Conditional diffusion models provide a natural framework for probabilistic prediction of dynamical systems and have been successfully applied to fluid dynamics and weather prediction. However, in many settings, the available information at a given time represents only a small fraction of what is needed to predict future states, either due to measurement uncertainty or because only a small fraction of the state can be observed. This is true for example in solar physics, where we can observe the Sun’s surface and atmosphere, but its evolution is driven by internal processes for which we lack direct measurements. In this paper, we tackle the probabilistic prediction of partially observable, long-memory dynamical systems, with applications to solar dynamics and the evolution of active regions. We show that standard inference schemes, such as autoregressive rollouts, fail to capture long-range dependencies in the data, largely because they do not integrate past information effectively. To overcome this, we propose a multiscale inference scheme for diffusion models, tailored to physical processes. Our method generates trajectories that are temporally fine-grained near the present and coarser as we move farther away, which enables capturing long-range temporal dependencies without increasing computational cost. When integrated into a diffusion model, we show that our inference scheme significantly reduces the bias of the predicted distributions and improves rollout stability.

While foundation models have shown promise across a variety of fields, astronomy lacks a unified framework for joint modeling across its highly diverse data modalities. In this paper, we present AION-1, the first large-scale multimodal foundation family of models for astronomy. AION-1 enables arbitrary transformations between heterogeneous data types using a two-stage architecture: modality-specific tokenization followed by transformer-based masked modeling of cross-modal token sequences. Trained on over 200M astronomical objects, AION-1 demonstrates strong performance across regression, classification, generation, and object retrieval tasks. Beyond astronomy, AION-1 provides a scalable blueprint for multimodal scientific foundation models that can seamlessly integrate heterogeneous combinations of real-world observations. Our model release is entirely open source, including the dataset, training script, and weights.

The steep computational cost of diffusion models at inference hinders their use as fast physics emulators. In the context of image and video generation, this computational drawback has been addressed by generating in the latent space of an autoencoder instead of the pixel space. In this work, we investigate whether a similar strategy can be effectively applied to the emulation of dynamical systems and at what cost. We find that the accuracy of latent-space emulation is surprisingly robust to a wide range of compression rates (up to 1000x). We also show that diffusion-based emulators are consistently more accurate than non-generative counterparts and compensate for uncertainty in their predictions with greater diversity. Finally, we cover practical design choices, spanning from architectures to optimizers, that we found critical to train latent-space emulators.

In recent years, denoising problems have become intertwined with the development of deep generative models. In particular, diffusion models are trained like denoisers, and the distribution they model coincide with denoising priors in the Bayesian picture. However, denoising through diffusion-based posterior sampling requires the noise level and covariance to be known, preventing blind denoising. We overcome this limitation by introducing Gibbs Diffusion (GDiff), a general methodology addressing posterior sampling of both the signal and the noise parameters. Assuming arbitrary parametric Gaussian noise, we develop a Gibbs algorithm that alternates sampling steps from a conditional diffusion model trained to map the signal prior to the class of noise distributions, and a Monte Carlo sampler to infer the noise parameters. Our theoretical analysis highlights potential pitfalls, guides diagnostic usage, and quantifies errors in the Gibbs stationary distribution caused by the diffusion model. We showcase our method for 1) blind denoising of natural images involving colored noises with unknown amplitude and exponent, and 2) a cosmology problem, namely the analysis of cosmic microwave background data, where Bayesian inference of "noise" parameters means constraining models of the evolution of the Universe.

Training a modern machine learning architecture on a new task requires extensive learning-rate tuning, which comes at a high computational cost. Here we develop new Polyak-type adaptive learning rates that can be used on top of any momentum method, and require less tuning to perform well. We first develop MoMo, a **Mo**mentum **Mo**del based adaptive learning rate for SGD-M (stochastic gradient descent with momentum). MoMo uses momentum estimates of the batch losses and gradients sampled at each iteration to build a model of the loss function. Our model also makes use of any known lower bound of the loss function by using truncation, e.g. most losses are lower-bounded by zero. The models is then approximately minimized at each iteration to compute the next step. We show how MoMo can be used in combination with any momentum-based method, and showcase this by developing MoMo-Adam - which is Adam with our new model-based adaptive learning rate. We show that MoMo attains a $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{K})$ convergence rate for convex problems with interpolation, needing knowledge of no problem-specific quantities other than the optimal value. Additionally, for losses with unknown lower bounds, we develop on-the-fly estimates of a lower bound, that are incorporated in our model. We demonstrate that MoMo and MoMo-Adam improve over SGD-M and Adam in terms of robustness to hyperparameter tuning for training image classifiers on MNIST, CIFAR, and Imagenet, for recommender systems on the Criteo dataset, for a transformer model on the translation task IWSLT14, and for a diffusion model.

We introduce multiple physics pretraining (MPP), an autoregressive task-agnostic pretraining approach for physical surrogate modeling of spatiotemporal systems with transformers. In MPP, rather than training one model on a specific physical system, we train a backbone model to predict the dynamics of multiple heterogeneous physical systems simultaneously in order to learn features that are broadly useful across systems and facilitate transfer. In order to learn effectively in this setting, we introduce a shared embedding and normalization strategy that projects the fields of multiple systems into a shared embedding space. We validate the efficacy of our approach on both pretraining and downstream tasks over a broad fluid mechanics-oriented benchmark. We show that a single MPP-pretrained transformer is able to match or outperform task-specific baselines on all pretraining sub-tasks without the need for finetuning. For downstream tasks, we demonstrate that finetuning MPP-trained models results in more accurate predictions across multiple time-steps on systems with previously unseen physical components or higher dimensional systems compared to training from scratch or finetuning pretrained video foundation models. We open-source our code and model weights trained at multiple scales for reproducibility.

Machine learning based surrogate models offer researchers powerful tools for accelerating simulation-based workflows. However, as standard datasets in this space often cover small classes of physical behavior, it can be difficult to evaluate the efficacy of new approaches. To address this gap, we introduce the Well: a large-scale collection of datasets containing numerical simulations of a wide variety of spatiotemporal physical systems. The Well draws from domain experts and numerical software developers to provide 15TB of data across 16 datasets covering diverse domains such as biological systems, fluid dynamics, acoustic scattering, as well as magneto-hydrodynamic simulations of extra-galactic fluids or supernova explosions. These datasets can be used individually or as part of a broader benchmark suite. To facilitate usage of the Well, we provide a unified PyTorch interface for training and evaluating models. We demonstrate the function of this library by introducing example baselines that highlight the new challenges posed by the complex dynamics of the Well. The code and data is available at https://github.com/PolymathicAI/the_well.

Randomized sketches of a tensor product of $p$ vectors follow a tradeoff between statistical efficiency and computational acceleration. Commonly used approaches avoid computing the high-dimensional tensor product explicitly, resulting in a suboptimal dependence of $O(3^p)$ in the embedding dimension. We propose a simple Complex-to-Real (CtR) modification of well-known sketches that replaces real random projections by complex ones, incurring a lower $O(2^p)$ factor in the embedding dimension. The output of our sketches is real-valued, which renders their downstream use straightforward. In particular, we apply our sketches to $p$-fold self-tensored inputs corresponding to the feature maps of the polynomial kernel. We show that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance in terms of accuracy and speed compared to other randomized approximations from the literature.

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is a computationally efficient and theoretically grounded alternative to the Wasserstein distance. Yet, the literature on its statistical properties – or, more accurately, its generalization properties – with respect to the distribution of slices, beyond the uniform measure, is scarce. To bring new contributions to this line of research, we leverage the PAC-Bayesian theory and a central observation that SW may be interpreted as an average risk, the quantity PAC-Bayesian bounds have been designed to characterize. We provide three types of results: i) PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds that hold on what we refer as adaptive Sliced-Wasserstein distances, i.e. SW defined with respect to arbitrary distributions of slices (among which data-dependent distributions), ii) a principled procedure to learn the distribution of slices that yields maximally discriminative SW, by optimizing our theoretical bounds, and iii) empirical illustrations of our theoretical findings.

We propose a new defense mechanism against adversarial at-tacks inspired by an optical co-processor, providing robustness without compromising natural accuracy in both white-box and black-box settings. This hardware co-processor performs a nonlinear fixed random transformation, where the parameters are unknown and impossible to retrieve with sufficient precision for large enough dimensions. In the white-box setting, our defense works by obfuscating the parameters of the random projection. Unlike other defenses relying on obfuscated gradients, we find we are unable to build a re-liable backward differentiable approximation for obfuscated parameters. Moreover, while our model reaches a good natural accuracy with a hybrid backpropagation - synthetic gradient method, the same approach is suboptimal if employed to generate adversarial examples. Finally, our hybrid training method builds robust features against black-box and transfer attacks. We demonstrate our approach on a VGG-like architecture, placing the defense on top of the convolutional features, on CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100.

Beyond pure Von Neumann processing Scalability of AI / HPC models is limited by the Von Neumann bottleneck for accessing massive amounts of memory, driving up power consumption.

Exact computation of linear algebra operations is challenging or even impossible at extreme scale By leveraging randomization we can get approximate results at reduced computational cost Lighton OPU: The first commercially available photonic Co-Processor

Direct Feedback Alignment (DFA) is emerging as an efficient and biologically plausible alternative to backpropagation for training deep neural networks. Despite relying on random feedback weights for the backward pass, DFA successfully trains state-of-the-art models such as Transformers. On the other hand, it notoriously fails to train convolutional networks. An understanding of the inner workings of DFA to explain these diverging results remains elusive. Here, we propose a theory of feedback alignment algorithms. We first show that learning in shallow networks proceeds in two steps: an alignment phase, where the model adapts its weights to align the approximate gradient with the true gradient of the loss function, is followed by a memorisation phase, where the model focuses on fitting the data. This two-step process has a degeneracy breaking effect: out of all the low-loss solutions in the landscape, a net-work trained with DFA naturally converges to the solution which maximises gradient alignment. We also identify a key quantity underlying alignment in deep linear networks: the conditioning of the alignment matrices. The latter enables a detailed understanding of the impact of data structure on alignment, and suggests a simple explanation for the well-known failure of DFA to train convolutional neural networks. Numerical experiments on MNIST and CIFAR10 clearly demonstrate degeneracy breaking in deep non-linear networks and show that the align-then-memorize process occurs sequentially from the bottom layers of the network to the top.

Optical Processing Units (OPUs) -- low-power photonic chips dedicated to large scale random projections -- have been used in previous work to train deep neural networks using Direct Feedback Alignment (DFA), an effective alternative to backpropagation. Here, we demonstrate how to leverage the intrinsic noise of optical random projections to build a differentially private DFA mechanism, making OPUs a solution of choice to provide a \emph{private-by-design} training. We provide a theoretical analysis of our adaptive privacy mechanism, carefully measuring how the noise of optical random projections propagates in the process and gives rise to provable Differential Privacy. Finally, we conduct experiments demonstrating the ability of our learning procedure to achieve solid end-task performance.

Approximating kernel functions with random features (RFs) has been a successful application of random projections for nonparametric estimation. However, performing random projections presents computational challenges for large-scale problems. Recently, a new optical hardware called Optical Processing Unit (OPU) has been developed for fast and energy-efficient computation of large-scale RFs in the analog domain. More specifically, the OPU performs the multiplication of input vectors by a large random matrix with complexvalued i.i.d. Gaussian entries, followed by the application of an element-wise squared absolute value operation - this last nonlinearity being intrinsic to the sensing process. In this paper, we show that this operation results in a dot-product kernel that has connections to the polynomial kernel, and we extend this computation to arbitrary powers of the feature map. Experiments demonstrate that the OPU kernel and its RF approximation achieve competitive performance in applications using kernel ridge regression and transfer learning for image classification. Crucially, thanks to the use of the OPU, these results are obtained with time and energy savings.

Reservoir Computing is a class of simple yet efficient Recurrent Neural Networks where internal weights are fixed at random and only a linear output layer is trained. In the large size limit, such random neural networks have a deep connection with kernel methods. Our contributions are threefold: a) We rigorously establish the recurrent kernel limit of Reservoir Computing and prove its convergence. b) We test our models on chaotic time series prediction, a classic but challenging benchmark in Reservoir Computing, and show how the Recurrent Kernel is competitive and computationally efficient when the number of data points remains moderate. c) When the number of samples is too large, we leverage the success of structured Random Features for kernel approximation by introducing Structured Reservoir Computing. The two proposed methods, Recurrent Kernel and Structured Reservoir Computing, turn out to be much faster and more memory-efficient than conventional Reservoir Computing.