Traffic prediction remains a key challenge in spatio-temporal data mining, despite progress in deep learning. Accurate forecasting is hindered by the complex influence of external factors such as traffic accidents and regulations, often overlooked by existing models due to limited data integration. To address these limitations, we present two enriched traffic datasets from Tokyo and California, incorporating traffic accident and regulation data. Leveraging these datasets, we propose ConFormer (Conditional Transformer), a novel framework that integrates graph propagation with guided normalization layer. This design dynamically adjusts spatial and temporal node relationships based on historical patterns, enhancing predictive accuracy. Our model surpasses the state-of-the-art STAEFormer in both predictive performance and efficiency, achieving lower computational costs and reduced parameter demands. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that ConFormer consistently outperforms mainstream spatio-temporal baselines across multiple metrics, underscoring its potential to advance traffic prediction research. The code is released in https://github.com/Dreamzz5/ConFormer.

Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing how complex real-world systems evolve over time. However, existing methods are predominantly black-box models. They lack interpretability in their clustering decisions and fail to provide semantic explanations of why clusters form or how they evolve, severely limiting their use in safety-critical domains such as healthcare or transportation. To address these limitations, we propose an end-to-end interpretable framework that maps continuous graph embeddings into discrete semantic concepts through learnable prototypes. Specifically, we first decompose node representations into orthogonal role and clustering subspaces, so that nodes with similar roles (e.g., hubs, bridges) but different cluster affiliations can be properly distinguished. We then introduce five node role prototypes (Leader, Contributor, Wanderer, Connector, Newcomer) in the role subspace as semantic anchors, transforming continuous embeddings into discrete concepts to facilitate LLM understanding of node roles within communities. Finally, we design a hierarchical LLM reasoning mechanism to generate both clustering results and natural language explanations, while providing consistency feedback as weak supervision to refine node representations. Experimental results on four synthetic and six real-world benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness, interpretability, and robustness of DyG-RoLLM. Code is available at https: //github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-RoLLM.

Popularity bias occurs when popular items are recommended far more frequently than they should be, negatively impacting both user experience and recommendation accuracy. Existing debiasing methods mitigate popularity bias often uniformly across all users and only partially consider the time evolution of users or items. However, users have different levels of preference for item popularity, and this preference is evolving over time. To address these issues, we propose a novel method called CausalEPP (Causal Intervention on Evolving Personal Popularity) for taming recommendation bias, which accounts for the evolving personal popularity of users. Specifically, we first introduce a metric called Evolving Personal Popularity to quantify each user's preference for popular items. Then, we design a causal graph that integrates evolving personal popularity into the conformity effect, and apply deconfounded training to mitigate the popularity bias of the causal graph. During inference, we consider the evolution consistency between users and items to achieve a better recommendation. Empirical studies demonstrate that CausalEPP outperforms baseline methods in reducing popularity bias while improving recommendation accuracy.

Large-scale human mobility exhibits spatial and temporal patterns that can assist policymakers in decision making. Although traditional prediction models attempt to capture these patterns, they are often affected by nonperiodic public events, such as disasters and occasional celebrations. Since regular human mobility patterns are affected by these events, estimating their causal effects is critical to accurate mobility predictions. News articles provide unique perspectives on these events, though processing them is a challenge. In this study, we propose a causality based prediction model, CausalMob, to analyze the causal effects of public events. We first utilize large language models (LLMs) to extract human intentions from news and transform them into features that act as causal treatments. Next, the model learns representations of spatio-temporal regional covariates from multiple data sources to serve as confounders for causal inference. Finally, we present a causal effect estimation framework to ensure that event features remain independent of confounders during prediction. Based on large-scale real-world data, the experimental results show that the proposed model excels in human mobility prediction, outperforming state-of-the-art models.

Graphs are ubiquitous for modeling complex relationships between objects across various fields. Graph neural networks (GNNs) have become a mainstream technique for graph-based applications, but their performance heavily relies on abundant labeled data. To reduce labeling requirement, pre-training and prompt learning has become a popular alternative. However, most existing prompt methods do not distinguish between homophilic and heterophilic characteristics in graphs. In particular, many real-world graphs are non-homophilic-neither strictly nor uniformly homophilic-as they exhibit varying homophilic and heterophilic patterns across graphs and nodes. In this paper, we propose ProNoG, a novel pre-training and prompt learning framework for such non-homophilic graphs. First, we examineexisting graph pre-training methods, providing insights into the choice of pre-training tasks. Second, recognizing that each node exhibits unique non-homophilic characteristics, we propose a conditional network to characterize node-specific patterns in downstream tasks. Finally, we thoroughly evaluate and analyze ProNoG through extensive experiments on ten public datasets.

In the field of multi-document summarization (MDS), transformerbased models have demonstrated remarkable success, yet they suffer an input length limitation.Current methods apply truncation after the retrieval process to fit the context length; however, they heavily depend on manually well-crafted queries, which are impractical to create for each document set for MDS.Additionally, these methods retrieve information at a coarse granularity, leading to the inclusion of irrelevant content.To address these issues, we propose a novel retrieval-based framework that integrates query selection and document ranking and shortening into a unified process.Our approach identifies the most salient elementary discourse units (EDUs) from input documents and utilizes them as latent queries.These queries guide the document ranking by calculating relevance scores.Instead of traditional truncation, our approach filters out irrelevant EDUs to fit the context length, ensuring that only critical information is preserved for summarization.We evaluate our framework on multiple MDS datasets, demonstrating consistent improvements in ROUGE metrics while confirming its scalability and flexibility across diverse model architectures.Additionally, we validate its effectiveness through an in-depth analysis, emphasizing its ability to dynamically select appropriate queries and accurately rank documents based on their relevance scores.These results demonstrate that our framework effectively addresses context-length constraints, establishing it as a robust and reliable solution for MDS. 1 * Both authors contributed equally to this research.

Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of complex real-world dynamic systems. Matrix factorization-based methods are promising approaches for this task; however, these methods often struggle with scalability and can be time-consuming when applied to large-scale dynamic graphs. Moreover, they tend to lack robustness and are vulnerable to real-world noisy data. To address these issues, we make three key contributions. First, to improve scalability, we propose temporal separated matrix factorization, where a single matrix is divided into multiple smaller matrices for independent factorization, resulting in faster computation. Second, to improve robustness, we introduce bi-clustering regularization, which jointly optimizes graph embedding and clustering, thereby filtering out noisy features from the graph embeddings. Third, to further enhance effectiveness and efficiency, we propose selective embedding updating, where we update only the embeddings of dynamic nodes while the embeddings of static nodes are fixed among different timestamps. Experimental results on six synthetic and five real-world benchmarks demonstrate the scalability, robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. Source code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-MF.

Road trajectory generation creates synthetic yet realistic trajectories to tackle data collection costs and privacy concerns. Existing methods generate a trajectory either segment-by-segment using sequence models or holistically in one step using diffusion models. Sequence-based models have good regularity and consistency (i.e., resemble the input trajectories) but lack diversity, while diffusion-based models enhance diversity but sacrifice regularity and consistency. To combine the merits of existing methods, we propose Seed, by bridging sequence and diffusion models for trajectory generation. In particular, Seed adopts a conditional diffusion structure, where a Transformer models the movement of each trajectory along the road segments, and conditioned on the Transformer's output, a diffusion model recovers the next road segment from random noise. The rationale is that the Transformer captures sequential patterns for regularity and consistency, while the diffusion model introduces diversity by recovering from noise. We use a trajectory reconstruction task to train Seed, and design a curriculum learning strategy to accelerate convergence. We compare Seed with 8 state-of-the-art trajectory generation methods on 3 datasets, and the results show that Seed improves the best-performing baseline by over 50%.

Abstract Trajectories serve as a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems, playing an important role in many applications such as traffic flow prediction, route planning, and urban management. However, the availability of such data is limited due to privacy issues, ethical concerns, and the high cost associated with infrastructure deployment. In recent years, rapidly developing generative models such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), and Diffusion Models (DMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in learning complex data distributions and generating synthetic data, thereby alleviating the data accessibility issue. In this survey, we systematically review the existing literature on deep generative models that address the problem of trajectory generation. First, we classify the existing literature into two categories: unconditional and conditional trajectory generation. In unconditional generation, trajectories are generated without contextual constraints, whereas conditional generation incorporates several important factors such as road network topology, time of day, and user preferences to guide the trajectory generation process. Then, for each category, we further classify the literature into three methodological types, including VAEs, GANs, and DMs, and analyze how these models address key challenges under different settings. Finally, we discuss promising directions for future research and hope to inspire further advances in trajectory generation.

Next point-of-interest (POI) recommendationpredicts user’s next movement and facilitates location-based applications such as destination suggestion and travel planning. State-of-the-art (SOTA) methods learn an adaptive graph from user trajectories and compute POI representations using graph neural networks (GNNs). However, a single graph cannot capture thediverse dependenciesamong the POIs (e.g., geographical proximity and transition frequency). To tackle this limitation, we propose theAdaptiveGraphContrastiveLearning(AGCL) framework. AGCL constructs multiple adaptive graphs, each modeling a kind of POI dependency and producing one POI representation; and the POI representations from different graphs are merged into amulti-facet representationthat encodes comprehensive information. To train the POI representations, we tailor agraph-based contrastive learning, which encourages the representations of similar POIs to align and dissimilar POIs to differentiate. Moreover, to learn the sequential regularities of user trajectories, we design an attention mechanism to integrate spatial-temporal information into the POI representations. An explicitspatial-temporal biasis also employed to adjust the predictions for enhanced accuracy. We compare AGCL with 10 state-of-the-art baselines on 3 datasets. The results show that AGCL outperforms all baselines and achieves an improvement of 10.14% over the best performing baseline in average accuracy.

Training models on spatio-temporal (ST) data poses an open problem due to the complicated and diverse nature of the data itself, and it is challenging to ensure the model's performance directly trained on the original ST data. While limiting the variety of training data can make training easier, it can also lead to a lack of knowledge and information for the model, resulting in a decrease in performance. To address this challenge, we presented an innovative paradigm that incorporates three separate forms of curriculum learning specifically targeting from spatial, temporal, and quantile perspectives. Furthermore, our framework incorporates a stacking fusion module to combine diverse information from three types of curriculum learning, resulting in a strong and thorough learning process. We demonstrated the effectiveness of this framework with extensive empirical evaluations, highlighting its better performance in addressing complex ST challenges. We provided thorough ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of our curriculum and to explain how it contributes to the improvement of learning efficiency on ST data.

Anomaly detection significantly enhances the robustness of cloud systems. While neural network-based methods have recently demonstrated strong advantages, they encounter practical challenges in cloud environments: the contradiction between the impracticality of maintaining a unique model for each service and the limited ability to deal with diverse normal patterns by a unified model, as well as issues with handling heavy traffic in real time and short-term anomaly detection sensitivity. Thus, we propose MACE, a multi-normal-pattern accommodated and efficient anomaly detection method in the frequency domain for time series anomaly detection. There are three novel characteristics of it: (i) a pattern extraction mechanism excelling at handling diverse normal patterns with a unified model, which enables the model to identify anomalies by examining the correlation between the data sample and its service normal pattern, instead of solely focusing on the data sample itself; (ii) a dualistic convolution mechanism that amplifies short-term anomalies in the time domain and hinders the reconstruction of anomalies in the frequency domain, which enlarges the reconstruction error disparity between anomaly and normality and facilitates anomaly detection; (iii) leveraging the sparsity and parallelism of frequency domain to enhance model efficiency. We theoretically and experimentally prove that using a strategically selected subset of Fourier bases can not only reduce computational overhead but is also profitable to distinguish anomalies, compared to using the complete spectrum. Moreover, extensive experiments demonstrate MACE's effectiveness in handling diverse normal patterns with a unified model and it achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency.

Spatiotemporal time series forecasting plays a key role in a wide range of real-world applications. While significant progress has been made in this area, fully capturing and leveraging spatiotemporal heterogeneity remains a fundamental challenge. Therefore, we propose a novel Heterogeneity-Informed Meta-Parameter Learning scheme. Specifically, our approach implicitly captures spatiotemporal heterogeneity through learning spatial and temporal embeddings, which can be viewed as a clustering process. Then, a novel spatiotemporal meta-parameter learning paradigm is proposed to learn spatiotemporal-specific parameters from meta-parameter pools, which is informed by the captured heterogeneity. Based on these ideas, we develop a Heterogeneity-Informed Spatiotemporal Meta-Network (HimNet) for spatiotemporal time series forecasting. Extensive experiments on five widely-used benchmarks demonstrate our method achieves state-of-the-art performance while exhibiting superior interpretability. Our code is available at https://github.com/XDZhelheim/HimNet.

Free-space trajectory similarity calculation, e.g., DTW, Hausdorff, and Fréchet, often incur quadratic time complexity, thus learning-based methods have been proposed to accelerate the computation. The core idea is to train an encoder to transform trajectories into representation vectors and then compute vector similarity to approximate the ground truth. However, existing methods face dual challenges of effectiveness and efficiency: 1) they all utilize Euclidean distance to compute representation similarity, which leads to the severe curse of dimensionality issue - reducing the distinguishability among representations and significantly affecting the accuracy of subsequent similarity search tasks; 2) most of them are trained in triplets manner and often necessitate additional information which downgrades the efficiency; 3) previous studies, while emphasizing the scalability in terms of efficiency, overlooked the deterioration of effectiveness when the dataset size grows. To cope with these issues, we propose a simple, yet accurate, fast, scalable model that only uses a single-layer vanilla transformer encoder as the feature extractor and employs tailored representation similarity functions to approximate various ground truth similarity measures. Extensive experiments demonstrate our model significantly mitigates the curse of dimensionality issue and outperforms the state-of-the-arts in effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability.

Tensor time series (TTS) data, a generalization of one-dimensional time series on a high-dimensional space, is ubiquitous in real-world applications. Compared to modeling time series or multivariate time series, which has received much attention and achieved tremendous progress in recent years, tensor time series has been paid less effort. However, properly coping with the TTS is a much more challenging task, due to its high-dimensional and complex inner structure. In this article, we start by revealing the structure of TTS data from afn statistical view of point. Then, in line with this analysis, we perform T ensor T ime S eries forecasting via a proposed Multi-way Norm alization ( TTS-Norm ), which effectively disentangles multiple heterogeneous low-dimensional substructures from the original high-dimensional structure. Finally, we design a novel objective function for TTS forecasting, accounting for the numerical heterogeneity among different low-dimensional subspaces of TTS. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets verify the superior performance of our proposed model. 1

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is a paramount and fundamental problem in many real-world applications. The core issue in MTS forecasting is how to effectively model complex spatial-temporal patterns. In this paper, we develop a adaptive, interpretable and scalable forecasting framework, which seeks to individually model each component of the spatial-temporal patterns. We name this framework SCNN, as an acronym ofStructuredComponent-basedNeuralNetwork. SCNN works with a pre-defined generative process of MTS, which arithmetically characterizes the latent structure of the spatial-temporal patterns. In line with its reverse process, SCNN decouples MTS data into structured and heterogeneous components and then respectively extrapolates the evolution of these components, the dynamics of which are more traceable and predictable than the original MTS. Extensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate that SCNN can achieve superior performance over state-of-the-art models on three real-world datasets. Additionally, we examine SCNN with different configurations and perform in-depth analyses of the properties of SCNN.

Urban time series data forecasting featuring significant contributions to sustainable development is widely studied as an essential task of the smart city. However, with the dramatic and rapid changes in the world environment, the assumption that data obey Independent Identically Distribution is undermined by the subsequent changes in data distribution, known as concept drift, leading to weak replicability and transferability of the model over unseen data. To address the issue, previous approaches typically retrain the model, forcing it to fit the most recent observed data. However, retraining is problematic in that it leads to model lag, consumption of resources, and model re-invalidation, causing the drift problem to be not well solved in realistic scenarios. In this study, we propose a new urban time series prediction model for the concept drift problem, which encodes the drift by considering the periodicity in the data and makes on-the-fly adjustments to the model based on the drift using a meta-dynamic network. Experiments on real-world datasets show that our design significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods and can be well generalized to existing prediction backbones by reducing their sensitivity to distribution changes.

With the rapid development of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), accurate traffic forecasting has emerged as a critical challenge. The key bottleneck lies in capturing the intricate spatio-temporal traffic patterns. In recent years, numerous neural networks with complicated architectures have been proposed to address this issue. However, the advancements in network architectures have encountered diminishing performance gains. In this study, we present a novel component called spatio-temporal adaptive embedding that can yield outstanding results with vanilla transformers. Our proposed Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Embedding transformer (STAEformer) achieves state-of-the-art performance on five real-world traffic forecasting datasets. Further experiments demonstrate that spatio-temporal adaptive embedding plays a crucial role in traffic forecasting by effectively capturing intrinsic spatio-temporal relations and chronological information in traffic time series.

Next Point-of-Interest (POI) recommendation plays a crucial role in urban mobility applications. Recently, POI recommendation models based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have been extensively studied and achieved, however, the effective incorporation of both spatial and temporal information into such GNN-based models remains challenging. Temporal information is extracted from users' trajectories, while spatial information is obtained from POIs. Extracting distinct fine-grained features unique to each piece of information is difficult since temporal information often includes spatial information, as users tend to visit nearby POIs. To address the challenge, we propose Mobility Graph Transformer (MobGT) that enables us to fully leverage graphs to capture both the spatial and temporal features in users' mobility patterns. MobGT combines individual spatial and temporal graph encoders to capture unique features and global user-location relations. Additionally, it incorporates a mobility encoder based on Graph Transformer to extract higher-order information between POIs. To address the long-tailed problem in spatial-temporal data, MobGT introduces a novel loss function, Tail Loss. Experimental results demonstrate that MobGT outperforms state-of-the-art models on various datasets and metrics, achieving 24% improvement on average. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Yukayo/MobGT.

Today, thanks to the rapid developing mobile and sensor networks in IoT (Internet of Things) systems, spatio-temporal big data are being constantly generated. They have brought us a data-driven possibility to sense and understand crowd mobility on a city scale. A fundamental task towards the next-generation mobility services, such as Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), is spatio-temporal predictive modeling of the geo-sensory signals. There is a recent line of research leveraging deep learning techniques to boost the forecasting performance on such tasks. While simulating the regularity of mobility behaviors (e.g., routines, periodicity) in a more sophisticated way, the existing studies ignore an important part of urban activities, i.e., events. Including holidays, extreme weathers, pandemic, accidents, various urban events happen from time to time and cause non-stationary phenomena, which by nature make the spatio-temporal forecasting task challenging. We thereby envision an event-aware urban mobility prediction model that is capable of fast adapting and making reliable predictions in different scenarios, which is crucial to decision making towards emergency response and urban resilience.

Mobility digital twin, which is a a virtual replica of the mobility in the physical world, is the key building block of modern smart city applications at a metropolitan scale, including traffic regulation, emergency management and epidemic control. To duplicate the mobility in the physical world and show the potential outcome based on either the current state or manipulated conditions, we are facing with three main challenges: 1) how to sense real-time human mobility at a large scale and assimilate different data sources to infer a dynamic city mobility state; 2) how to make an accurate prediction for the mobility replica that adapts with dynamic city mobility state; 3) how to simulate the mobility in response to different conditions. In this talk, we will present our recent studies, practices and perspectives on mobility digital twin in addressing these above challenges, with applications in the real-world scenarios with industrial connections.

Human mobility nowcasting is a fundamental research problem for intelligent transportation planning, disaster responses and management, etc. In particular, human mobility under big disasters such as hurricanes and pandemics deviates from its daily routine to a large extent, which makes the task more challenging. Existing works mainly focus on traffic or crowd flow prediction in normal situations. To tackle this problem, in this study, disaster-related Twitter data is incorporated as a covariate to understand the public awareness and attention about the disaster events and thus perceive their impacts on the human mobility. Accordingly, we propose a Meta-knowledge-Memorizable Spatio-Temporal Network (MemeSTN), which leverages memory network and meta-learning to fuse social media and human mobility data. Extensive experiments over three real-world disasters including Japan 2019 typhoon season, Japan 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and US 2019 hurricane season were conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed solution. Compared to the state-of-the-art spatio-temporal deep models and multivariate-time-series deep models, our model can achieve superior performance for nowcasting human mobility in disaster situations at both country level and state level.

Multi-variate time series (MTS) data is a ubiquitous class of data abstraction in the real world. Any instance of MTS is generated from a hybrid dynamical system and their specific dynamics are usually unknown. The hybrid nature of such a dynamical system is a result of complex external attributes, such as geographic location and time of day, each of which can be categorized into either spatial attributes or temporal attributes. Therefore, there are two fundamental views which can be used to analyze MTS data, namely the spatial view and the temporal view. Moreover, from each of these two views, we can partition the set of data samples of MTS into disjoint forecasting tasks in accordance with their associated attribute values. Then, samples of the same task will manifest similar forthcoming pattern, which is less sophisticated to be predicted in comparison with the original single-view setting. Considering this insight, we propose a novel multi-view multi-task (MVMT) learning framework for MTS forecasting. Instead of being explicitly presented in most scenarios, MVMT information is deeply concealed in the MTS data, which severely hinders the model from capturing it naturally. To this end, we develop two kinds of basic operations, namely task-wise affine transformation and task-wise normalization, respectively. Applying these two operations with prior knowledge on the spatial and temporal view allows the model to adaptively extract MVMT information while predicting. Extensive experiments on three datasets are conducted to illustrate that canonical architectures can be greatly enhanced by the MVMT learning framework in terms of both effectiveness and efficiency. In addition, we design rich case studies to reveal the properties of representations produced at different phases in the entire prediction procedure.

Predicting the density and flow of the crowd or traffic at a citywide level becomes possible by using the big data and cutting-edge AI technologies. It has been a very significant research topic with high social impact, which can be widely applied to emergency management, traffic regulation, and urban planning. In particular, by meshing a large urban area to a number of fine-grained mesh-grids, citywide crowd and traffic information in a continuous time period can be represented with 4D tensor (Timestep, Height, Width, Channel). Based on this idea, a series of methods have been proposed to address grid-based prediction for citywide crowd and traffic. In this study, we revisit the density and in-out flow prediction problem and publish a new aggregated human mobility dataset generated from a real-world smartphone application. Comparing with the existing ones, our dataset holds several advantages including large mesh-grid number, fine-grained mesh size, and high user sample. Towards this large-scale crowd dataset, we propose a novel deep learning model called DeepCrowd by designing pyramid architectures and high-dimensional attention mechanism based on Convolutional LSTM. Lastly, thorough and comprehensive performance evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed DeepCrowd comparing to multiple state-of-the-art methods.

A core component of the Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is road network, which forms the most basic transport infrastructure, and becomes widely applied in many traffic applications. In most traffic models, the spatial representation of road network is learned only through static graph connection while dynamic driver preference and traffic conditions in the real world are ignored. Therefore, in this paper, a novel trajectory-based road network representation is proposed. By mining vehicle trajectories, our proposed method can learn dynamic route choice through embeddings of each road in a next-hop prediction model. Then road correlations are calculated by the embeddings to build a latent correlation graph that can be applied in various traffic-related applications. Extensive experiment results prove the effectiveness and rationality of our proposed approach.

COVID-19 has dramatically changed people’s mobility patterns. This report aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on people’s mobility through statistics and comparing the visits of POIs (Point-Of-Interests) in New York State in 2019 and 2020. The report uses data from SafeGraph, which is a data company. The raw data contains POI visits across the United States in 2019 and 2020. Considering the analysis size and difficulty of the data, POI visits from New York State are extracted for analysis, and POI locations are classified according to the tags provided by the source data. The scale of analysis is from macro to micro, and they are the total POI visits data of New York State based on different ways in 2019 and 2020, the POI visits of CBG (Census Block Group) division in New York City, and three representative POI samples to do individual analysis. The analysis methods are: (1) use line plot and bar plot statistics to compare the trends of POI visits data from 2019 to 2020, and (2) make the spatial visualization comparison, which includes grid map, scatter map, heatmap, and OD map, between the first peak of epidemic impact in the first full week of April 2019 and April 2020, and the scope is narrowed to New York City. Wherein the OD maps are drawn based on the CBG division. Compared to related work, the analysis object includes CBG, categories, and individual POI. In addition, the analysis method combines statistical graphs and spatial visualizations and explores the policy impact of the New York City government. This report adopts more multidimensional analysis methods and objects to improve the comprehensiveness and reliability of the analysis content.

Citywide crowd prediction can be of great importance for emergency management, traffic regulation, and urban planning. By meshing a large urban area to a number of fine-grained mesh-grids as illustrated in Fig. 1 , citywide crowd in a continuous time period can be represented with a four-dimensional tensor ${\mathbb{R}^{Timestep{\text{ }}p \times {\text{ }}Height{\text{ }} \times {\text{ }}Width{\text{ }} \times {\text{ }}Channel{\text{ }}}}$ in an analogous manner to video data, where each Timestep can be seen as one video frame, Height , Width is two-dimensional index for mesh-grids, and each Channel stores an aggregated scalar value for each mesh-grid. Specifically, given historical observations of crowd density and in-out flow x d = d 1 ,…,d t , xf = f 1 ,…, f t at timestamp t , we aim to build prediction models for the next-step density and in-out flow y d = d t +1, yf = f t +1, where y d means how many people will be in each mesh-grid at the next timestamp, and yf means how many people will flow into or out from each mesh-grid in next time interval. Al-though many deep models [1] – [6] have been proposed to address such tasks, their actual effects are still not well validated on large-scale and high-quality datasets. The datasets used in most of the works so far are originally generated based on taxi or bicycle trip data, which don’t cover and reflect the citywide crowd density and flow. Thus, we first publish new crowd flow data called BousaiTYO and BousaiOSA [7] . These new datasets are created using the GPS log data collected from a popular smartphone app of Yahoo! Japan Corporation, which can well reflect the real-world crowd flow in Tokyo and Osaka. As shown by Table 1 , our dataset has: (1) larger spatial area; (2) finer mesh size; (3) higher user sample.

Knowing "what is happening" and "what will happen" of the mobility in a city is the building block of a data-driven smart city system. In recent years, mobility digital twin that makes a virtual replication of human mobility and predicting or simulating the fine-grained movements of the subjects in a virtual space at a metropolitan scale in near real-time has shown its great potential in modern urban intelligent systems. However, few studies have provided practical solutions. The main difficulties are four-folds: 1) the daily variation of human mobility is hard to model and predict; 2) the transportation network enforces a complex constraints on human mobility; 3) generating a rational fine-grained human trajectory is challenging for existing machine learning models; and 4) making a fine-grained prediction incurs high computational costs, which is challenging for an online system. Bearing these difficulties in mind, in this paper we propose a two-stage human mobility predictor that stratifies the coarse and fine-grained level predictions. In the first stage, to encode the daily variation of human mobility at a metropolitan level, we automatically extract citywide mobility trends as crowd contexts and predict long-term and long-distance movements at a coarse level. In the second stage, the coarse predictions are resolved to a fine-grained level via a probabilistic trajectory retrieval method, which offloads most of the heavy computations to the offline phase. We tested our method using a real-world mobile phone GPS dataset in the Kanto area in Japan, and achieved good prediction accuracy and a time efficiency of about 2 min in predicting future 1h movements of about 220K mobile phone users on a single machine to support more higher-level analysis of mobility prediction.

Predicting the density and flow of the crowd at a citywide level is significant for city management. By meshing a large urban area to a number of fine-grained mesh-grids, citywide crowd and traffic information in a continuous time period can be represented with 4D tensor (Timestep, Height, Width, Channel). Based on this, we revisit the density and in-out flow prediction problem and publish a new aggregated human mobility dataset generated from a real-world smartphone application. Compared with the existing ones, our dataset has larger mesh-grid number, finer-grained mesh size, and higher user sample. Towards such kind of large-scale crowd dataset, we propose a novel deep learning model called DeepCrowd by designing pyramid architectures and high-dimensional attention mechanism based on Convolutional LSTM. Both the datasets and codes are made available at https://github.com/deepkashiwa20/DeepCrowd.

Event crowd management has been a significant research topic with high social impact. When some big events happen such as an earthquake, typhoon, and national festival, crowd management becomes the first priority for governments (e.g., police) and public service operators (e.g., subway/bus operator) to protect people’s safety or maintain the operation of public infrastructures. However, under such event situations, human behavior will become very different from daily routines, which makes prediction of crowd dynamics at big events become highly challenging, especially at a citywide level. Therefore in this study, we aim to extract the “deep” trend only from the current momentary observations and generate an accurate prediction for the trend in the short future, which is considered to be an effective way to deal with the event situations. Motivated by these, we build an online system called DeepUrbanEvent, which can iteratively take citywide crowd dynamics from the current one hour as input and report the prediction results for the next one hour as output. A novel deep learning architecture built with recurrent neural networks is designed to effectively model these highly complex sequential data in an analogous manner to video prediction tasks. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed methodology to the existing approaches. Lastly, we apply our prototype system to multiple big real-world events and show that it is highly deployable as an online crowd management system.

Nowadays, with the rapid development of IoT (Internet of Things) and CPS (Cyber-Physical Systems) technologies, big spatiotemporal data are being generated from mobile phones, car navigation systems, and traffic sensors. By leveraging state-of-the-art deep learning technologies on such data, urban traffic prediction has drawn a lot of attention in AI and Intelligent Transportation System community. The problem can be uniformly modeled with a 3D tensor (T, N, C), where T denotes the total time steps, N denotes the size of the spatial domain (i.e., mesh-grids or graph-nodes), and C denotes the channels of information. According to the specific modeling strategy, the state-of-the-art deep learning models can be divided into three categories: grid-based, graph-based, and multivariate time-series models. In this study, we first synthetically review the deep traffic models as well as the widely used datasets, then build a standard benchmark to comprehensively evaluate their performances with the same settings and metrics. Our study named DL-Traff is implemented with two most popular deep learning frameworks, i.e., TensorFlow and PyTorch, which is already publicly available as two GitHub repositories https://github.com/deepkashiwa20/DL-Traff-Grid and https://github.com/deepkashiwa20/DL-Traff-Graph. With DL-Traff, we hope to deliver a useful resource to researchers who are interested in spatiotemporal data analysis.

Forecasting incident occurrences (e.g. crime, EMS, traffic accident) is a crucial task for emergency service providers and transportation agencies in performing response time optimization and dynamic fleet management. However, such events are by nature rare and sparse, which causes the label imbalance problem and inferior performance of models relying on data sufficiency. The existing studies circumvent, instead of truly solving, this issue by defining the incident prediction problem in a coarse-grained temporal (e.g. daily) setting, which leaves the proposed models unrobust to fine-grained dynamics and trivial for the real-world decision making. In this paper, we tackle the temporally fine-grained incident prediction problem in a sparse setting by explicitly exploiting the behind-the-scene chainlike triggering mechanism. Moreover, this chain effect roots in multiple domains (i.e. spatial, categorical), which further entangles with the temporal dimension and happens to be time-variant. To be specific, we propose a novel deep learning framework, namely Spatio-Temporal-Categorical Graph Neural Networks (STC-GNN), to handle the multidimensional and dynamic chain effect for performing fine-grained multi-incident co-prediction. Extensive experiments on three real-world city-level incident datasets verify the insightfulness of our perspective and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Forecasting regional ambulance demand plays a fundamental part in dynamic fleet allocation and redeployment. This topic has been gaining increasing significance, as virtually every country is experiencing an aging population, with generally higher level of vulnerability and demand for the emergency medical service (EMS). Although exploring the spatial and temporal correlations in EMS historical records, the existing methods principally consider the former time-invariant, which does not necessarily hold in reality. Moreover, this assumption ignores the fact that the behind-the-scenes dynamics are people, whose demographic profiles and activity patterns could be determinants of regional EMS demands. In this paper, we are therefore motivated to mine the collective daily routines in human mobility, to further represent the evolving spatial correlations. Particularly, we model profiled mobility groups as multiple random walkers and propose a novel bicomponent neural network, including a heterogeneous multi-graph convolution layer and spatio-temporal interlacing attention module, to perform the prediction task. Experimental results on the real-world data verify the effectiveness of introducing dynamic human mobility and the advantage of our approach over the state-of-the-art models.

Multi-variate time series (MTS) data is a ubiquitous class of data abstraction in the real world. Any instance of MTS is generated from a hybrid dynamical system with their specific dynamics normally unknown. The hybrid nature of such a dynamical system is a result of complex external impacts, which can be summarized as high-frequency and low-frequency from the temporal view, or global and local if we take the spatial view. These impacts also determine the forthcoming development of MTS making them paramount to capture in a time series forecasting task. However, conventional methods face intrinsic difficulties in disentangling the components yielded by each kind of impact from the raw data. To this end, we propose two kinds of normalization modules -- temporal and spatial normalization -- which separately refine the high-frequency component and the local component underlying the raw data. Moreover, both modules can be readily integrated into canonical deep learning architectures such as Wavenet and Transformer. Extensive experiments on three datasets are conducted to illustrate that, with additional normalization modules, the performance of the canonical architectures can be enhanced by a large margin in the application of MTS and achieves state-of-the-art results compared with existing MTS models.

Transportation demand forecasting is a topic of large practical value. However, the model that fits the demand of one transportation by only considering the historical data of its own could be vulnerable since random fluctuations could easily impact the modeling. On the other hand, common factors like time and region attribute, drive the evolution demand of different transportation, leading to a co-evolving intrinsic property between different kinds of transportation. In this work, we focus on exploring the co-evolution between different modes of transport, e.g., taxi demand and shared-bike demand. Two significant challenges impede the discovery of the co-evolving pattern: (1) diversity of the co-evolving correlation, which varies from region to region and time to time. (2) Multi-modal data fusion. Taxi demand and shared-bike demand are time-series data, which have different representations with the external factors. Moreover, the distribution of taxi demand and bike demand are not identical. To overcome these challenges, we propose a novel method, known as co-evolving spatial temporal neural network (CEST). CEST learns a multi-view demand representation for each mode of transport, extracts the co-evolving pattern, then predicts the demand for the target transportation based on multi-scale representation, which includes fine-scale demand information and coarse-scale pattern information. We conduct extensive experiments to validate the superiority of our model over the state-of-art models.

Nowadays, GPS devices have increased explosively and produced huge amounts of trajectory data related to people's outgoing. Through those big location data, many researches aim to analyze human mobility for urban development, such as human movement prediction/modeling, POI (Point-Of-Interest) recommendation. However, trajectory data only contains timestamp and location information. The intention of human movement is not explicit so that it is hard to understand why people go to somewhere. The intention prior to the activity could be of great significance for analyzing and predicting human mobility, which has not been taken into consideration by the existing researches until the present. Thus, in this study, we propose a brand-new concept called human intentional mobility, aiming to employ intention information to predict people's outgoing. We carefully utilize user's search query to sense his intention as well as the intensity. For instance, if a user searches a certain POI for many times in a short period, it will represent a relatively high intention to go there. Then, to fully utilize this intention representation for predicting whether user will visit searched POI or not, we specially design Dual Sequential Interaction Network (DualSIN) as a novel and unique deep-learning model, which can effectively capture the sophisticated interactions among two kinds of sequential information (i.e., search sequence and mobility sequence) and typical categorical information (i.e., user attributes). Last, we evaluate our model on real-world dataset collected from Yahoo! Japan portal application, and demonstrate that it can achieve superior satisfactory performances to the-state-of-the-art models on multiple POI search queries.

Extracting identifiable information from human trajectories is a fundamental task in many location-based services (LBS). However, various mobility patterns underlain in human trajectories are difficult to model by existing models. Moreover, we could hardly define a clear user set for user identification because the set of users are dynamic and changing everyday. Bearing these in mind, we apply a deep multiple instance learning method to handle the multimodal mobility patterns in a weak-supervised learning way, and address the dynamic user set problems via a pairwise loss with negative sampling. We utilize a multi-head attention mechanism to automatically extract multiple aspects and match the corresponding information between query trajectories and historical trajectories. Our method shows a good identification accuracy on three human GPS trajectory data sets comparing with baseline methods.

Event crowd management has been a significant research topic with high social impact. When some big events happen such as an earthquake, typhoon, and national festival, crowd management becomes the first priority for governments (e.g. police) and public service operators (e.g. subway/bus operator) to protect people's safety or maintain the operation of public infrastructures. However, under such event situations, human behavior will become very different from daily routines, which makes prediction of crowd dynamics at big events become highly challenging, especially at a citywide level. Therefore in this study, we aim to extract the deep trend only from the current momentary observations and generate an accurate prediction for the trend in the short future, which is considered to be an effective way to deal with the event situations. Motivated by these, we build an online system called DeepUrbanEvent which can iteratively take citywide crowd dynamics from the current one hour as input and report the prediction results for the next one hour as output. A novel deep learning architecture built with recurrent neural networks is designed to effectively model these highly-complex sequential data in an analogous manner to video prediction tasks. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed methodology to the existing approaches. Lastly, we apply our prototype system to multiple big real-world events and show that it is highly deployable as an online crowd management system.

Globalization leads to more and more outbound behavior. Understanding these behavior is of great significance to both outbound and inbound countries in a lot of fields. However, the previous research on outbound behavior mainly unitizes questionnaires or purely analyzes the statistical data, these data are either too difficult to acquire or unable to directly analyze public opinion. This paper aim to analyze outbound behavior through large volume of text and location information published on social network services (SNS) and look into a case study of Chinese people in Japan with the data acquired from Chinese microblog website, Sina Weibo. For text analysis, we utilize an adapted latent Dirichlet allocation model to extract the topics in text and discuss the spatial and temporal distribution of the topics. The experiment proves that the topics represent outbound behavior of tourists and foreign visitors can be found and explained in the experiment dataset, which indicates that SNS data is valid for analyzing outbound behavior.