Abstract Passes are by far football’s (soccer) most frequent event, yet surprisingly little meaningful research has been devoted to quantify them. With the increase in availability of so-called positional data, describing the positioning of players and ball at every moment of the game, our work aims to determine the difficulty of every pass by calculating its success probability based on its surrounding circumstances. As most experts will agree, not all passes are of equal difficulty, however, most traditional metrics count them as such. With our work we can quantify how well players can execute passes, assess their risk profile, and even compute completion probabilities for hypothetical passes by combining physical and machine learning models. Our model uses the first 0.4 seconds of a ball trajectory and the movement vectors of all players to predict the intended target of a pass with an accuracy of $$93.0\%$$ 93.0 % for successful and $$72.0\%$$ 72.0 % for unsuccessful passes much higher than any previously published work. Our extreme gradient boosting model can then quantify the likelihood of a successful pass completion towards the identified target with an area under the curve (AUC) of $$93.4\%$$ 93.4 % . Finally, we discuss several potential applications, like player scouting or evaluating pass decisions.

Abstract Detecting counterpressing is an important task for any professional match-analyst in football (soccer), but is being done exclusively manually by observing video footage. The purpose of this paper is not only to automatically identify this strategy, but also to derive metrics that support coaches with the analysis of transition situations. Additionally, we want to infer objective influence factors for its success and assess the validity of peer-created rules of thumb established in by practitioners. Based on a combination of positional and event data we detect counterpressing situations as a supervised machine learning task. Together, with professional match-analysis experts we discussed and consolidated a consistent definition, extracted 134 features and manually labeled more than 20, 000 defensive transition situations from 97 professional football matches. The extreme gradient boosting model—with an area under the curve of $$87.4\%$$ 87.4 % on the labeled test data—enabled us to judge how quickly teams can win the ball back with counterpressing strategies, how many shots they create or allow immediately afterwards and to determine what the most important success drivers are. We applied this automatic detection on all matches from six full seasons of the German Bundesliga and quantified the defensive and offensive consequences when applying counterpressing for each team. Automating the task saves analysts a tremendous amount of time, standardizes the otherwise subjective task, and allows to identify trends within larger data-sets. We present an effective way of how the detection and the lessons learned from this investigation are integrated effectively into common match-analysis processes.

A possible objective in analyzing trajectories of multiple simultaneously moving objects, such as football players during a game, is to extract and understand the general patterns of coordinated movement in different classes of situations as they develop. For achieving this objective, we propose an approach that includes a combination of query techniques for flexible selection of episodes of situation development, a method for dynamic aggregation of data from selected groups of episodes, and a data structure for representing the aggregates that enables their exploration and use in further analysis. The aggregation, which is meant to abstract general movement patterns, involves construction of new time-homomorphic reference systems owing to iterative application of aggregation operators to a sequence of data selections. As similar patterns may occur at different spatial locations, we also propose constructing new spatial reference systems for aligning and matching movements irrespective of their absolute locations. The approach was tested in application to tracking data from two Bundesliga games of the 2018/2019 season. It enabled detection of interesting and meaningful general patterns of team behaviors in three classes of situations defined by football experts. The experts found the approach and the underlying concepts worth implementing in tools for football analysts.