Current machine learning systems are brittle in the face of distribution shifts (DS), where the target distribution that the system is tested on differs from the source distribution used to train the system. This problem of robustness to DS has been studied extensively in the field of domain adaptation. For deep neural networks, popular methods for unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) are domain matching methods that try to align the marginal distributions in the feature or output space. The current theoretical understanding of these methods, however, are limited and existing theoretical frameworks are not precise enough to characterize their performance in practice. To this end, we derive new bounds based on optimal transport that analyze the UDA problem. Our new bound includes a term which we dub as entanglement, consisting of an expectation of Wasserstein distance between conditionals with respect to changing data distributions. Analysis of the entanglement term provides a novel perspective on the unoptimizable aspects of UDA. In various experiments with multiple models across several DS scenarios, we show that this term can be used to explain the varying performance of UDA algorithms.

The multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) is widely used for analyzing data streams that interact with each other, where events generate new events within their own dimension (via self-excitation) or across different dimensions (via cross excitation). However, in certain applications, the timestamps of individual events in some dimensions are unobservable, and only event counts within intervals are known, referred to as partially interval-censored data. The MHP is unsuitable for handling such data since its estimation requires event timestamps. In this study, we introduce the partially censored multivariate Hawkes process (PCMHP), a novel point process that shares parameter equivalence with the MHP and can effectively model both timestamped and interval-censored data. We demonstrate the capabilities of the PCMHP using synthetic and real-world datasets. First, we illustrate that the PCMHP can approximate MHP parameters and recover the spectral radius using synthetic event histories. Next, we assess the performance of the PCMHP in predicting YouTube popularity and find that the PCMHP outperforms the popularity estimation algorithm Hawkes intensity process (HIP)[1]. Comparing with the fully interval-censored HIP, we show that the PCMHP improves prediction performance by accounting for point process dimensions, particularly when there exist significant cross-dimension interactions. Last, we leverage the PCMHP to gain qualitative insights from a dataset comprising daily COVID-19 case counts from multiple countries and COVID-19-related news articles. By clustering the PCMHP-modeled countries, we unveil hidden interaction patterns between occurrences of COVID-19 cases and news reporting.

We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both types of markets, and show that the goals of maximising bookmaker profit and eliciting information are fundamentally incompatible. A key insight is that profit hinges on the deviation between (the distribution of) bettor and true beliefs, and that heavier tails in bettor belief distribution implies higher profit. Our algorithmic contribution is to introduce online learning methods for price-setting. Traditionally bookmakers update their prices rather infrequently, we present two algorithms that guide price updates upon seeing each bet, assuming very little of bettor belief distributions. The online pricing algorithm achieves stochastic regret of $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ against the worst local maximum, or $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T \log T})$ with high probability against the global maximum under fair odds. More broadly, the inherent tradeoff between profit and information-seeking in binary betting may inspire new understandings of large-scale multi-agent behaviour.

Models of hyperbolic geometry have been successfully used in ML for two main tasks: embedding *models* in unsupervised learning (*e.g.* hierarchies) and embedding *data*. To our knowledge, there are no approaches that provide embeddings for supervised models; even when hyperbolic geometry provides convenient properties for expressing popular hypothesis classes, such as decision trees (and ensembles). In this paper, we propose a full-fledged solution to the problem in three independent contributions. The first linking the theory of losses for class probability estimation to hyperbolic embeddings in Poincar\'e disk model. The second resolving an issue for a clean, unambiguous embedding of (ensembles of) decision trees in this model. The third showing how to smoothly tweak the Poincar\'e hyperbolic distance to improve its encoding and visualization properties near the border of the disk, a crucial region for our application, while keeping hyperbolicity. This last step has substantial independent interest as it is grounded in a generalization of Leibniz-Newton's fundamental Theorem of calculus.

The Fisher information matrix can be used to characterize the local geometry of the parameter space of neural networks. It elucidates insightful theories and useful tools to understand and optimize neural networks. Given its high computational cost, practitioners often use random estimators and evaluate only the diagonal entries. We examine two popular estimators whose accuracy and sample complexity depend on their associated variances. We derive bounds of the variances and instantiate them in neural networks for regression and classification. We navigate trade-offs for both estimators based on analytical and numerical studies. We find that the variance quantities depend on the non-linearity w.r.t. different parameter groups and should not be neglected when estimating the Fisher information.

Classification with rejection emerges as a learning paradigm which allows models to abstain from making predictions. The predominant approach is to alter the supervised learning pipeline by augmenting typical loss functions, letting model rejection incur a lower loss than an incorrect prediction. Instead, we propose a different distributional perspective, where we seek to find an idealized data distribution which maximizes a pretrained model's performance. This can be formalized via the optimization of a loss's risk with a $ \phi$-divergence regularization term. Through this idealized distribution, a rejection decision can be made by utilizing the density ratio between this distribution and the data distribution. We focus on the setting where our $ \phi $-divergences are specified by the family of $ \alpha $-divergence. Our framework is tested empirically over clean and noisy datasets.

We introduce a boosting algorithm to pre-process data for fairness. Starting from an initial fair but inaccurate distribution, our approach shifts towards better data fitting while still ensuring a minimal fairness guarantee. To do so, it learns the sufficient statistics of an exponential family with boosting-compliant convergence. Importantly, we are able to theoretically prove that the learned distribution will have a representation rate and statistical rate data fairness guarantee. Unlike recent optimization based pre-processing methods, our approach can be easily adapted for continuous domain features. Furthermore, when the weak learners are specified to be decision trees, the sufficient statistics of the learned distribution can be examined to provide clues on sources of (un)fairness. Empirical results are present to display the quality of result on real-world data.

We introduce a new family of techniques to post-process (``wrap") a black-box classifier in order to reduce its bias. Our technique builds on the recent analysis of improper loss functions whose optimization can correct any twist in prediction, unfairness being treated as a twist. In the post-processing, we learn a wrapper function which we define as an $\alpha$-tree, which modifies the prediction. We provide two generic boosting algorithms to learn $\alpha$-trees. We show that our modification has appealing properties in terms of composition of $\alpha$-trees, generalization, interpretability, and KL divergence between modified and original predictions. We exemplify the use of our technique in three fairness notions: conditional value-at-risk, equality of opportunity, and statistical parity; and provide experiments on several readily available datasets.

Interval-censored data solely records the aggregated counts of events during specific time intervals -- such as the number of patients admitted to the hospital or the volume of vehicles passing traffic loop detectors -- and not the exact occurrence time of the events. It is currently not understood how to fit the Hawkes point processes to this kind of data. Its typical loss function (the point process log-likelihood) cannot be computed without exact event times. Furthermore, it does not have the independent increments property to use the Poisson likelihood. This work builds a novel point process, a set of tools, and approximations for fitting Hawkes processes within interval-censored data scenarios. First, we define the Mean Behavior Poisson process (MBPP), a novel Poisson process with a direct parameter correspondence to the popular self-exciting Hawkes process. We fit MBPP in the interval-censored setting using an interval-censored Poisson log-likelihood (IC-LL). We use the parameter equivalence to uncover the parameters of the associated Hawkes process. Second, we introduce two novel exogenous functions to distinguish the exogenous from the endogenous events. We propose the multi-impulse exogenous function -- for when the exogenous events are observed as event time -- and the latent homogeneous Poisson process exogenous function -- for when the exogenous events are presented as interval-censored volumes. Third, we provide several approximation methods to estimate the intensity and compensator function of MBPP when no analytical solution exists. Fourth and finally, we connect the interval-censored loss of MBPP to a broader class of Bregman divergence-based functions. Using the connection, we show that the popularity estimation algorithm Hawkes Intensity Process (HIP) is a particular case of the MBPP. We verify our models through empirical testing on synthetic data and real-world data. We find that our MBPP outperforms HIP on real-world datasets for the task of popularity prediction. This work makes it possible to efficiently fit the Hawkes process to interval-censored data.

Point processes are a useful mathematical tool for describing events over time, and so there are many recent approaches for representing and learning them. One notable open question is how to precisely describe the flexibility of point process models and whether there exists a general model that can represent all point processes. Our work bridges this gap. Focusing on the widely used event intensity function representation of point processes, we provide a proof that a class of learnable functions can universally approximate any valid intensity function. The proof connects the well known Stone-Weierstrass Theorem for function approximation, the uniform density of non-negative continuous functions using a transfer functions, the formulation of the parameters of a piece-wise continuous functions as a dynamic system, and a recurrent neural network implementation for capturing the dynamics. Using these insights, we design and implement UNIPoint, a novel neural point process model, using recurrent neural networks to parameterise sums of basis function upon each event. Evaluations on synthetic and real world datasets show that this simpler representation performs better than Hawkes process variants and more complex neural network-based approaches. We expect this result will provide a practical basis for selecting and tuning models, as well as furthering theoretical work on representational complexity and learnability.

In the realm of deep learning, the Fisher information matrix (FIM) gives novel insights and useful tools to characterize the loss landscape, perform second-order optimization, and build geometric learning theories. The exact FIM is either unavailable in closed form or too expensive to compute. In practice, it is almost always estimated based on empirical samples. We investigate two such estimators based on two equivalent representations of the FIM --- both unbiased and consistent. Their estimation quality is naturally gauged by their variance given in closed form. We analyze how the parametric structure of a deep neural network can affect the variance. The meaning of this variance measure and its upper bounds are then discussed in the context of deep learning.