Wei Shao, Yihang Wang, Gao yu Zhu, Ziqiang Cheng, Lei Yu, Jiafeng Guo, Xueqi Cheng. Proceedings of the 64th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics (Volume 1: Long Papers). 2026.

Time series modeling has attracted great research interests in the last decades. Among the literature, shapelet-based models aim to extract representative subsequences, and could offer explanatory insights. In order to capture the shapelet dynamics and evolutions, we propose a novel framework of bridging time series representation learning and graph modeling, with two different implementations. We first formulate the process of extracting time-aware shapelets, then briefly introduce the key idea of transforming time series data into shapelet evolution graphs, to model the shapelet evolutionary patterns. A straightforward solution is to enumerate all possible shapelet transitions among adjacent time series segments, and apply a random-walk-based graph embedding algorithm to learn the time series representations (Time2Graph). We further extend Time2Graph by adopting graph attention mechanism to refine the procedure of modeling shapelet evolutions, namely Time2Graph+. Specifically, we transform each time series data into a unique and unweighted shapelet graph, and use GAT to automatically capture the correlations between shapelets. Experimental results show the significant improvements of Time2Graph+, and extensive observational analysis demonstrate the effectiveness and interpretability brought by attentions. Furthermore, the success of online deployment of Time2Graph+ model in State Grid of China validates the whole framework in the real-world application.

A taocode is a kind of specially coded text-link on taobao.com (the world's biggest online shopping website), through which users can share messages about products with each other. Analyzing taocodes can potentially facilitate understanding of the social relationships between users and, more excitingly, their online purchasing behaviors under the influence of taocode diffusion. This paper innovatively investigates the problem of online purchasing predictions from an information diffusion perspective, with taocode as a case study. Specifically, we conduct profound observational studies on a large-scale real-world dataset from Taobao, containing over 100M Taocode sharing records. Inspired by our observations, we propose InfNet, a dynamic GNN-based framework that models the information diffusion across Taocode. We then apply InfNet to item purchasing predictions. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of InfNet compared with νmofbaseline~ state-of-the-art baselines.

The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional relations among them. In this paper, we present evolutionary state graph, a dynamic graph structure designed to systematically represent the evolving relations (edges) among states (nodes) along time. We conduct analysis on the dynamic graphs constructed from the time-series data and show that changes on the graph structures (e.g., edges connecting certain state nodes) can inform the occurrences of events (i.e., time-series fluctuation). Inspired by this, we propose a novel graph neural network model, Evolutionary State Graph Network (EvoNet), to encode the evolutionary state graph for accurate and interpretable time-series event prediction. Specifically, EvoNet models both the node-level (state-to-state) and graph-level (segment-to-segment) propagation, and captures the node-graph (state-to-segment) interactions over time. Experimental results based on five real-world datasets show that our approach not only achieves clear improvements compared with 11 baselines, but also provides more insights towards explaining the results of event predictions.

Time series modeling has attracted extensive research efforts; however, achieving both reliable efficiency and interpretability from a unified model still remains a challenging problem. Among the literature, shapelets offer interpretable and explanatory insights in the classification tasks, while most existing works ignore the differing representative power at different time slices, as well as (more importantly) the evolution pattern of shapelets. In this paper, we propose to extract time-aware shapelets by designing a two-level timing factor. Moreover, we define and construct the shapelet evolution graph, which captures how shapelets evolve over time and can be incorporated into the time series embeddings by graph embedding algorithms. To validate whether the representations obtained in this way can be applied effectively in various scenarios, we conduct experiments based on three public time series datasets, and two real-world datasets from different domains. Experimental results clearly show the improvements achieved by our approach compared with 16 state-of-the-art baselines.

Electricity theft, the behavior that involves users conducting illegal operations on electrical meters to avoid individual electricity bills, is a common phenomenon in the developing countries. Considering its harmfulness to both power grids and the public, several mechanized methods have been developed to automatically recognize electricity-theft behaviors. However, these methods, which mainly assess users’ electricity usage records, can be insufficient due to the diversity of theft tactics and the irregularity of user behaviors.

Team composition is a central factor in determining the effectiveness of a team. In this paper, we present a large-scale study on the effect of team composition on multiple measures of team effectiveness. We use a dataset from the largest multiplayer online battle arena (MOBA) game, Honor of Kings, with 96 million matches involving 100 million players. We measure team effectiveness based on team performance (whether a team is going to win), team tenacity (whether a team is going to surrender), and team rapport (whether a team uses abusive language). Our results confirm the importance of team diversity with respect to player roles, and show that diversity has varying effects on team effectiveness: although diverse teams perform well and show tenacity in adversity, they are more likely to abuse when losing than less diverse teams. Our study also contributes to the situation vs. personality debate and show that abusive players tend to choose the leading role and players do not become more abusive when taking such roles.