Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. While Large Language Model (LLM) agents demonstrate emergent reasoning and decision-making abilities, they lack a principled framework for capturing latent structures and modeling uncertainty. In this work, we explore for the first time how to bridge LLM agents with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) to address agentic reasoning under uncertainty. To this end, we introduce Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian agentic framework that (i) guides LLM agents in following key principles of PGMs through natural language and (ii) refines the resulting posterior distributions via numerical Bayesian inference. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise, vPGM bypasses expert‐driven model design, making it well‐suited for scenarios with limited assumptions. We evaluated our model on several agentic reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

Testing conditional independence (CI) has many important applications, such as Bayesian network learning and causal discovery. Although several approaches have been developed for learning CI structures for observed variables, those existing methods generally fail to work when the variables of interest can not be directly observed and only discretized values of those variables are available. For example, if $X_1$, $\tilde{X}_2$ and $X_3$ are the observed variables, where $\tilde{X}_2$ is a discretization of the latent variable $X_2$, applying the existing methods to the observations of $X_1$, $\tilde{X}_2$ and $X_3$ would lead to a false conclusion about the underlying CI of variables $X_1$, $X_2$ and $X_3$. Motivated by this, we propose a CI test specifically designed to accommodate the presence of discretization. To achieve this, a bridge equation and nodewise regression are used to recover the precision coefficients reflecting the conditional dependence of the latent continuous variables under the nonparanormal model. An appropriate test statistic has been proposed, and its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis of CI has been derived. Theoretical analysis, along with empirical validation on various datasets, rigorously demonstrates the effectiveness of our testing methods.

Recent advances have shown that statistical tests for the rank of cross-covariance matrices play an important role in causal discovery. These rank tests include partial correlation tests as special cases and provide further graphical information about latent variables. Existing rank tests typically assume that all the continuous variables can be perfectly measured, and yet, in practice many variables can only be measured after discretization. For example, in psychometric studies, the continuous level of certain personality dimensions of a person can only be measured after being discretized into order-preserving options such as disagree, neutral, and agree. Motivated by this, we propose Mixed data Permutation-based Rank Test (MPRT), which properly controls the statistical errors even when some or all variables are discretized. Theoretically, we establish the exchangeability and estimate the asymptotic null distribution by permutations; as a consequence, MPRT can effectively control the Type I error in the presence of discretization while previous methods cannot. Empirically, our method is validated by extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world data to demonstrate its effectiveness as well as applicability in causal discovery (code will be available at https://github.com/dongxinshuai/scm-identify).

Active learning (AL) aims to improve model performance within a fixed labeling budget by choosing the most informative data points to label. Existing AL focuses on the single-domain setting, where all data come from the same domain (e.g., the same dataset). However, many real-world tasks often involve multiple domains. For example, in visual recognition, it is often desirable to train an image classifier that works across different environments (e.g., different backgrounds), where images from each environment constitute one domain. Such a multi-domain AL setting is challenging for prior methods because they (1) ignore the similarity among different domains when assigning labeling budget and (2) fail to handle distribution shift of data across different domains. In this paper, we propose the first general method, dubbed composite active learning (CAL), for multi-domain AL. Our approach explicitly considers the domain-level and instance-level information in the problem; CAL first assigns domain-level budgets according to domain-level importance, which is estimated by optimizing an upper error bound that we develop; with the domain-level budgets, CAL then leverages a certain instance-level query strategy to select samples to label from each domain. Our theoretical analysis shows that our method achieves a better error bound compared to current AL methods. Our empirical results demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art AL methods on both synthetic and real-world multi-domain datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/multi-domain-active-learning.

Counterfactual reasoning is pivotal in human cognition and especially important for providing explanations and making decisions. While Judea Pearl's influential approach is theoretically elegant, its generation of a counterfactual scenario often requires too much deviation from the observed scenarios to be feasible, as we show using simple examples. To mitigate this difficulty, we propose a framework of natural counterfactuals and a method for generating counterfactuals that are more feasible with respect to the actual data distribution. Our methodology incorporates a certain amount of backtracking when needed, allowing changes in causally preceding variables to minimize deviations from realistic scenarios. Specifically, we introduce a novel optimization framework that permits but also controls the extent of backtracking with a "naturalness'' criterion. Empirical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The code is available at https://github.com/GuangyuanHao/natural_counterfactuals.

Domain adaptation aims to mitigate distribution shifts among different domains. However, traditional formulations are mostly limited to categorical domains, greatly simplifying nuanced domain relationships in the real world. In this work, we tackle a generalization with taxonomy-structured domains, which formalizes domains with nested, hierarchical similarity structures such as animal species and product catalogs. We build on the classic adversarial framework and introduce a novel taxonomist, which competes with the adversarial discriminator to preserve the taxonomy information. The equilibrium recovers the classic adversarial domain adaptation’s solution if given a non-informative domain taxonomy (e.g., a flat taxonomy where all leaf nodes connect to the root node) while yielding non-trivial results with other taxonomies. Empirically, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets with successful adaptation.

Baojun Wang, Zhao Zhang, Kun Xu, Guang-Yuan Hao, Yuyang Zhang, Lifeng Shang, Linlin Li, Xiao Chen, Xin Jiang, Qun Liu. Proceedings of the 2021 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing. 2021.

In this work, we present an interesting attempt on mixture generation: absorbing different image concepts (e.g., content and style) from different domains and thus generating a new domain with learned concepts. In particular, we propose a mixture generative adversarial network (MIXGAN). MIXGAN learns concepts of content and style from two domains respectively, and thus can join them for mixture generation in a new domain, i.e., generating images with content from one domain and style from another. MIXGAN overcomes the limitation of current GAN-based models which either generate new images in the same domain as they observed in training stage, or require off-the-shelf content templates for transferring or translation. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of MIXGAN as compared to related state-of-the-art GAN-based models.