In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce *TiRex* that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the Hugging Face benchmarks *GiftEval* and *Chronos-ZS*, outperforming significantly larger models including *TabPFN-TS* (Prior Labs), *Chronos Bolt* (Amazon), *TimesFM* (Google), and *Moirai* (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical when deploying machine learning models in the real world. Outlier exposure methods, which incorporate auxiliary outlier data in the training process, can drastically improve OOD detection performance compared to approaches without advanced training strategies. We introduce Hopfield Boosting, a boosting approach, which leverages modern Hopfield energy to sharpen the decision boundary between the in-distribution and OOD data. Hopfield Boosting encourages the model to focus on hard-to-distinguish auxiliary outlier examples that lie close to the decision boundary between in-distribution and auxiliary outlier data. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art in OOD detection with outlier exposure, improving the FPR95 from 2.28 to 0.92 on CIFAR-10, from 11.76 to 7.94 on CIFAR-100, and from 50.74 to 36.60 on ImageNet-1K.

To quantify uncertainty, conformal prediction methods are gaining continuously more interest and have already been successfully applied to various domains. However, they are difficult to apply to time series as the autocorrelative structure of time series violates basic assumptions required by conformal prediction. We propose HopCPT, a novel conformal prediction approach for time series that not only copes with temporal structures but leverages them. We show that our approach is theoretically well justified for time series where temporal dependencies are present. In experiments, we demonstrate that our new approach outperforms state-of-the-art conformal prediction methods on multiple real-world time series datasets from four different domains.

The success of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in computer vision is mainly driven by their strong inductive bias, which is strong enough to allow CNNs to solve vision-related tasks with random weights, meaning without learning. Similarly, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) has a strong inductive bias towards storing information over time. However, many real-world systems are governed by conservation laws, which lead to the redistribution of particular quantities {—} e.g.in physical and economical systems. Our novel Mass-Conserving LSTM (MC-LSTM) adheres to these conservation laws by extending the inductive bias of LSTM to model the redistribution of those stored quantities. MC-LSTMs set a new state-of-the-art for neural arithmetic units at learning arithmetic operations, such as addition tasks,which have a strong conservation law, as the sum is constant over time. Further, MC-LSTM is applied to traffic forecasting, modeling a pendulum, and a large benchmark dataset in hydrology, where it sets a new state-of-the-art for predicting peak flows. In the hydrology example, we show that MC-LSTM states correlate with real world processes and are therefore interpretable.