Causal discovery, or identifying causal relationships from observational data, is a notoriously challenging task, with numerous methods proposed to tackle it. Despite this, in-the-wild evaluation of these methods is still lacking, as works frequently rely on synthetic data evaluation and sparse real-world examples under critical theoretical assumptions. Real-world causal structures, however, are often complex, evolving over time, non-linear, and influenced by unobserved factors, making it hard to decide on a proper causal discovery strategy. To bridge this gap, we introduce CausalRivers, the largest in-the-wild causal discovery benchmarking kit for time-series data to date. CausalRivers features an extensive dataset on river discharge that covers the eastern German territory (666 measurement stations) and the state of Bavaria (494 measurement stations). It spans the years 2019 to 2023 with a 15-minute temporal resolution. Further, we provide additional data from a flood around the Elbe River, as an event with a pronounced distributional shift. Leveraging multiple sources of information and time-series meta-data, we constructed two distinct causal ground truth graphs (Bavaria and eastern Germany). These graphs can be sampled to generate thousands of subgraphs to benchmark causal discovery across diverse and challenging settings. To demonstrate the utility of CausalRivers, we evaluate several causal discovery approaches through a set of experiments to identify areas for improvement. CausalRivers has the potential to facilitate robust evaluations and comparisons of causal discovery methods. Besides this primary purpose, we also expect that this dataset will be relevant for connected areas of research, such as time-series forecasting and anomaly detection. Based on this, we hope to push benchmark-driven method development that fosters advanced techniques for causal discovery, as is the case for many other areas of machine learning.

Deformation monitoring is a crucial task for dam operators, particularly given the rise in extreme weather events associated with climate change. Further, quantifying the expected deformations of a dam is a central part of this endeavor. Current methods rely on in situ data (i.e., water level and temperature) to predict the expected deformations of a dam (typically represented by plumb or trigonometric measurements). However, not all dams are equipped with extensive measurement techniques, resulting in infrequent monitoring. Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) can overcome this limitation, enabling an alternative monitoring scheme for such infrastructures. This study introduces a novel monitoring approach to quantify expected deformations of gravity dams in Germany by integrating the PSI technique with in situ data. Further, it proposes a methodology to find proper statistical representations in a data-driven manner, which extends established statistical approaches. The approach demonstrates plausible deformation patterns as well as accurate predictions for validation data (mean absolute error=1.81 mm), confirming the benefits of the proposed method.