With the ever increasing importance of cloud computing and a strong focus on reliable data centers, a high amount of research has been done on failure prediction for hard disk drives. The collection of monitoring data, such as SMART statistics (Self-Monitoring, Analysis, and Reporting Technology) from operational HDDs, enables operators to obtain predictions about the expected remaining useful life. Numerous methods for HDD failure prediction have been published in recent years, and their evaluation has shown decent results. However, a naive splitting into training and test sets can lead to data leakage and, thus, over-optimistic results that cannot be achieved on the data of scientific interest. In this paper, we propose a novel data leakage measure for quantifying the amount of data leakage in training and test datasets. Further, we define four splitting techniques and evaluate our measure in terms of the performance optimism of classification models with respect to these different splitting strategies. Our results consistently show that splitting techniques prone to data leakage induce an overestimation of predictive performance. Overall, we were able to show the usefulness of the defined data leakage measure, as well as its connection with different splitting techniques and the performance optimism of prediction models.

Abstract The need for efficient and reliable logistics solutions has increased significantly in the last decade. Traffic forecasts are a promising source of information that can be used to improve the planning of delivery schedules. However, most existing traffic forecasting approaches only support a forecasting horizon of up to an hour, which is insufficient for per-day-based schedule planning. In this paper, we focus on short-term traffic forecasting for up to four hours. We first propose a data collection process integrating traffic speed, incidents, weather, and holiday information. We have used this process to collect real-world traffic data for 115 days. We then define and evaluate twelve models for vehicle traffic forecasting, including well-known time series forecasting approaches and state-of-the-art deep learning models. Our results show that the best model in our comparison improved the accuracy by approximately 30% compared to a naive forecaster that repeats the last known value. The evaluation also shows that LSTM-based approaches are competitive to state-of-the-art models. Overall, the proposed deep-learning-based models perform best while requiring a smaller input timeframe than statistical models.

Abstract In warehouses, order picking is known to be the most labor-intensive and costly task in which the employees account for a large part of the warehouse performance. Hence, many approaches exist, that optimize the order picking process based on diverse economic criteria. However, most of these approaches focus on a single economic objective at once and disregard ergonomic criteria in their optimization. Further, the influence of the placement of the items to be picked is underestimated and accordingly, too little attention is paid to the interdependence of these two problems. In this work, we aim at optimizing the storage assignment and the order picking problem within mezzanine warehouse with regards to their reciprocal influence. We propose a customized version of the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for optimizing the storage assignment problem as well as an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm for optimizing the order picking problem. Both algorithms incorporate multiple economic and ergonomic constraints simultaneously. Furthermore, the algorithms incorporate knowledge about the interdependence between both problems, aiming to improve the overall warehouse performance. Our evaluation results show that our proposed algorithms return better storage assignments and order pick routes compared to commonly used techniques for the following quality indicators for comparing Pareto fronts: Coverage, Generational Distance, Euclidian Distance, Pareto Front Size, and Inverted Generational Distance. Additionally, the evaluation regarding the interaction of both algorithms shows a better performance when combining both proposed algorithms.

In today’s world, circumstances, processes, and requirements for software systems are becoming increasingly complex. To operate properly in such dynamic environments, software systems must adapt to these changes, which has led to the research area of Self-Adaptive Systems (SAS). Platooning is one example of adaptive systems in Intelligent Transportation Systems, which is the ability of vehicles to travel with close inter-vehicle distances. This technology leads to an increase in road throughput and safety, which directly addresses the increased infrastructure needs due to increased traffic on the roads. However, the No-Free-Lunch theorem states that the performance of one adaptation planning strategy is not necessarily transferable to other problems. Moreover, especially in the field of SAS, the selection of the most appropriate strategy depends on the current situation of the system. In this article, we address the problem of self-aware optimization of adaptation planning strategies by designing a framework that includes situation detection, strategy selection, and parameter optimization of the selected strategies. We apply our approach on the case study platooning coordination and evaluate the performance of the proposed framework.

Applications on mobile devices face varying network conditions in cellular networks. The connected radio cell is often changing, especially with moving devices. Different access technologies, varying signal strengths, or distance to the connected radio tower influence the Quality of Service (QoS) of mobile applications. Existing technologies like buffering or adaptive video streaming work reactive, i.e., they react to a decreasing download bitrate. In contrast, these technologies and mobile applications in general could benefit from early knowledge of the expected connection quality.This work investigates the predictability of QoS metrics in cellular networks based on the experience of previous measurements. For this, we developed an Android app to measure download bitrates with minimal data consumption. We performed over 90 000 measurements using a single network operator and analyzed how precise QoS indicators like packet round trip times and download bitrates can be predicted. We developed a methodology to predict the expected download bitrate along a route and present our approach of aggregating measurements into hexagons of dynamic size. The core contributions of this work are (i) a methodology and implementation of systematic measurement data collection, (ii) an open data publication of our measurement data set, and (iii) an approach for predicting QoS metrics in cellular networks based on aggregated measurements. Our results show, that our approach is able to predict the downlink bitrate, the packet round trip time (ping), or DNS query duration along a given route.

Abstract In the last decades, the classical Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), i.e., assigning a set of orders to vehicles and planning their routes has been intensively researched. As only the assignment of order to vehicles and their routes is already an NP-complete problem, the application of these algorithms in practice often fails to take into account the constraints and restrictions that apply in real-world applications, the so called rich VRP (rVRP) and are limited to single aspects. In this work, we incorporate the main relevant real-world constraints and requirements. We propose a two-stage strategy and a Timeline algorithm for time windows and pause times, and apply a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) individually to the problem to find optimal solutions. Our evaluation of eight different problem instances against four state-of-the-art algorithms shows that our approach handles all given constraints in a reasonable time.

In the recent past, platooning evolved into an attractive cooperative driving technology, broadly discussed in research and practice. Vehicles in platoons use cooperative adaptive cruise control to drive at close distances to each other. Platooning (i) increases the capacity of the street by a factor of 2; (ii) reduces the fuel consumption and emissions by up to 20%; and (iii) has social implications as it increases driver comfort and safety. As platooning research progresses, platooning coordination becomes a major research focus. The coordination of platoons, including the assignment of vehicles to platoons, the management of inter- and intra-platoon interactions, and the coordination of interactions with other vehicles is an important step towards an effective usage of platooning in practice. Based on a literature review of 1,600 papers, this survey provides an overview of state of the art in platooning coordination research for both cars and trucks. In this paper, we present a novel taxonomy for platooning coordination and classify existing approaches. We use the results of the literature review to discuss challenges and outline avenues for future work such as multi-objectiveness and individualisation.

Nowadays, in order to keep track of the fast changing requirements of Internet applications, auto-scaling is used as an essential mechanism for adapting the number of provisioned resources to the resource demand. The straightforward approach is to deploy a set of common and opensource single-service auto-scalers for each service independently. However, this deployment leads to problems such as bottleneck-shifting and increased oscillations. Existing auto-scalers that scale applications consisting of multiple services are kept closed-source. To face these challenges, we first survey existing auto-scalers and highlight current challenges. Then, we introduce Chamulteon, a redesign of our previously introduced mechanism, which can scale applications consisting of multiple services in a coordinated manner. We evaluate Chamulteon against four different well-cited auto-scalers in four sets of measurement-based experiments where we use diverse environments (VM vs. Docker), real-world traces, and vary the scale of the demanded resources. Overall, Chamulteon achieves the best auto-scaling performance based on established user-oriented and endorsed elasticity metrics.

Attacks on software systems are becoming more and more frequent, aggressive and sophisticated. With the changing threat landscape, in 2018, organizations are looking at when they will be attacked, not if. Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) can help in defending against these attacks. The systems that host IDSs require extensive computing resources as IDSs tend to detect attacks under overloaded conditions wrongfully. With the end of Moore's law and the growing adoption of Internet of Things, designers of security systems can no longer expect processing power to keep up the pace with them. This limitation requires ways to increase the performance of these systems without adding additional compute power. In this work, we present two dynamic and a static approach to bypass IDS for traffic deemed benign. We provide its prototype implementation and evaluate our solution. Our evaluation shows promising results. Performance is increased up to the level of a system without an IDS. Attack detection is within the margin of error from the 100% rate. However, our findings show that dynamic approaches perform best when using software switches. The use of a hardware switch reduces the detection rate and performance significantly.

Nowadays, to keep track with the fast changing requirements of internet applications, auto-scaling is an essential mechanism for adapting the number of provisioned resources to the resource demand. In the context of public clouds, there exist different natures of cost-models for charging resources. However, the accounted resource units and charged resource units may differ significantly due to the applied cost model. This can lead to a significant increase of charged costs when using an auto-scaler as it tries to match the demand of the application as close as possible. In the literature, several auto-scalers exist that support cost-aware scaling decisions but they introduce inherent drawbacks. In this work, this lack of existing cost-aware mechanisms is addressed by introducing a mediator between an application and the auto-scaler. This cost-aware mechanism is called FOX. It leverages knowledge of the charging model of the public cloud and reviews the scaling decisions found by the auto-scaler to reduce the charged costs to a minimum. More precisely, FOX delays or omits releases of resources to avoid additional charging costs if the resource is required in the future. Hereby, FOX is not restricted to use one specific auto-scaler but offers interfaces to use any auto-scaler. For an evalation under controlled conditions, FOX scales a multi-tier application deployed in a private cloud that is stressed with two real world workloads: BibSonomy and IBM CICS. As FOX provides an interface for auto-scalers, we evaluate the cost-aware mechanism with three state of the art auto-scalers: React, Adapt, and Reg. The experiments show that FOX is able to reduce the charged costs by 34% at maximum for the Amazon EC2 charging model. According to the cost model, FOX provisions more resources than required. This results in a decreased SLO violation rate from 28% to 2% at maximum. The accounted instance time increases at max. by 30%.