Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at a given time represents only a small fraction of what is needed to predict future states, either due to measurement uncertainty or because only a small fraction of the state can be observed. This is true for example in solar physics, where we can observe the Sun’s surface and atmosphere, but its evolution is driven by internal processes for which we lack direct measurements. In this paper, we tackle the probabilistic prediction of partially observable, long-memory dynamical systems, with applications to solar dynamics and the evolution of active regions. We show that standard inference schemes, such as autoregressive rollouts, fail to capture long-range dependencies in the data, largely because they do not integrate past information effectively. To overcome this, we propose a multiscale inference scheme for diffusion models, tailored to physical processes. Our method generates trajectories that are temporally fine-grained near the present and coarser as we move farther away, which enables capturing long-range temporal dependencies without increasing computational cost. When integrated into a diffusion model, we show that our inference scheme significantly reduces the bias of the predicted distributions and improves rollout stability.

While foundation models have shown promise across a variety of fields, astronomy lacks a unified framework for joint modeling across its highly diverse data modalities. In this paper, we present AION-1, the first large-scale multimodal foundation family of models for astronomy. AION-1 enables arbitrary transformations between heterogeneous data types using a two-stage architecture: modality-specific tokenization followed by transformer-based masked modeling of cross-modal token sequences. Trained on over 200M astronomical objects, AION-1 demonstrates strong performance across regression, classification, generation, and object retrieval tasks. Beyond astronomy, AION-1 provides a scalable blueprint for multimodal scientific foundation models that can seamlessly integrate heterogeneous combinations of real-world observations. Our model release is entirely open source, including the dataset, training script, and weights.

We introduce multiple physics pretraining (MPP), an autoregressive task-agnostic pretraining approach for physical surrogate modeling of spatiotemporal systems with transformers. In MPP, rather than training one model on a specific physical system, we train a backbone model to predict the dynamics of multiple heterogeneous physical systems simultaneously in order to learn features that are broadly useful across systems and facilitate transfer. In order to learn effectively in this setting, we introduce a shared embedding and normalization strategy that projects the fields of multiple systems into a shared embedding space. We validate the efficacy of our approach on both pretraining and downstream tasks over a broad fluid mechanics-oriented benchmark. We show that a single MPP-pretrained transformer is able to match or outperform task-specific baselines on all pretraining sub-tasks without the need for finetuning. For downstream tasks, we demonstrate that finetuning MPP-trained models results in more accurate predictions across multiple time-steps on systems with previously unseen physical components or higher dimensional systems compared to training from scratch or finetuning pretrained video foundation models. We open-source our code and model weights trained at multiple scales for reproducibility.

Finding informative low-dimensional representations that can be computed efficiently in large datasets is an important problem in data analysis. Recently, contrastive Principal Component Analysis (cPCA) was proposed as a more informative generalization of PCA that takes advantage of contrastive learning. However, the performance of cPCA is sensitive to hyper-parameter choice and there is currently no online algorithm for implementing cPCA. Here, we introduce a modified cPCA method, which we denote cPCA∗, that is more interpretable and less sensitive to the choice of hyper-parameter. We derive an online algorithm for cPCA∗and show that it maps onto a neural network with local learning rules, so it can potentially be implemented in energy efficient neuromorphic hardware. We evaluate the performance of our online algorithm on real datasets and highlight the differences and similarities with the original formulation.

A longstanding challenge in neuroscience is to understand neural mechanisms underlying the brain’s remarkable ability to learn and detect transformations of objects due to motion. Translations and rotations of images can be viewed as orthogonal transformations in the space of pixel intensity vectors. Every orthogonal transformation can be decomposed into rotations within irreducible two-dimensional subspaces (or representations). For sets of commuting transformations, known as toroidal groups, Cohen and Welling proposed a mathematical framework for learning the irreducible representations. We explore the possibility that the brain also learns irreducible representations using a biologically plausible learning mechanism. The first is based on SVD of the anti-symmetrized outer product of the vectors representing consecutive images and is implemented by a single-layer neural network. The second is based on PCA of the difference between consecutive frames and is implemented in a two-layer network but with greater biological plausibility. Both networks learn image rotations (replicating Cohen and Welling’s results) as well as translations. It would be interesting to search for the proposed networks in nascent connectomics and physiology datasets.

Predictive coding (PC) has emerged as an influential normative model of neural computation with numerous extensions and applications. As such, much effort has been put into mapping PC faithfully onto the cortex, but there are issues that remain unresolved or controversial. In particular, current implementations often involve separate value and error neurons and require symmetric forward and backward weights across different brain regions. These features have not been experimentally confirmed. In this work, we show that the PC framework in the linear regime can be modified to map faithfully onto the cortical hierarchy in a manner compatible with empirical observations. By employing a disentangling-inspired constraint on hidden-layer neural activities, we derive an upper bound for the PC objective. Optimization of this upper bound leads to an algorithm that shows the same performance as the original objective and maps onto a biologically plausible network. The units of this network can be interpreted as multi-compartmental neurons with non-Hebbian learning rules, with a remarkable resemblance to recent experimental findings. There exist prior models which also capture these features, but they are phenomenological, while our work is a normative derivation. This allows us to determine which features are necessary for the functioning of the model. For instance, the network we derive does not involve one-to-one connectivity or signal multiplexing, which the phenomenological models require, indicating that these features are not necessary for learning in the cortex. The normative nature of our algorithm in the simplified linear case also allows us to prove interesting properties of the framework and analytically understand the computational role of our network's components. The parameters of our network have natural interpretations as physiological quantities in a multi-compartmental model of pyramidal neurons, providing a concrete link between PC and experimental measurements carried out in the cortex.

The brain must extract behaviorally relevant latent variables from the signals streamed by the sensory organs. Such latent variables are often encoded in the dynamics that generated the signal rather than in the specific realization of the waveform. Therefore, one problem faced by the brain is to segment time series based on underlying dynamics. We present two algorithms for performing this segmentation task that are biologically plausible, which we define as acting in a streaming setting and all learning rules being local. One algorithm is model based and can be derived from an optimization problem involving a mixture of autoregressive processes. This algorithm relies on feedback in the form of a prediction error and can also be used for forecasting future samples. In some brain regions, such as the retina, the feedback connections necessary to use the prediction error for learning are absent. For this case, we propose a second, model-free algorithm that uses a running estimate of the autocorrelation structure of the signal to perform the segmentation. We show that both algorithms do well when tasked with segmenting signals drawn from autoregressive models with piecewise-constant parameters. In particular, the segmentation accuracy is similar to that obtained from oracle-like methods in which the ground-truth parameters of the autoregressive models are known. We also test our methods on data sets generated by alternating snippets of voice recordings. We provide implementations of our algorithms at https://github.com/ttesileanu/bio-time-series.

A major problem in motor control is understanding how the brain plans and executes proper movements in the face of delayed and noisy stimuli. A prominent framework for addressing such control problems is Optimal Feedback Control (OFC). OFC generates control actions that optimize behaviorally relevant criteria by integrating noisy sensory stimuli and the predictions of an internal model using the Kalman filter or its extensions. However, a satisfactory neural model of Kalman filtering and control is lacking because existing proposals have the following limitations: not considering the delay of sensory feedback, training in alternating phases, requiring knowledge of the noise covariance matrices, as well as that of systems dynamics. Moreover, the majority of these studies considered Kalman filtering in isolation, and not jointly with control. To address these shortcomings, we introduce a novel online algorithm which combines adaptive Kalman filtering with a model free control approach (i.e., policy gradient algorithm). We implement this algorithm in a biologically plausible neural network with local synaptic plasticity rules. This network, with local synaptic plasticity rules, performs system identification, Kalman filtering and control with delayed noisy sensory feedback. This network performs system identification and Kalman filtering, without the need for multiple phases with distinct update rules or the knowledge of the noise covariances. It can perform state estimation with delayed sensory feedback, with the help of an internal model. It learns the control policy without requiring any knowledge of the dynamics, thus avoiding the need for weight transport. In this way, our implementation of OFC solves the credit assignment problem needed to produce the appropriate sensory-motor control in the presence of stimulus delay.

Cortical pyramidal neurons receive inputs from multiple distinct neural populations and integrate these inputs in separate dendritic compartments. We explore the possibility that cortical microcircuits implement canonical correlation analysis (CCA), an unsupervised learning method that projects the inputs onto a common subspace so as to maximize the correlations between the projections. To this end, we seek a multichannel CCA algorithm that can be implemented in a biologically plausible neural network. For biological plausibility, we require that the network operates in the online setting and its synaptic update rules are local. Starting from a novel CCA objective function, we derive an online optimization algorithm whose optimization steps can be implemented in a single-layer neural network with multicompartmental neurons and local non-Hebbian learning rules. We also derive an extension of our online CCA algorithm with adaptive output rank and output whitening. Interestingly, the extension maps onto a neural network whose neural architecture and synaptic updates resemble neural circuitry and non-Hebbian plasticity observed in the cortex.

To guide behavior, the brain extracts relevant features from high-dimensional data streamed by sensory organs. Neuroscience experiments demonstrate that the processing of sensory inputs by cortical neurons is modulated by instructive signals which provide context and task-relevant information. Here, adopting a normative approach, we model these instructive signals as supervisory inputs guiding the projection of the feedforward data. Mathematically, we start with a family of Reduced-Rank Regression (RRR) objective functions which include Reduced Rank (minimum) Mean Square Error (RRMSE) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA), and derive novel offline and online optimization algorithms, which we call Bio-RRR. The online algorithms can be implemented by neural networks whose synaptic learning rules resemble calcium plateau potential dependent plasticity observed in the cortex. We detail how, in our model, the calcium plateau potential can be interpreted as a backpropagating error signal. We demonstrate that, despite relying exclusively on biologically plausible local learning rules, our algorithms perform competitively with existing implementations of RRMSE and CCA.

Learning latent features from time series data is an important problem in both machine learning and brain function. One approach, called Slow Feature Analysis (SFA), leverages the slowness of many salient features relative to the rapidly varying input signals. Furthermore, when trained on naturalistic stimuli, SFA reproduces interesting properties of cells in the primary visual cortex and hippocampus, suggesting that the brain uses temporal slowness as a computational principle for learning latent features. However, despite the potential relevance of SFA for modeling brain function, there is currently no SFA algorithm with a biologically plausible neural network implementation, by which we mean an algorithm operates in the online setting and can be mapped onto a neural network with local synaptic updates. In this work, starting from an SFA objective, we derive an SFA algorithm, called Bio-SFA, with a biologically plausible neural network implementation. We validate Bio-SFA on naturalistic stimuli.