The rapid growth of earth observation systems calls for a scalable approach to interpolate remote-sensing observations. These methods in principle, should acquire more information about the observed field as data grows. Gaussian processes (GPs) are candidate model choices for interpolation. However, due to their poor scalability, they usually rely on inducing points for inference, which restricts their expressivity. Moreover, commonly imposed assumptions such as stationarity prevents them from capturing complex patterns in the data. While deep GPs can overcome this issue, training and making inference with them are difficult, again requiring crude approximations via inducing points. In this work, we instead approach the problem through Bayesian deep learning, where spatiotemporal fields are represented by deep neural networks, whose layers share the inductive bias of stationary GPs on the plane/sphere via random feature expansions. This allows one to (1) capture high frequency patterns in the data, and (2) use mini-batched gradient descent for large scale training. We experiment on various remote sensing data at local/global scales, showing that our approach produce competitive or superior results to existing methods, with well-calibrated uncertainties.

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in developing machine learning models on graphs to account for topological inductive biases. In particular, recent attention has been given to Gaussian processes on such structures since they can additionally account for uncertainty. However, graphs are limited to modelling relations between two vertices. In this paper, we go beyond this dyadic setting and consider polyadic relations that include interactions between vertices, edges and one of their generalisations, known as cells. Specifically, we propose Gaussian processes on cellular complexes, a generalisation of graphs that captures interactions between these higher-order cells. One of our key contributions is the derivation of two novel kernels, one that generalises the graph Matérn kernel and one that additionally mixes information of different cell types.

Data assimilation (DA) methods use priors arising from differential equations to robustly interpolate and extrapolate data. Popular techniques such as ensemble methods that handle high-dimensional, nonlinear PDE priors focus mostly on state estimation, however can have difficulty learning the parameters accurately. On the other hand, machine learning based approaches can naturally learn the state and parameters, but their applicability can be limited, or produce uncertainties that are hard to interpret. Inspired by the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) method in spatial statistics, we propose an alternative approach to DA based on iteratively linearising the dynamical model. This produces a Gaussian Markov random field at each iteration, enabling one to use INLA to infer the state and parameters. Our approach can be used for arbitrary nonlinear systems, while retaining interpretability, and is furthermore demonstrated to outperform existing methods on the DA task. By providing a more nuanced approach to handling nonlinear PDE priors, our methodology offers improved accuracy and robustness in predictions, especially where data sparsity is prevalent.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are typically criticised for their unfavourable scaling in both computational and memory requirements. For large datasets, sparse GPs reduce these demands by conditioning on a small set of inducing variables designed to summarise the data. In practice however, for large datasets requiring many inducing variables, such as low-lengthscale spatial data, even sparse GPs can become computationally expensive, limited by the number of inducing variables one can use. In this work, we propose a new class of inter-domain variational GP, constructed by projecting a GP onto a set of compactly supported B-spline basis functions. The key benefit of our approach is that the compact support of the B-spline basis functions admits the use of sparse linear algebra to significantly speed up matrix operations and drastically reduce the memory footprint. This allows us to very efficiently model fast-varying spatial phenomena with tens of thousands of inducing variables, where previous approaches failed.

Gaussian processes are machine learning models capable of learning unknown functions in a way that represents uncertainty, thereby facilitating construction of optimal decision-making systems. Motivated by a desire to deploy Gaussian processes in novel areas of science, a rapidly-growing line of research has focused on constructively extending these models to handle non-Euclidean domains, including Riemannian manifolds, such as spheres and tori. We propose techniques that generalize this class to model vector fields on Riemannian manifolds, which are important in a number of application areas in the physical sciences. To do so, we present a general recipe for constructing gauge independent kernels, which induce Gaussian vector fields, i.e. vector-valued Gaussian processes coherent withgeometry, from scalar-valued Riemannian kernels. We extend standard Gaussian process training methods, such as variational inference, to this setting. This enables vector-valued Gaussian processes on Riemannian manifolds to be trained using standard methods and makes them accessible to machine learning practitioners.