Implicit functions such as Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs), occupancy networks, and signed distance functions (SDFs) have become pivotal in computer vision for reconstructing detailed object shapes from sparse views. Achieving optimal performance with these models can be challenging due to the extreme sparsity of inputs and distribution shifts induced by data corruptions. To this end, large, noise-free synthetic datasets can serve as shape priors to help models fill in gaps, but the resulting reconstructions must be approached with caution. Uncertainty estimation is crucial for assessing the quality of these reconstructions, particularly in identifying areas where the model is uncertain about the parts it has inferred from the prior. In this paper, we introduce Dropsembles, a novel method for uncertainty estimation in tuned implicit functions. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through a series of experiments, starting with toy examples and progressing to a real-world scenario. Specifically, we train a Convolutional Occupancy Network on synthetic anatomical data and test it on low-resolution MRI segmentations of the lumbar spine. Our results show that Dropsembles achieve the accuracy and calibration levels of deep ensembles but with significantly less computational cost.

Generative modeling is increasingly important for data-driven computational design. Conventional approaches pair a generative model with a discriminative model to select or guide samples toward optimized designs. Yet discriminative models often struggle in data-scarce settings, common in scientific applications, and are unreliable in the tails of the distribution where optimal designs typically lie. We introduce generative property enhancer (GPE), an approach that implicitly guides generation by matching samples with lower property values to higher-value ones. Formulated as conditional density estimation, our framework defines a target distribution with improved properties, compelling the generative model to produce enhanced, diverse designs without auxiliary predictors. GPE is simple, scalable, end-to-end, modality-agnostic, and integrates seamlessly with diverse generative model architectures and losses. We demonstrate competitive empirical results on standard _in silico_ offline (non-sequential) protein fitness optimization benchmarks. Finally, we propose iterative training on a combination of limited real data and self-generated synthetic data, enabling extrapolation beyond the original property ranges.

Many scientific and industrial applications require the joint optimization of multiple, potentially competing objectives. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) is a sample-efficient framework for identifying Pareto-optimal solutions. At the heart of MOBO is the acquisition function, which determines the next candidate to evaluate by navigating the best compromises among the objectives. Acquisition functions that rely on integrating over the objective space scale poorly to a large number of objectives. In this paper, we show a natural connection between the non-dominated solutions and the highest multivariate rank, which coincides with the extreme level line of the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF). Motivated by this link, we propose the CDF indicator, a Pareto-compliant metric for evaluating the quality of approximate Pareto sets, that can complement the popular hypervolume indicator. We then introduce an acquisition function based on the CDF indicator, called BOtied. BOtied can be implemented efficiently with copulas, a statistical tool for modeling complex, high-dimensional distributions. Our experiments on a variety of synthetic and real-world experiments demonstrate that BOtied outperforms state-of-the-art MOBO algorithms while being computationally efficient for many objectives.

Across scientific domains, generating new models or optimizing existing ones while meeting specific criteria is crucial. Traditional machine learning frameworks for guided design use a generative model and a surrogate model (discriminator), requiring large datasets. However, real-world scientific applications often have limited data and complex landscapes, making data-hungry models inefficient or impractical. We propose a new framework, PropEn, inspired by ``matching'', which enables implicit guidance without training a discriminator. By matching each sample with a similar one that has a better property value, we create a larger training dataset that inherently indicates the direction of improvement. Matching, combined with an encoder-decoder architecture, forms a domain-agnostic generative framework for property enhancement. We show that training with a matched dataset approximates the gradient of the property of interest while remaining within the data distribution, allowing efficient design optimization. Extensive evaluations in toy problems and scientific applications, such as therapeutic protein design and airfoil optimization, demonstrate PropEn's advantages over common baselines. Notably, the protein design results are validated with wet lab experiments, confirming the competitiveness and effectiveness of our approach. Our code is available at https://github.com/prescient-design/propen.

Despite the major progress of deep models as learning machines, uncertainty estimation remains a major challenge. Existing solutions rely on modified loss functions or architectural changes. We propose to compensate for the lack of built-in uncertainty estimates by supplementing any network, retrospectively, with a subsequent vine copula model, in an overall compound we call Vine-Copula Neural Network (VCNN). Through synthetic and real-data experiments, we show that VCNNs could be task (regression/classification) and architecture (recurrent, fully connected) agnostic while providing reliable and better-calibrated uncertainty estimates, comparable to state-of-the-art built-in uncertainty solutions.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing many areas of our lives, leading a new era of technological advancement. Particularly, the transportation sector would benefit from the progress in AI and advance the development of intelligent transportation systems. Building intelligent transportation systems requires an intricate combination of artificial intelligence and mobility analysis. The past few years have seen rapid development in transportation applications using advanced deep neural networks. However, such deep neural networks are difficult to interpret and lack robustness, which slows the deployment of these AI-powered algorithms in practice. To improve their usability, increasing research efforts have been devoted to developing interpretable and robust machine learning methods, among which the causal inference approach recently gained traction as it provides interpretable and actionable information. Moreover, most of these methods are developed for image or sequential data which do not satisfy specific requirements of mobility data analysis. This vision paper emphasizes research challenges in deep learning-based mobility analysis that require interpretability and robustness, summarizes recent developments in using causal inference for improving the interpretability and robustness of machine learning methods, and highlights opportunities in developing causally-enabled machine learning models tailored for mobility analysis. This research direction will make AI in the transportation sector more interpretable and reliable, thus contributing to safer, more efficient, and more sustainable future transportation systems.

Causal inference using observational data is challenging, especially in the bivariate case. Through the minimum description length principle, we link the postulate of independence between the generating mechanisms of the cause and of the effect given the cause to quantile regression. Based on this theory, we develop Bivariate Quantile Causal Discovery (bQCD), a new method to distinguish cause from effect assuming no confounding, selection bias or feedback. Because it uses multiple quantile levels instead of the conditional mean only, bQCD is adaptive not only to additive, but also to multiplicative or even location-scale generating mechanisms. To illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, we perform an extensive empirical comparison on both synthetic and real datasets. This study shows that bQCD is robust across different implementations of the method (i.e., the quantile regression), computationally efficient, and compares favorably to state-of-the-art methods.

We present a neural network (NN) approach to fit and predict implied volatility surfaces (IVSs). Atypically to standard NN applications, financial industry practitioners use such models equally to replicate market prices and to value other financial instruments. In other words, low training losses are as important as generalization capabilities. Importantly, IVS models need to generate realistic arbitrage-free option prices, meaning that no portfolio can lead to risk-free profits. We propose an approach guaranteeing the absence of arbitrage opportunities by penalizing the loss using soft constraints. Furthermore, our method can be combined with standard IVS models in quantitative finance, thus providing a NN-based correction when such models fail at replicating observed market prices. This lets practitioners use our approach as a plug-in on top of classical methods. Empirical results show that this approach is particularly useful when only sparse or erroneous data are available. We also quantify the uncertainty of the model predictions in regions with few or no observations. We further explore how deeper NNs improve over shallower ones, as well as other properties of the network architecture. We benchmark our method against standard IVS models. By evaluating our method on both training sets, and testing sets, namely, we highlight both their capacity to reproduce observed prices and predict new ones.

We introduce the vine copula autoencoder (VCAE), a flexible generative model for high-dimensional distributions built in a straightforward three-step procedure. First, an autoencoder (AE) compresses the data into a lower dimensional representation. Second, the multivariate distribution of the encoded data is estimated with vine copulas. Third, a generative model is obtained by combining the estimated distribution with the decoder part of the AE. As such, the proposed approach can transform any already trained AE into a flexible generative model at a low computational cost. This is an advantage over existing generative models such as adversarial networks and variational AEs which can be difficult to train and can impose strong assumptions on the latent space. Experiments on MNIST, Street View House Numbers and Large-Scale CelebFaces Attributes datasets show that VCAEs can achieve competitive results to standard baselines.

We provide single-model estimates of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty for deep neural networks. To estimate aleatoric uncertainty, we propose Simultaneous Quantile Regression (SQR), a loss function to learn all the conditional quantiles of a given target variable. These quantiles can be used to compute well-calibrated prediction intervals. To estimate epistemic uncertainty, we propose Orthonormal Certificates (OCs), a collection of diverse non-constant functions that map all training samples to zero. These certificates map out-of-distribution examples to non-zero values, signaling epistemic uncertainty. Our uncertainty estimators are computationally attractive, as they do not require ensembling or retraining deep models, and achieve state-of-the-art performance.