Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the _state-space point process_ (S2P2) model, a novel and performant model that leverages techniques derived for modern deep state-space models (SSMs) to overcome limitations of existing MTPP models, while simultaneously imbuing strong inductive biases for continuous-time event sequences that other discrete sequence models (i.e., RNNs, transformers) do not capture. Inspired by the classical linear Hawkes processes, we propose an architecture that interleaves stochastic jump differential equations with nonlinearities to create a highly expressive intensity-based MTPP model, without the need for restrictive parametric assumptions for the intensity. Our approach enables efficient training and inference with a parallel scan, bringing linear complexity and sublinear scaling while retaining expressivity to MTPPs. Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods across eight real-world datasets, delivering an average improvement of 33% over the best existing approaches.

Transformers and linear state space models can be evaluated in parallel on modern hardware, but evaluating nonlinear RNNs appears to be an inherently sequential problem. Recently, however, Lim et al. '24 developed an approach called DEER, which evaluates nonlinear RNNs in parallel by posing the states as the solution to a fixed-point problem. They derived a parallel form of Newton's method to solve the fixed-point problem and achieved significant speedups over sequential evaluation. However, the computational complexity of DEER is cubic in the state size, and the algorithm can suffer from numerical instability. We address these limitations with two novel contributions. To reduce the computational complexity, we apply quasi-Newton approximations and show they converge comparably to Newton, use less memory, and are faster. To stabilize DEER, we leverage a connection between the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and Kalman smoothing, which we call ELK. This connection allows us to stabilize Newton's method while using efficient parallelized Kalman smoothing algorithms to retain performance. Through several experiments, we show that these innovations allow for parallel evaluation of nonlinear RNNs at larger scales and with greater stability.

An important problem in time-series analysis is modeling systems with time-varying dynamics. Probabilistic models with joint continuous and discrete latent states offer interpretable, efficient, and experimentally useful descriptions of such data. Commonly used models include autoregressive hidden Markov models (ARHMMs) and switching linear dynamical systems (SLDSs), each with its own advantages and disadvantages. ARHMMs permit exact inference and easy parameter estimation, but are parameter intensive when modeling long dependencies, and hence are prone to overfitting. In contrast, SLDSs can capture long-range dependencies in a parameter efficient way through Markovian latent dynamics, but present an intractable likelihood and a challenging parameter estimation task. In this paper, we propose _switching autoregressive low-rank tensor_ SALT models, which retain the advantages of both approaches while ameliorating the weaknesses. SALT parameterizes the tensor of an ARHMM with a low-rank factorization to control the number of parameters and allow longer range dependencies without overfitting. We prove theoretical and discuss practical connections between SALT, linear dynamical systems, and SLDSs. We empirically demonstrate quantitative advantages of SALT models on a range of simulated and real prediction tasks, including behavioral and neural datasets. Furthermore, the learned low-rank tensor provides novel insights into temporal dependencies within each discrete state.

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) is an inference algorithm for state space models that approximates the posterior by sampling from a sequence of target distributions. The target distributions are often chosen to be the filtering distributions, but these ignore information from future observations, leading to practical and theoretical limitations in inference and model learning. We introduce SIXO, a method that instead learns target distributions that approximate the smoothing distributions, incorporating information from all observations. The key idea is to use density ratio estimation to fit functions that warp the filtering distributions into the smoothing distributions. We then use SMC with these learned targets to define a variational objective for model and proposal learning. SIXO yields provably tighter log marginal lower bounds and offers more accurate posterior inferences and parameter estimates in a variety of domains.

Policies for partially observed Markov decision processes can be efficiently learned by imitating expert policies generated using asymmetric information. Unfortunately, existing approaches for this kind of imitation learning have a serious flaw: the expert does not know what the trainee cannot see, and as a result may encourage actions that are sub-optimal or unsafe under partial information. To address this issue, we derive an update which, when applied iteratively to an expert, maximizes the expected reward of the trainee’s policy. Using this update, we construct a computationally efficient algorithm, adaptive asymmetric DAgger (A2D), that jointly trains the expert and trainee policies. We then show that A2D allows the trainee to safely imitate the modified expert, and outperforms policies learned either by imitating a fixed expert or through direct reinforcement learning.

Deterministic models are approximations of reality that are easy to interpret and often easier to build than stochastic alternatives. Unfortunately, as nature is capricious, observational data can never be fully explained by deterministic models in practice. Observation and process noise need to be added to adapt deterministic models to behave stochastically, such that they are capable of explaining and extrapolating from noisy data. We investigate and address computational inefficiencies that arise from adding process noise to deterministic simulators that fail to return for certain inputs; a property we describe as ’brittle’. We show how to train a conditional normalizing flow to propose perturbations such that the simulator succeeds with high probability, increasing computational efficiency.

Many problems in machine learning and statistics involve nested expectations and thus do not permit conventional Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. For such problems, one must nest estimators, such that terms in an outer estimator themselves involve calculation of a separate, nested, estimation. We investigate the statistical implications of nesting MC estimators, including cases of multiple levels of nesting, and establish the conditions under which they converge. We derive corresponding rates of convergence and provide empirical evidence that these rates are observed in practice. We further establish a number of pitfalls that can arise from naive nesting of MC estimators, provide guidelines about how these can be avoided, and lay out novel methods for reformulating certain classes of nested expectation problems into single expectations, leading to improved convergence rates. We demonstrate the applicability of our work by using our results to develop a new estimator for discrete Bayesian experimental design problems and derive error bounds for a class of variational objectives.