Control and decision making of water supply systems influence economic, political, and social variables on several time horizons. Particularly in Central Asia, the international nature of water resources, large irrigation requirements, and depletion of surface water and aquifers in the arid region call for a systems-level framework to analyze disruptive scenarios and determine a schedule of risk countermeasures. This paper evaluates risk as the influence of scenarios on system order. Through scenario-based multi-criteria decision analysis, system initiatives are prioritized in the baseline and disruptive scenarios. The methods are applied to a case of water policies in Turkmenistan where twelve water policies are ordered according to six system criteria including social, situational, and economic factors. The system order is updated across each of seven disruptive scenarios relating to political, economic, technological, and societal trends and forecasts.

Decision making for resilient infrastructure systems requires methods for assessing risk across political, social, economic, and physical domains. Traditional risk assessments for physical systems often consider only historical data in prioritization and decision making. This paper presents a systems and risk analysis framework to identify resource threats to energy system development priorities. The methods are demonstrated for the case of alternative energy investments in Turkmenistan. Twenty-seven sub-basins are ordered according to three satellite-observed metrics representing energy generation potential. Disruptions to the baseline system order, induced by 30-year forward-looking projection scenarios, are used to identify the most and least resilient sub-basins in the context of energy system development.

Iraq's infrastructure's water and environmental security are influenced by its semi-arid to arid climate, marked by erratic variations, including minimal precipitation, increasing air temperatures, and compromised water quality resulting from reduced inflow in the tributary. The transportation sector plays a vital role in improving economic conditions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. However, critical transportation systems, essential for the movement of goods, information, and people, are jeopardized by water scarcity and climate change. This study develops a sensitivity analysis of the priorities among transportation nodes subject to their disruption by water scarcity and other emergent and future stressors. The stressors include social, technological, regulatory, workforce, market, climate, and hydrologic criteria. This analysis describes the nodes of highest importance and quantifies which scenarios are the most and least disruptive to the system order of nodes. This study includes thirteen order criteria, forty-three nodes, and seven risk scenarios. The paper should interest the system owners and operators who are concerned with monitoring their enterprises' resilience and environmental security.