The Distributional Random Forest (DRF) is a recently introduced Random Forest algorithm to estimate multivariate conditional distributions. Due to its general estimation procedure, it can be employed to estimate a wide range of targets such as conditional average treatment effects, conditional quantiles, and conditional correlations. However, only results about the consistency and convergence rate of the DRF prediction are available so far. We characterize the asymptotic distribution of DRF and develop a bootstrap approximation of it. This allows us to derive inferential tools for quantifying standard errors and the construction of confidence regions that have asymptotic coverage guarantees. In simulation studies, we empirically validate the developed theory for inference of low-dimensional targets and for testing distributional differences between two populations

Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the continuous treatment regime. Scalable sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to understand the ignorance induced in causal estimates when these assumptions are relaxed are less studied. Here, we develop a continuous treatment-effect marginal sensitivity model (CMSM) and derive bounds that agree with the observed data and a researcher-defined level of hidden confounding. We introduce a scalable algorithm and uncertainty-aware deep models to derive and estimate these bounds for high-dimensional, large-sample observational data. We work in concert with climate scientists interested in the climatological impacts of human emissions on cloud properties using satellite observations from the past 15 years. This problem is known to be complicated by many unobserved confounders.

Random Forest is a successful and widely used regression and classification algorithm. Part of its appeal and reason for its versatility is its (implicit) construction of a kernel-type weighting function on training data, which can also be used for targets other than the original mean estimation. We propose a novel forest construction for multivariate responses based on their joint conditional distribution, independent of the estimation target and the data model. It uses a new splitting criterion based on the MMD distributional metric, which is suitable for detecting heterogeneity in multivariate distributions. The induced weights define an estimate of the full conditional distribution, which in turn can be used for arbitrary and potentially complicated targets of interest. The method is very versatile and convenient to use, as we illustrate on a wide range of examples. The code is available as Python and R packages drf.

Abstract When training a deep neural network for image classification, one can broadly distinguish between two types of latent features of images that will drive the classification. We can divide latent features into (i) ‘core’ or ‘conditionally invariant’ features $$C$$ C whose distribution $$C\vert Y$$ C|Y , conditional on the classY, does not change substantially across domains and (ii) ‘style’ features $$S$$ S whose distribution $$S\vert Y$$ S|Y can change substantially across domains. Examples for style features include position, rotation, image quality or brightness but also more complex ones like hair color, image quality or posture for images of persons. Our goal is to minimize a loss that is robust under changes in the distribution of these style features. In contrast to previous work, we assume that the domain itself is not observed and hence a latent variable. We do assume that we can sometimes observe a typically discrete identifier or “ $$\mathrm {ID}$$ ID variable”. In some applications we know, for example, that two images show the same person, and $$\mathrm {ID}$$ ID then refers to the identity of the person. The proposed method requires only a small fraction of images to have $$\mathrm {ID}$$ ID information. We group observations if they share the same class and identifier $$(Y,\mathrm {ID})=(y,\mathrm {id})$$ (Y,ID)=(y,id) and penalize the conditional variance of the prediction or the loss if we condition on $$(Y,\mathrm {ID})$$ (Y,ID) . Using a causal framework, this conditional variance regularization (CoRe) is shown to protect asymptotically against shifts in the distribution of the style variables in a partially linear structural equation model. Empirically, we show that the CoRepenalty improves predictive accuracy substantially in settings where domain changes occur in terms of image quality, brightness and color while we also look at more complex changes such as changes in movement and posture.

When performing regression on a data set with $p$ variables, it is often of interest to go beyond using main linear effects and include interactions as products between individual variables. For small-scale problems, these interactions can be computed explicitly but this leads to a computational complexity of at least $\mathcal{O}(p^2)$ if done naively. This cost can be prohibitive if $p$ is very large. We introduce a new randomised algorithm that is able to discover interactions with high probability and under mild conditions has a runtime that is subquadratic in $p$. We show that strong interactions can be discovered in almost linear time, whilst finding weaker interactions requires $\mathcal{O}(p^\alpha)$ operations for $1<\alpha<2$ depending on their strength. The underlying idea is to transform interaction search into a closest pair problem which can be solved efficiently in subquadratic time. The algorithm is called $xyz$ and is implemented in the language R. We demonstrate its efficiency for application to genome-wide association studies, where more than $10^{11}$ interactions can be screened in under $280$ seconds with a single-core $1.2$ GHz CPU.

We present DUAL-LOCO, a communication-efficient algorithm for distributed statistical estimation. DUAL-LOCO assumes that the data is distributed across workers according to the features rather than the samples. It requires only a single round of communication where low-dimensional random projections are used to approximate the dependencies between features available to different workers. We show that DUAL-LOCO has bounded approximation error which only depends weakly on the number of workers. We compare DUAL-LOCO against a state-of-the-art distributed optimization method on a variety of real world datasets and show that it obtains better speedups while retaining good accuracy. In particular, DUAL-LOCO allows for fast cross validation as only part of the algorithm depends on the regularization parameter.

Adaptive stochastic gradient methods such as AdaGrad have gained popularity in particular for training deep neural networks. The most commonly used and studied variant maintains a diagonal matrix approximation to second order information by accumulating past gradients which are used to tune the step size adaptively. In certain situations the full-matrix variant of AdaGrad is expected to attain better performance, however in high dimensions it is computationally impractical. We present Ada-LR and RadaGrad two computationally efficient approximations to full-matrix AdaGrad based on randomized dimensionality reduction. They are able to capture dependencies between features and achieve similar performance to full-matrix AdaGrad but at a much smaller computational cost. We show that the regret of Ada-LR is close to the regret of full-matrix AdaGrad which can have an up-to exponentially smaller dependence on the dimension than the diagonal variant. Empirically, we show that Ada-LR and RadaGrad perform similarly to full-matrix AdaGrad. On the task of training convolutional neural networks as well as recurrent neural networks, RadaGrad achieves faster convergence than diagonal AdaGrad.

Large-scale data analysis poses both statistical and computational problems which need to be addressed simultaneously. A solution is often straightforward if the data are homogeneous: one can use classical ideas of subsampling and mean aggregation to get a computationally efficient solution with acceptable statistical accuracy, where the aggregation step simply averages the results obtained on distinct subsets of the data. However, if the data exhibit inhomogeneities (and typically they do), the same approach will be inadequate, as it will be unduly influenced by effects that are not persistent across all the data due to, for example, outliers or time-varying effects. We show that a tweak to the aggregation step can produce an estimator of effects which are common to all data, and hence interesting for interpretation and often leading to better prediction than pooled effects.

We propose a simple method to learn linear causal cyclic models in the presence of latent variables. The method relies on equilibrium data of the model recorded under a specific kind of interventions (``shift interventions''). The location and strength of these interventions do not have to be known and can be estimated from the data. Our method, called BACKSHIFT, only uses second moments of the data and performs simple joint matrix diagonalization, applied to differences between covariance matrices. We give a sufficient and necessary condition for identifiability of the system, which is fulfilled almost surely under some quite general assumptions if and only if there are at least three distinct experimental settings, one of which can be pure observational data. We demonstrate the performance on some simulated data and applications in flow cytometry and financial time series.

Random forests were introduced as a machine learning tool in Breiman (2001) and have since proven to be very popular and powerful for high-dimensional regression and classification. For regression, random forests give an accurate approximation of the conditional mean of a response variable. It is shown here that random forests provide information about the full conditional distribution of the response variable, not only about the conditional mean. Conditional quantiles can be inferred with quantile regression forests, a generalisation of random forests. Quantile regression forests give a non-parametric and accurate way of estimating conditional quantiles for high-dimensional predictor variables. The algorithm is shown to be consistent. Numerical examples suggest that the algorithm is competitive in terms of predictive power.