Determining and verifying product provenance remains a critical challenge in global supply chains, particularly as geopolitical conflicts and shifting borders create new incentives for misrepresentation of commodities, such as hiding the origin of illegally harvested timber or stolen agricultural products. Stable Isotope Ratio Analysis (SIRA), combined with Gaussian process regression-based isoscapes, has emerged as a powerful tool for geographic origin verification. While these models are now actively deployed in operational settings supporting regulators, certification bodies, and companies, they remain constrained by data scarcity and suboptimal dataset selection. In this work, we introduce a novel deployed data valuation framework designed to enhance the selection and utilization of training data for machine learning models applied in SIRA. By quantifying the marginal utility of individual samples using Shapley values, our method guides strategic, cost-effective, and robust sampling campaigns within active monitoring programs. By prioritizing high-informative samples, our approach improves model robustness and predictive accuracy across diverse datasets and geographies. Our framework has been implemented and validated in a live provenance verification system currently used by enforcement agencies, demonstrating tangible, real-world impact. Through extensive experiments and deployment in a live provenance verification system, we show that this system significantly enhances provenance verification, mitigates fraudulent trade practices, and strengthens regulatory enforcement of global supply chains.

Illegal logging poses a significant threat to global biodiversity, climate stability, and depresses international prices for legal wood harvesting and responsible forest products trade, affecting livelihoods and communities across the globe. Stable isotope ratio analysis (SIRA) is rapidly becoming an important tool for determining the harvest location of traded, organic, products. The spatial pattern in stable isotope ratio values depends on factors such as atmospheric and environmental conditions and can thus be used for geographic origin identification. We present here the results of a deployed machine learning pipeline where we leverage both isotope values and atmospheric variables to determine timber harvest location. Additionally, the pipeline incorporates uncertainty estimation to facilitate the interpretation of harvest location determination for analysts. We present our experiments on a collection of oak (Quercus spp.) tree samples from its global range. Our pipeline outperforms comparable state-of-the-art models determining geographic harvest origin of commercially traded wood products, and has been used by European enforcement agencies to identify harvest location misrepresentation. We also identify opportunities for further advancement of our framework and how it can be generalized to help identify the origin of falsely labeled organic products throughout the supply chain.

Building on their demonstrated ability to perform a variety of tasks, we investigate the application of large language models (LLMs) to enhance in-depth analytical reasoning within the context of intelligence analysis. Intelligence analysts typically work with massive dossiers to draw connections between seemingly unrelated entities, and uncover adversaries’ plans and motives. We explore if and how LLMs can be helpful to analysts for this task and develop an architecture to augment the capabilities of an LLM with a memory module called dynamic evidence trees (DETs) to develop and track multiple investigation threads. Through extensive experiments on multiple datasets, we highlight how LLMs, as-is, are still inadequate to support intelligence analysts and offer recommendations to improve LLMs for such intricate reasoning applications.

This paper leverages open source “big data” intelligence to develop predictive models that can provide timely, relevant and accurate indications, warning, and tracking of migration flows / movements of large groups (> 100 persons) through South and Central America to the southwest border of the United States. We describe experiments with a live forecasting setup, development and refinement of predictive models, and how machine learning models can yield insight into the factors underlying mass migration.