Cardiac digital twins are computational tools capturing key functional and anatomical characteristics of patient hearts for investigating disease phenotypes and predicting responses to therapy. When paired with large-scale computational resources and large clinical datasets, digital twin technology can enable virtual clinical trials on virtual cohorts to fast-track therapy development. Here, we present an open-source automated pipeline for personalising ventricular electrophysiological function based on routinely acquired magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG). Using MRI-based anatomical models, a sequential Monte-Carlo approximate Bayesian computational inference method is extended to infer electrical activation and repolarisation characteristics from the ECG. Fast simulations are conducted with a reaction-Eikonal model, including the Purkinje network and biophysically-detailed subcellular ionic current dynamics for repolarisation. For each patient, parameter uncertainty is represented by inferring an envelope of plausible ventricular models rather than a single one, which means that parameter uncertainty can be propagated to therapy evaluation. Furthermore, we have developed techniques for translating from reaction-Eikonal to monodomain simulations, which allows more realistic simulations of cardiac electrophysiology. The pipeline is demonstrated in three healthy subjects, where our inferred pseudo-diffusion reaction-Eikonal models reproduced the patient's ECG with a median Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.9, and then translated to monodomain simulations with a median correlation coefficient of 0.84 across all subjects. We then demonstrate our digital twins for virtual evaluation of Dofetilide with uncertainty quantification. These evaluations using our cardiac digital twins reproduced dose-dependent QTc and T peak to T end prolongations that are in keeping with large population drug response data. The methodologies for cardiac digital twinning presented here are a step towards personalised virtual therapy testing and can be scaled to generate virtual populations for clinical trials to fast-track therapy evaluation. The tools developed for this paper are open-source, documented, and made publicly available.

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell cancer that occurs in the bone marrow. A leading treatment for MM is the monoclonal antibody Daratumumab, targeting the CD38 receptor, which is highly overexpressed in myeloma cells. In this work we model drug resistance via loss of CD38 expression, which is a proposed mechanism of resistance to Daratumumab treatment. We develop an ODE model that includes drug resistance via two mechanisms: a direct effect in which CD38 expression is lost without cell death in response to Daratumumab, and an indirect effect in which CD38 expression switches on and off in the cancer cells; myeloma cells that do not express CD38 have lower fitness but are shielded from the drug action. The model also incorporates competition with healthy cells, death of healthy cells due to off-target drug effects, and a Michaelis-Menten type immune response. Using optimal control theory, we study the effect of the drug resistance mechanisms and the off-target drug effect on the optimal treatment regime. We identify a general increase in the duration and costs of optimal treatment, as a result of these added mechanisms. Several distinct optimal treatment regimes are identified within the parameter space.

Cardiac in silico clinical trials can virtually assess the safety and efficacy of therapies using human-based modelling and simulation. These technologies can provide mechanistic explanations for clinically observed pathological behaviour. Designing virtual cohorts for in silico trials requires exploiting clinical data to capture the physiological variability in the human population. The clinical characterisation of ventricular activation and the Purkinje network is challenging, especially non-invasively. Our study aims to present a novel digital twinning pipeline that can efficiently generate and integrate Purkinje networks into human multiscale biventricular models based on subject-specific clinical 12-lead electrocardiogram and magnetic resonance recordings. Essential novel features of the pipeline are the human-based Purkinje network generation method, personalisation considering ECG R wave progression as well as QRS morphology, and translation from reduced-order Eikonal models to equivalent biophysically-detailed monodomain ones. We demonstrate ECG simulations in line with clinical data with clinical image-based multiscale models with Purkinje in four control subjects and two hypertrophic cardiomyopathy patients (simulated and clinical QRS complexes with Pearson's correlation coefficients > 0.7). Our methods also considered possible differences in the density of Purkinje myocardial junctions in the Eikonal-based inference as regional conduction velocities. These differences translated into regional coupling effects between Purkinje and myocardial models in the monodomain formulation. In summary, we demonstrate a digital twin pipeline enabling simulations yielding clinically consistent ECGs with clinical CMR image-based biventricular multiscale models, including personalised Purkinje in healthy and cardiac disease conditions.

Fibrosis, a pathological increase in extracellular matrix proteins, is a significant health issue that hinders the function of many organs in the body, in some cases fatally. In the heart, fibrosis impacts on electrical propagation in a complex and poorly predictable fashion, potentially serving as a substrate for dangerous arrhythmias. Individual risk depends on the spatial manifestation of fibrotic tissue, and learning the spatial arrangement on the fine scale in order to predict these impacts still relies upon invasive ex vivo procedures. As a result, the effects of spatial variability on the symptomatic impact of cardiac fibrosis remain poorly understood. In this work, we address the issue of availability of such imaging data via a computational methodology for generating new realisations of cardiac fibrosis microstructure. Using the Perlin noise technique from computer graphics, together with an automated calibration process that requires only a single training image, we demonstrate successful capture of collagen texturing in four types of fibrosis microstructure observed in histological sections. We then use this generator to quantitatively analyse the conductive properties of these different types of cardiac fibrosis, as well as produce three-dimensional realisations of histologically-observed patterning. Owing to the generator's flexibility and automated calibration process, we also anticipate that it might be useful in producing additional realisations of other physiological structures.

The realisation of precision cardiology requires novel techniques for the non-invasive characterisation of individual patients’ cardiac function to inform therapeutic and diagnostic decision-making. Both electrocardiography and imaging are used for the clinical diagnosis of cardiac disease. The integration of multi-modal datasets through advanced computational methods could enable the development of the cardiac ‘digital twin’, a comprehensive virtual tool that mechanistically reveals a patient's heart condition from clinical data and simulates treatment outcomes. The adoption of cardiac digital twins requires the non-invasive efficient personalisation of the electrophysiological properties in cardiac models. This study develops new computational techniques to estimate key ventricular activation properties for individual subjects by exploiting the synergy between non-invasive electrocardiography, cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging and modelling and simulation. More precisely, we present an efficient sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation-based inference method, integrated with Eikonal simulations and torso-biventricular models constructed based on clinical CMR imaging. The method also includes a novel strategy to treat combined continuous (conduction speeds) and discrete (earliest activation sites) parameter spaces and an efficient dynamic time warping-based ECG comparison algorithm. We demonstrate results from our inference method on a cohort of twenty virtual subjects with cardiac ventricular myocardial-mass volumes ranging from 74 cm3 to 171 cm3 and considering low versus high resolution for the endocardial discretisation (which determines possible locations of the earliest activation sites). Results show that our method can successfully infer the ventricular activation properties in sinus rhythm from non-invasive epicardial activation time maps and ECG recordings, achieving higher accuracy for the endocardial speed and sheet (transmural) speed than for the fibre or sheet-normal directed speeds.