High-dimensional neural recordings across multiple brain regions can be used to establish functional connectivity with good spatial and temporal resolution. We designed and implemented a novel method, Latent Dynamic Factor Analysis of High-dimensional time series (LDFA-H), which combines (a) a new approach to estimating the covariance structure among high-dimensional time series (for the observed variables) and (b) a new extension of probabilistic CCA to dynamic time series (for the latent variables). Our interest is in the cross-correlations among the latent variables which, in neural recordings, may capture the flow of information from one brain region to another. Simulations show that LDFA-H outperforms existing methods in the sense that it captures target factors even when within-region correlation due to noise dominates cross-region correlation. We applied our method to local field potential (LFP) recordings from 192 electrodes in Prefrontal Cortex (PFC) and visual area V4 during a memory-guided saccade task. The results capture time-varying lead-lag dependencies between PFC and V4, and display the associated spatial distribution of the signals.

We address the challenge of reconstructing historical counts from aggregated, possibly overlapping historical reports. For example, given the monthly and weekly sums, how can we find the daily counts of people infected with flu? We propose an approach, called ARES (Automatic REStoration), that performs automatic data reconstruction in two phases: (1) first, it estimates the sequence of historical counts utilizing domain knowledge, such as smoothness and periodicity of historical events; (2) then, it uses the estimated sequence to learn notable patterns in the target sequence to refine the reconstructed time series. In order to derive such patterns, ARES uses an annihilating filter technique. The idea is to learn a linear shift-invariant operator whose response to the desired sequence is (approximately) zero-yielding a set of null-space equations that the desired signal should satisfy, without the need for the accompanying data. The reconstruction accuracy can be further improved by applying the second phase iteratively. We evaluate ARES on the real epidemiological data from the Tycho project and demonstrate that ARES recovers historical data from aggregated reports with high accuracy. In particular, it considerably outperforms top competitors, including least squares approximation and the more advanced H-FUSE method (42% and 34% improvement based on average RMSE, respectively).

In this paper, we address the challenge of recovering a time sequence of counts from aggregated historical data. For example, given a mixture of the monthly and weekly sums, how can we find the daily counts of people infected with flu? In general, what is the best way to recover historical counts from aggregated, possibly overlapping historical reports, in the presence of missing values? Equally importantly, how much should we trust this reconstruction? We propose H-Fuse, a novel method that solves above problems by allowing injection of domain knowledge in a principled way, and turning the task into a well-defined optimization problem. H-Fuse has the following desirable properties: (a) Effectiveness, recovering historical data from aggregated reports with high accuracy; (b) Self-awareness, providing an assessment of when the recovery is not reliable; (c) Scalability, computationally linear on the size of the input data. Experiments on the real data (epidemiology counts from the Tycho project [13]) demonstrates that H-FUSE reconstructs the original data 30 – 81% better than the least squares method.