Visual processing starts in the outer retina where photoreceptors transform light into electrochemical signals. These signals are modulated by inhibition from horizontal cells and sent to the inner retina via excitatory bipolar cells. The outer retina is thought to play an important role in contrast invariant coding of visual information, but how the different cell types implement this computation together remains incompletely understood. To understand the role of each cell type, we developed a fully-differentiable biophysical model of a circular patch of mouse outer retina. The model includes 200 cone photoreceptors with a realistic phototransduction cascade and ribbon synapses as well as horizontal and bipolar cells, all with cell-type specific ion channels. Going beyond decades of work constraining biophysical models of neurons only by experimental data, we used a dual approach, constraining some parameters of the model with available measurements and others by a visual task: (1) We fit the parameters of the cone models to whole cell patch-clamp measurements of photocurrents and two-photon glutamate imaging measurements of synaptic release. (2) We then trained the spatiotemporal outer retina model with photoreceptors and the other cell types to perform a visual classification task with varying contrast and luminance levels. We found that our outer retina model could learn to solve the classification task despite contrast and luminance variance in the stimuli. Testing different cell type compositions and connectivity patterns, we found that feedback from horizontal cells did not further improve task performance beyond that of excitatory photoreceptors and bipolar cells. This is surprising given that horizontal cells are positioned to mediate communication across cones and that they add to the model's number of trainable parameters. Finally, we found that our model generalized better to out of distribution contrast levels than a linear classifier. Our work shows how the nonlinearities found in the outer retina can accomplish contrast invariant classification and teases apart the contributions of different cell types.

Multi-compartment Hodgkin-Huxley models are biophysical models of how electrical signals propagate throughout a neuron, and they form the basis of our knowledge of neural computation at the cellular level. However, these models have many free parameters that must be estimated for each cell, and existing fitting methods rely on intracellular voltage measurements that are highly challenging to obtain in-vivo. Recent advances in neural recording technology with high-density probes and arrays enable dense sampling of extracellular voltage from many sites surrounding a neuron, allowing indirect measurement of many compartments of a cell simultaneously. Here, we propose a method for inferring the underlying membrane voltage, biophysical parameters, and the neuron's position relative to the probe, using extracellular measurements alone. We use an Extended Kalman Filter to infer membrane voltage and channel states using efficient, differentiable simulators. Then, we learn the model parameters by maximizing the marginal likelihood using gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the performance of this approach using simulated data and real neuron morphologies.

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) has recently emerged as a powerful framework for Bayesian inference: Neural networks are trained on simulations from a forward model, and learn to rapidly estimate posterior distributions. We here present an SBI framework for parametric spherical deconvolution of diffusion MRI data of the brain. We demonstrate its utility for estimating white matter fibre orientations, mapping uncertainty of voxel-based estimates and performing probabilistic tractography by spatially propagating fibre orientation uncertainty. We conduct an extensive comparison against established Bayesian methods based on Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) and find that: a) in-silico training can lead to calibrated SBI networks with accurate parameter estimates and uncertainty mapping for both single- and multi-shell diffusion MRI, b) SBI allows amortised inference of the posterior distribution of model parameters given unseen observations, which is orders of magnitude faster than MCMC, c) SBI-based tractography yields reconstructions that have a high level of agreement with their MCMC-based counterparts, equal to or higher than scan-rescan reproducibility of estimates. We further demonstrate how SBI design considerations (such as dealing with noise, defining priors and handling model selection) can affect performance, allowing us to identify optimal practices. Taken together, our results show that SBI provides a powerful alternative to classical Bayesian inference approaches for fast and accurate model estimation and uncertainty mapping in MRI.

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe dynamical systems in science, but identifying parameters that explain experimental measurements is challenging. In particular, although ODEs are differentiable and would allow for gradient-based parameter optimization, the nonlinear dynamics of ODEs often lead to many local minima and extreme sensitivity to initial conditions. We therefore propose diffusion tempering, a novel regularization technique for probabilistic numerical methods which improves convergence of gradient-based parameter optimization in ODEs. By iteratively reducing a noise parameter of the probabilistic integrator, the proposed method converges more reliably to the true parameters. We demonstrate that our method is effective for dynamical systems of different complexity and show that it obtains reliable parameter estimates for a Hodgkin–Huxley model with a practically relevant number of parameters.

Amortized Bayesian inference trains neural networks to solve stochastic inference problems using model simulations, thereby making it possible to rapidly perform Bayesian inference for any newly observed data. However, current simulation-based amortized inference methods are simulation-hungry and inflexible: They require the specification of a fixed parametric prior, simulator, and inference tasks ahead of time. Here, we present a new amortized inference method---the Simformer---which overcomes these limitations. By training a probabilistic diffusion model with transformer architectures, the Simformer outperforms current state-of-the-art amortized inference approaches on benchmark tasks and is substantially more flexible: It can be applied to models with function-valued parameters, it can handle inference scenarios with missing or unstructured data, and it can sample arbitrary conditionals of the joint distribution of parameters and data, including both posterior and likelihood. We showcase the performance and flexibility of the Simformer on simulators from ecology, epidemiology, and neuroscience, and demonstrate that it opens up new possibilities and application domains for amortized Bayesian inference on simulation-based models.

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference for simulators with implicit likelihoods. But when we are primarily interested in the quality of predictive simulations, or when the model cannot exactly reproduce the observed data (i.e., is misspecified), targeting the Bayesian posterior may be overly restrictive. Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) aims to robustify inference for (misspecified) simulator models, replacing the likelihood-function with a cost function that evaluates the goodness of parameters relative to data. However, GBI methods generally require running multiple simulations to estimate the cost function at each parameter value during inference, making the approach computationally infeasible for even moderately complex simulators. Here, we propose amortized cost estimation (ACE) for GBI to address this challenge: We train a neural network to approximate the cost function, which we define as the expected distance between simulations produced by a parameter and observed data. The trained network can then be used with MCMC to infer GBI posteriors for any observation without running additional simulations. We show that, on several benchmark tasks, ACE accurately predicts cost and provides predictive simulations that are closer to synthetic observations than other SBI methods, especially for misspecified simulators. Finally, we apply ACE to infer parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley model given real intracellular recordings from the Allen Cell Types Database. ACE identifies better data-matching parameters while being an order of magnitude more simulation-efficient than a standard SBI method. In summary, ACE combines the strengths of SBI methods and GBI to perform robust and simulation-amortized inference for scientific simulators.

Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of SBI in neuroscience involves estimating the parameters governing the response dynamics of Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) models from electrophysiological measurements, by inferring a posterior over the parameters that is consistent with a set of observations. To this end, many SBI methods employ a set of summary statistics or scientifically interpretable features to estimate a surrogate likelihood or posterior. However, currently, there is no way to identify how much each summary statistic or feature contributes to reducing posterior uncertainty. To address this challenge, one could simply compare the posteriors with and without a given feature included in the inference process. However, for large or nested feature sets, this would necessitate repeatedly estimating the posterior, which is computationally expensive or even prohibitive. Here, we provide a more efficient approach based on the SBI method neural likelihood estimation (NLE): We show that one can marginalize the trained surrogate likelihood post-hoc before inferring the posterior to assess the contribution of a feature. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method by identifying the most important features for inferring parameters of an example HH neuron model. Beyond neuroscience, our method is generally applicable to SBI workflows that rely on data features for inference used in other scientific fields.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) solves statistical inverse problems by repeatedly running a stochastic simulator and inferring posterior distributions from model-simulations. To improve simulation efficiency, several inference methods take a sequential approach and iteratively adapt the proposal distributions from which model simulations are generated. However, many of these sequential methods are difficult to use in practice, both because the resulting optimisation problems can be challenging and efficient diagnostic tools are lacking. To overcome these issues, we present Truncated Sequential Neural Posterior Estimation (TSNPE). TSNPE performs sequential inference with truncated proposals, sidestepping the optimisation issues of alternative approaches. In addition, TSNPE allows to efficiently perform coverage tests that can scale to complex models with many parameters. We demonstrate that TSNPE performs on par with previous methods on established benchmark tasks. We then apply TSNPE to two challenging problems from neuroscience and show that TSNPE can successfully obtain the posterior distributions, whereas previous methods fail. Overall, our results demonstrate that TSNPE is an efficient, accurate, and robust inference method that can scale to challenging scientific models.