Architectural decay imposes real costs in terms of developer effort, system correctness, and performance. Over time, those problems are likely to be revealed as explicit implementation issues (defects, feature changes, etc.). Recent empirical studies have demonstrated that there is a significant correlation between architectural "smells"—manifestations of architectural decay—and implementation issues. In this paper, we take a step further in exploring this phenomenon. We analyze the available development data from 10 open-source software systems and show that information regarding current architectural decay in these systems can be used to build models that accurately predict future issue-proneness and change-proneness of the systems’ implementations. As a less intuitive result, we also show that, in cases where historical data for a system is unavailable, such data from other, unrelated systems can provide reasonably accurate issue- and change-proneness prediction capabilities.

When designing a software system, architects make a series of design decisions that directly impact the system's quality. The number of available design alternatives grows rapidly with system size, creating an enormous space of intertwined design concerns that renders manual exploration impractical. We present eQual, a model-driven technique for simulation-based assessment of architectural designs. While it is not possible to guarantee optimal decisions so early in the design process, eQual improves decision quality. eQual is effective in practice because it (1) limits the amount of information the architects have to provide and (2) adapts optimization algorithms to effectively explore massive spaces of design alternatives. We empirically demonstrate that eQual yields designs whose quality is comparable to a set of systems' known optimal designs. A user study shows that, compared to the state-of-the-art, engineers using eQual produce statistically significantly higher-quality designs with a large effect size, are statistically significantly more confident in their designs, and find eQual easier to use.