Survival analysis, which estimates the probability of event occurrence over time from censored data, is fundamental in numerous real-world applications, particularly in high-stakes domains such as healthcare and risk assessment. Despite advances in numerous survival models, quantifying the uncertainty of predictions from these models remains underexplored and challenging. The lack of reliable uncertainty quantification limits the interpretability and trustworthiness of survival models, hindering their adoption in clinical decision-making and other sensitive applications. To bridge this gap, in this work, we introduce SurvUnc, a novel meta-model based framework for post-hoc uncertainty quantification for survival models. SurvUnc introduces an anchor-based learning strategy that integrates concordance knowledge into meta-model optimization, leveraging pairwise ranking performance to estimate uncertainty effectively. Notably, our framework is model-agnostic, ensuring compatibility with any survival model without requiring modifications to its architecture or access to its internal parameters. Especially, we design a comprehensive evaluation pipeline tailored to this critical yet overlooked problem. Through extensive experiments on four publicly available benchmarking datasets and five representative survival models, we demonstrate the superiority of SurvUnc across multiple evaluation scenarios, including selective prediction, misprediction detection, and out-of-domain detection. Our results highlight the effectiveness of SurvUnc in enhancing model interpretability and reliability, paving the way for more trustworthy survival predictions in real-world

Recent technology development brings the boom of numerous new Demand-Driven Services (DDS) into urban lives, including ridesharing, on-demand delivery, express systems, and warehousing. In DDS, a service loop is an elemental structure, including its service worker, the service providers, and corresponding service targets. The service workers should transport either people or parcels from the providers to the target locations. Various planning tasks within DDS can thus be classified into two individual stages: (1) Dispatching, which is to form service loops from demand/supply distributions, and (2) Routing, which is to decide specific serving orders within the constructed loops. Generating high-quality strategies in both stages is important to develop DDS but faces several challenges. Meanwhile, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been developed rapidly in recent years. It is a powerful tool to solve these problems since DRL can learn a parametric model without relying on too many problem-based assumptions and optimize long-term effects by learning sequential decisions. In this survey, we first define DDS, then highlight common applications and important decision/control problems within. For each problem, we comprehensively introduce the existing DRL solutions. We also introduce open simulation environments for development and evaluation of DDS applications. Finally, we analyze remaining challenges and discuss further research opportunities in DRL solutions for DDS.

The substantial social and financial costs of infrastructure identification impede in-depth analyses of sustainable urban design, especially in developing countries. In this paper, we present a novel framework with interactive web visualization based on geospatial visual foundation models. Leveraging this framework, we examine the urban infrastructure information in 1,178 cities worldwide, covering 93, 088 km2 areas. Cross-validation reveals that the overall accuracy of identified infrastructure achieves 67.0%. It sheds light on the sustainable development of cities and exposes the stark inequity in urban infrastructure provision for vulnerable populations. The identified urban infrastructure dataset of this study are available at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/GUI, and the interactive web application is at https://tinyurl.com/yz7xbfy3.

Federated Learning (FL) enables model development by leveraging data distributed across numerous edge devices without transferring local data to a central server. However, existing FL methods still face challenges when dealing with scarce and label-skewed data across devices, resulting in local model overfitting and drift, consequently hindering the performance of the global model. In response to these challenges, we propose a pioneering framework called FLea, incorporating the following key components: i) A global feature buffer that stores activation-target pairs shared from multiple clients to support local training. This design mitigates local model drift caused by the absence of certain classes; ii) A feature augmentation approach based on local and global activation mix-ups for local training. This strategy enlarges the training samples, thereby reducing the risk of local overfitting; iii) An obfuscation method to minimize the correlation between intermediate activations and the source data, enhancing the privacy of shared features. To verify the superiority of FLea, we conduct extensive experiments using a wide range of data modalities, simulating different levels of local data scarcity and label skew. The results demonstrate that FLea consistently outperforms state-of-the-art FL counterparts (among 13 of the experimented 18 settings, the improvement is over 5%) while concurrently mitigating the privacy vulnerabilities associated with shared features.

Vehicle routing problem with time window (VRPTW) is of great importance for a wide spectrum of services and real-life applications, such as online take-out and car-hailing platforms. A promising method should generate high-qualified solutions within limited inference time, and there are three major challenges: (a) directly optimizing the goal with several practical constraints; (b) efficiently handling individual time-window limits; and (c) modeling the cooperation among the vehicle fleet. In this article, we present an end-to-end reinforcement learning framework to solve VRPTW. First, we propose an agent model that encodes constraints into features as the input and conducts harsh policy on the output when generating deterministic results. Second, we design a time penalty augmented reward to model the time-window limits during gradient propagation. Third, we design a task handler to enable the cooperation among different vehicles. We perform extensive experiments on two real-world datasets and one public benchmark dataset. Results demonstrate that our solution improves the performance by up to 11.7% compared to other RL baselines and could generate solutions for instances within seconds, while existing heuristic baselines take for minutes as well as maintain the quality of solutions. Moreover, our solution is thoroughly analyzed with meaningful implications due to the real-time response ability.

A considerable amount of mobility data has been accumulated due to the proliferation of location-based services. Nevertheless, compared with mobility data from transportation systems like the GPS module in taxis, this kind of data is commonly sparse in terms of individual trajectories in the sense that users do not access mobile services and contribute their data all the time. Consequently, the sparsity inevitably weakens the practical value of the data even if it has a high user penetration rate. To solve this problem, we propose a novel attentional neural network-based model, named AttnMove, to densify individual trajectories by recovering unobserved locations at a fine-grained spatial-temporal resolution. To tackle the challenges posed by sparsity, we design various intra- and inter- trajectory attention mechanisms to better model the mobility regularity of users and fully exploit the periodical pattern from long-term history. In addition, to guarantee the robustness of the generated trajectories to avoid harming downstream applications, we also exploit the Bayesian approximate neural network to estimate the uncertainty of each imputation. As a result, locations generated by the model with high uncertainty will be excluded. We evaluate our model on two real-world datasets, and extensive results demonstrate the performance gain compared with the state-of-the-art methods. In-depth analyses of each design of our model have been conducted to understand their contribution. We also show that, by providing high-quality mobility data, our model can benefit a variety of mobility-oriented downstream applications.

Built environment supports all the daily activities and shapes our health. Leveraging informative street view imagery, previous research has established the profound correlation between the built environment and chronic, non-communicable diseases; however, predicting the exposure risk of infectious diseases remains largely unexplored. The person-to-person contacts and interactions contribute to the complexity of infectious disease, which is inherently different from non-communicable diseases. Besides, the complex relationships between street view imagery and epidemic exposure also hinder accurate predictions. To address these problems, we construct a regional mobility graph informed by the gravity model, based on which we propose a transmission-aware graph neural network (GNN) to capture disease transmission patterns arising from human mobility. Experiments show that the proposed model significantly outperforms baseline models by 8.54% in weighted F1, shedding light on a low-cost, scalable approach to assess epidemic exposure risks from street view imagery.

Time series forecasting, as one of the fundamental machine learning areas, has attracted tremendous attentions over recent years. The solutions have evolved from statistical machine learning (ML) methods to deep learning techniques. One emerging sub-field of time series forecasting is individual disease progression forecasting, e.g., predicting individuals' disease development over a few days (e.g., deteriorating trends, recovery speed) based on few past observations. Despite the promises in the existing ML techniques, a variety of unique challenges emerge for disease progression forecasting, such as irregularly-sampled time series, data sparsity, and individual heterogeneity in disease progression. To tackle these challenges, we propose novel Conditional Neural Ordinary Differential Equations Processes (CNDPs), and validate it in a COVID-19 disease progression forecasting task using audio data. CNDPs allow for irregularly-sampled time series modelling, enable accurate forecasting with sparse past observations, and achieve individual-level progression forecasting. CNDPs show strong performance with an Unweighted Average Recall (UAR) of 78.1%, outperforming a variety of commonly used Recurrent Neural Networks based models. With the proposed label-enhancing mechanism (i.e., including the initial health status as input) and the customised individual-level loss, CNDPs further boost the performance reaching a UAR of 93.6%. Additional analysis also reveals the model's capability in tracking individual-specific recovery trend, implying the potential usage of the model for remote disease progression monitoring. In general, CNDPs pave new pathways for time series forecasting, and provide considerable advantages for disease progression monitoring.

The recent outbreak of COVID-19 poses a serious threat to people’s lives. Epidemic control strategies have also caused damage to the economy by cutting off humans’ daily commute. In this article, we develop an Individual-based Reinforcement Learning Epidemic Control Agent (IDRLECA) to search for smart epidemic control strategies that can simultaneously minimize infections and the cost of mobility intervention. IDRLECA first hires an infection probability model to calculate the current infection probability of each individual. Then, the infection probabilities together with individuals’ health status and movement information are fed to a novel GNN to estimate the spread of the virus through human contacts. The estimated risks are used to further support an RL agent to select individual-level epidemic-control actions. The training of IDRLECA is guided by a specially designed reward function considering both the cost of mobility intervention and the effectiveness of epidemic control. Moreover, we design a constraint for control-action selection that eases its difficulty and further improve exploring efficiency. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that IDRLECA can suppress infections at a very low level and retain more than 95% of human mobility.

With the increasing diversity of mobile apps, users install many apps in their smartphones and often use several apps together to meet a specific requirement. Because of the evolution of user habits and app functions, the set of apps using at the same time, i.e., app usage context, may change over time, which represents the dynamic correlation of different apps and even the evolution trend of the whole app ecosystem. Therefore, understanding how an apps usage context changes over time is very meaningful. In this paper, based on a seven-year app usage dataset, we explore the long-term app usage context dynamics and understand the underlying reasons and influence factors behind. Specifically, we build app co-occurrence graphs in different periods and learn app embeddings accordingly by leveraging graph embedding algorithm. We then measure the change of app usage context by the distance between neighboring app embeddings. As for the whole app ecosystem, we find that the change rate of app usage context undergoes up and down phrases, and varies in different app-categories. Furthermore, we explore three influence factors correlated with such dynamics. These results will be helpful for stakeholders to better understand the evolution of mobile users app usage behavior.

With the gradual improvements in COVID-19 metrics and the accelerated immunization progress, countries around the world have began to focus on reviving the economy while continuously strengthening epidemic control. POInt-of-Interest (POI) reopening, as a necessity for restoring human mobilities, has become a crucial step to recouple economic recovery and public health management. In contrast to the lock-down policy, POI reopening demands a dynamic trade-off between epidemic interventions and economic costs. In the urban scenario, there exist three key challenges in developing effective POI reopening strategies as follows. (1) During the POI reopening process, there are multiple urban factors affecting the epidemic transmission, which are difficult to simultaneously incorporate and balance in a single reopening strategy; (2) the effects of POI reopening on both economic recovery and epidemic control are long-term, which are hard to capture by static models; and (3) the dual objectives of minimizing infections and maintaining POIs' visits are conflicting, making it difficult to achieve a flexible and scalable trade-off. To tackle the above challenges, we propose Reopener, a deep reinforcement learning (RL) framework for smart POI reopening. First, we utilize a bipartite graph neural network to automatically encode all urban factors that would affect the epidemic prevention and POI visit restriction. Second, we employ a RL-based deep policy network to enable flexible updates in restrictions on POIs along with the trend of epidemic. Third, we design a novel reward function to guide the RL agent to learn smartly, thus comprehensively trading off infections and visit sustainability of POIs. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Reopener outperforms all baseline methods with remarkable improvements, by reducing the overall economic cost by at least 6.42%. Reopener can effectively suppress infections and support a phase-based POI reopening process, which provides valuable insights for strategy design in post-COVID-19 economic recovery.

To control the outbreak of COVID-19, efficient individual mobility intervention for EPidemic Control (EPC) strategies are of great importance, which cut off the contact among people at epidemic risks and reduce infections by intervening the mobility of individuals. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is powerful for decision making, however, there are two major challenges in developing an RL-based EPC strategy: (1) the unobservable information about asymptomatic infections in the incubation period makes it difficult for RL's decision-making, and (2) the delayed rewards for RL causes the deficiency of RL learning. Since the results of EPC are reflected in both daily infections (including unobservable asymptomatic infections) and long-term cumulative cases of COVID-19, it is quite daunting to design an RL model for precise mobility intervention. In this paper, we propose a Variational hiErarcHICal reinforcement Learning method for Epidemic control via individual-level mobility intervention, namely Vehicle. To tackle the above challenges, Vehicle first exploits an information rebuilding module that consists of a contact-risk bipartite graph neural network and a variational LSTM to restore the unobservable information. The contact-risk bipartite graph neural network estimates the possibility of an individual being an asymptomatic infection and the risk of this individual spreading the epidemic, as the current state of RL. Then, the Variational LSTM further encodes the state sequence to model the latency of epidemic spreading caused by unobservable asymptomatic infections. Finally, a Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning framework is employed to train Vehicle, which contains dual-level agents to solve the delayed reward problem. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Vehicle can effectively control the spread of the epidemic. Vehicle outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods with remarkably high-precision mobility interventions on both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections.

Obtaining crowd flow distribution with recognized human intention is extremely valuable for a series of applications for metropolitan cities. Previous solutions look at spatial correlation and temporal periodicity based on historical crowd flow information to calculate future crowd flow distribution. However, these mechanisms cannot recognize the intention behind crowd flow. We address this problem by leveraging a key insight – people's intention behind their movement is highly correlated with the point-of-interest (POI) distribution of the corresponding regions and adjacent regions. Therefore, we proposeDeepFlowGento model the complicated relationship between crowd flow, POI, check-ins, and time to generate intention-aware crowd flow. Specifically, we solve the conflict between dynamic crowd flow and static POI distribution by fusing the information in both time and POI domains. Besides, we employ a sequence of residual blocks inDeepFlowGento address the challenges of modeling the diverse temporal rhythms and heterogeneous influence of POI. Furthermore, we examine the generated intention-aware crowd flow from two aspects to substantiate the reasonability ofDeepFlowGen. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions by at most 30 percent in terms of NRMSE of total crowd flow. Moreover, the correlation between the generated intention-aware crowd flow and the check-in distribution across different categories of POIs is as high as 0.90 and 0.80 in Beijing and Shanghai. Combined with extensive case studies, we demonstrate the strong ability of our model in generating intention-aware crowd flow.

Societal functions have stalled during COVID-19 to reduce its spread in the population. It has been shown that visits to different venues have a large effect on spreading the virus. Hence, population-level mobility interventions like reopening selective category of venues have been proposed, for example, opening schools and offices but preventing people from visiting restaurants. These measures, although help to mitigate infection, still fail to satisfy people’s needs and hope of going back to normality. In this context, here we propose an individual level POI recommendation system that can recommend venues to users according to their preference and at the same time, can lead to as few infections as possible. The key idea behind the system is that the risk of getting infected grows with the number of unique customers that had visited the venue previously, and it is safer to visit a less crowded place during a specific time slot. We evaluate the proposed system using both theory and real check-in datasets from three cities. Based on simulation on real-world data, we present a surprising result: it is possible to recommend POIs in such a way that the total infected population reduces by up to 50% compared to that following original check-ins. This result is comparable to that when 50% of the visits are blocked, yet our method allows all check-in needs.

Fine-grained population distribution data is of great importance for many applications, e.g., urban planning, traffic scheduling, epidemic modeling, and risk control. However, due to the limitations of data collection, including infrastructure density, user privacy, and business security, such fine-grained data is hard to collect and usually, only coarse-grained data is available. Thus, obtaining fine-grained population distribution from coarse-grained distribution becomes an important problem. To tackle this problem, existing methods mainly rely on sufficient fine-grained ground truth for training, which is not often available for the majority of cities. That limits the applications of these methods and brings the necessity to transfer knowledge between data-sufficient source cities to data-scarce target cities.

Crowd flow prediction is an essential task benefiting a wide range of applications for the transportation system and public safety. However, it is a challenging problem due to the complex spatio-temporal dependence and the complicated impact of urban structure on the crowd flow patterns. In this article, we propose a novel framework, 3- D imensional G raph C onvolution N etwork (3DGCN), to predict citywide crowd flow. We first model it as a dynamic spatio-temporal graph prediction problem, where each node represents a region with time-varying flows, and each edge represents the origin–destination (OD) flow between its corresponding regions. As such, OD flows among regions are treated as a proxy for the spatial interactions among regions. To tackle the complex spatio-temporal dependence, our proposed 3DGCN can model the correlation among graph spatial and temporal neighbors simultaneously. To learn and incorporate urban structures in crowd flow prediction, we design the GCN aggregator to be learned from both crowd flow prediction and region function inference at the same time. Extensive experiments with real-world datasets in two cities demonstrate that our model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines by 9.6%∼19.5% for the next-time-interval prediction.

With the ever-increasing urbanization process, systematically modeling people's activities in the urban space is being recognized as a crucial socioeconomic task. It is extremely challenging due to the lack of reliable data and suitable methods, yet the emergence of population-scale urban mobility data sheds new light on it. However, recent works on discovering activity patterns from urban mobility data are still limited in terms of concisely and specifically modeling the temporal dynamics of people's urban activities. To bridge the gap, we present a State-sharing Hidden Markov Model (SSHMM), a novel time-series modeling method that uncovers urban dynamics with massive urban mobility data. SSHMM models the urban dynamics from two aspects. First, it extracts the urban states from the whole city, which captures the volume of population flows as well as the frequency of each type of Point of Interests (PoIs) visited. Second, it characterizes the urban dynamics of each urban region as the state transition on the shared-states, which reveals distinct daily rhythms of urban activities. We evaluate our method via large-scale real-life mobility dataset. The results demonstrate that SSHMM learns semantics-rich urban dynamics, which are highly correlated with the functions of the region. Besides, it recovers the urban dynamics in different time slots with RMSE of 0.0793 when only learn limited states for the whole city, which outperforms the general HMM by 54.2 percent.

Audio signals generated by the human body (e.g., sighs, breathing, heart, digestion, vibration sounds) have routinely been used by clinicians as indicators to diagnose disease or assess disease progression. Until recently, such signals were usually collected through manual auscultation at scheduled visits. Research has now started to use digital technology to gather bodily sounds (e.g., from digital stethoscopes) for cardiovascular or respiratory examination, which could then be used for automatic analysis. Some initial work shows promise in detecting diagnostic signals of COVID-19 from voice and coughs. In this paper we describe our data analysis over a large-scale crowdsourced dataset of respiratory sounds collected to aid diagnosis of COVID-19. We use coughs and breathing to understand how discernible COVID-19 sounds are from those in asthma or healthy controls. Our results show that even a simple binary machine learning classifier is able to classify correctly healthy and COVID-19 sounds. We also show how we distinguish a user who tested positive for COVID-19 and has a cough from a healthy user with a cough, and users who tested positive for COVID-19 and have a cough from users with asthma and a cough. Our models achieve an AUC of above 80% across all tasks. These results are preliminary and only scratch the surface of the potential of this type of data and audio-based machine learning. This work opens the door to further investigation of how automatically analysed respiratory patterns could be used as pre-screening signals to aid COVID-19 diagnosis.

Smartphone mobile application (App) usage prediction, i.e., which Apps will be used next, is beneficial for user experience improvement. Through an in-depth analysis on a real-world dataset, we find that App usage is highly spatio-temporally correlated and personalized. Given the ability to model complex spatio-temporal contexts, we aim to apply deep learning to achieve high prediction accuracy. However, the personalization yields a problem: training one network for each individual suffers from data scarcity, yet training one deep neural network for all users often fails to uncover user preference. In this article, we propose a novel App usage prediction framework, named DeepApp , to achieve context-aware prediction via multi-task learning. To tackle the challenge of data scarcity, we train one general network for multiple users to share common patterns. To better utilize the spatio-temporal contexts, we supplement a location prediction task in the multi-task learning framework to learn spatio-temporal relations. As for the personalization, we add a user identification task to capture user preference. We evaluate DeepApp on the large-scale dataset by extensive experiments. Results demonstrate that DeepApp outperforms the start-of-the-art baseline by 6.44%.

Map matching is important in many trajectory based applications like route optimization and traffic schedule, etc. As the widely used methods, Hidden Markov Model and its variants are well studied to provide accurate and efficient map matching service. However, HMM based methods fail to utilize the value of enormous trajectory big data, which are useful for the map matching task. Furthermore, with many following-up works, they are still easily influenced by the noisy records, which are very common in the real system. To solve these problems, we revisit the map matching task from the data perspective, and propose to utilize the great power of data to help solve these problems. We build a deep learning based model to utilize all the trajectory data for joint training and knowledge sharing. With the help of embedding techniques and sequence learning model with attention enhancement, our system does the map matching in the latent space, which is tolerant to the noise in the physical space. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our model outperforms the widely used HMM based methods more than 10% (absolute accuracy) and works robustly in the noisy settings in the meantime.

Modeling people's activities in the urban space is a crucial socio-economic task but extremely challenging due to the deficiency of suitable methods. To model the temporal dynamics of human activities concisely and specifically, we present State-sharing Hidden Markov Model (SSHMM). First, it extracts the urban states from the whole city, which captures the volume of population flows as well as the frequency of each type of Point of Interests (PoIs) visited. Second, it characterizes the urban dynamics of each urban region as the state transition on the shared-states, which reveals distinct daily rhythms of urban activities. We evaluate our method via a large-scale real-life mobility dataset and results demonstrate that SSHMM learns semantics-rich urban dynamics, which are highly correlated with the functions of the region. Besides, it recovers the urban dynamics in different time slots with an error of 0.0793, which outperforms the general HMM by 54.2%.