We consider the experimental design problem in an online environment, an important practical task for reducing the variance of estimates in randomized experiments which allows for greater precision, and in turn, improved decision making. In this work, we present algorithms that build on recent advances in online discrepancy minimization which accommodate both arbitrary treatment probabilities and multiple treatments. The proposed algorithms are computational efficient, minimize covariate imbalance, and include randomization which enables robustness to misspecification. We provide worst case bounds on the expected mean squared error of the causal estimate and show that the proposed estimator is no worse than an implicit ridge regression, which are within a logarithmic factor of the best known results for offline experimental design. We conclude with a detailed simulation study showing favorable results relative to complete randomization as well as to offline methods for experimental design with time complexities exceeding our algorithm, which has a linear dependence on the number of observations, by polynomial factors.

Black-box heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) models are increasingly being used to create personalized policies that assign individuals to their optimal treatments. However, they are difficult to understand, and can be burdensome to maintain in a production environment. In this paper, we present a scalable, interpretable personalized experimentation system, implemented and deployed in production at Meta. The system works in a multiple treatment, multiple outcome setting typical at Meta to: (1) learn explanations for black-box HTE models; (2) generate interpretable personalized policies. We evaluate the methods used in the system on publicly available data and Meta use cases, and discuss lessons learnt during the development of the system.

In this work, we address the problem of balanced treatment assignment for experiments by considering an interpretation of the problem as optimization of a two-sample test between test and control units. Using this lens we provide an assignment algorithm that is optimal with respect to the minimum spanning tree test of Friedman and Rafsky [1979]. This assignment to treatment groups may be performed exactly in polynomial time and allows for the design of experiments explicitly targeting the individual treatment effect. We provide a probabilistic interpretation of this process in terms of the most probable element of designs drawn from a determinantal point process. We provide a novel formulation of estimation as transductive inference and show how the tree structures used in design can also be used in an adjustment estimator. We conclude with a simulation study demonstrating the improved efficacy of our method.

We consider the problem of designing a randomized experiment on a source population to estimate the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) on a target population. We propose a novel approach which explicitly considers the target when designing the experiment on the source. Under the covariate shift assumption, we design an unbiased importance-weighted estimator for the target population’s ATE. To reduce the variance of our estimator, we design a covariate balance condition (Target Balance) between the treatment and control groups based on the target population. We show that Target Balance achieves a higher variance reduction asymptotically than methods that do not consider the target population during the design phase. Our experiments illustrate that Target Balance reduces the variance even for small sample sizes.

A commonly applied approach for estimating causal effects from observational data is to apply weights which render treatments independent of observed pre-treatment covariates. Recently emphasis has been placed on deriving balancing weights which explicitly target this independence condition. In this work we introduce permutation weighting, a method for estimating balancing weights using a standard binary classifier (regardless of cardinality of treatment). A large class of probabilistic classifiers may be used in this method; the choice of loss for the classifier implies the particular definition of balance. We bound bias and variance in terms of the excess risk of the classifier, show that these disappear asymptotically, and demonstrate that our classification problem directly minimizes imbalance. Additionally, hyper-parameter tuning and model selection can be performed with standard cross-validation methods. Empirical evaluations indicate that permutation weighting provides favorable performance in comparison to existing methods.

Estimation of importance sampling weights for off-policy evaluation of contextual bandits often results in imbalance—a mismatch between the desired and the actual distribution of state-action pairs after weighting. In this work we present balanced off-policy evaluation (B-OPE), a generic method for estimating weights which minimize this imbalance. Estimation of these weights reduces to a binary classification problem regardless of action type. We show that minimizing the risk of the classifier implies minimization of imbalance to the desired counterfactual distribution. In turn, this is tied to the error of the off-policy estimate, allowing for easy tuning of hyperparameters. We provide experimental evidence that B-OPE improves weighting-based approaches for offline policy evaluation in both discrete and continuous action spaces.

We develop and analyze empirical Bayes Stein-type estimators for use in the estimation of causal effects in large-scale online experiments. While online experiments are generally thought to be distinguished by their large sample size, we focus on the multiplicity of treatment groups. The typical analysis practice is to use simple differences-in-means (perhaps with covariate adjustment) as if all treatment arms were independent. In this work we develop consistent, small bias, shrinkage estimators for this setting. In addition to achieving lower mean squared error these estimators retain important frequentist properties such as coverage under most reasonable scenarios. Modern sequential methods of experimentation and optimization such as multi-armed bandit optimization (where treatment allocations adapt over time to prior responses) benefit from the use of our shrinkage estimators. Exploration under empirical Bayes focuses more efficiently on near-optimal arms, improving the resulting decisions made under uncertainty. We demonstrate these properties by examining seventeen routine experiments conducted on Facebook from April to June 2017.