Discovering a unique causal structure is difficult due to both inherent identifiability issues, and the consequences of finite data. As such, uncertainty over causal structures, such as those obtained from a Bayesian posterior, are often necessary for downstream tasks. Finding an accurate approximation to this posterior is challenging, due to the large number of possible causal graphs, as well as the difficulty in the subproblem of finding posteriors over the functional relationships of the causal edges. Recent works have used Bayesian meta learning to view the problem of posterior estimation as a supervised learning task. Yet, these methods are limited as they cannot reliably sample from the posterior over causal structures and fail to encode key properties of the posterior, such as correlation between edges and permutation equivariance with respect to nodes. To address these limitations, we propose a Bayesian meta learning model that allows for sampling causal structures from the posterior and encodes these key properties. We compare our meta-Bayesian causal discovery against existing Bayesian causal discovery methods, demonstrating the advantages of directly learning a posterior over causal structure.

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of guarantees and poor performance in practice. Recent work has shown that, in the bivariate case, Bayesian model selection can greatly improve performance by exchanging restrictive modelling for more flexible assumptions, at the cost of a small probability of making an error. Our work shows that this approach is useful in the important multivariate case as well. We propose a scalable algorithm leveraging a continuous relaxation of the discrete model selection problem. Specifically, we employ the Causal Gaussian Process Conditional Density Estimator (CGP-CDE) as a Bayesian non-parametric model, using its hyperparameters to construct an adjacency matrix. This matrix is then optimised using the marginal likelihood and an acyclicity regulariser, giving the maximum a posteriori causal graph. We demonstrate the competitiveness of our approach, showing it is advantageous to perform multivariate causal discovery without infeasible assumptions using Bayesian model selection.

In scientific domains---from biology to the social sciences---many questions boil down to \textit{What effect will we observe if we intervene on a particular variable?} If the causal relationships (e.g.~a causal graph) are known, its possible to estimate the intervention distributions. In the absence of this domain knowledge, the causal structure must be discovered from the available observational data. However, observational data are often compatible with multiple causal graphs, making methods that commit to a single structure prone to overconfidence. A principled way to manage this structural uncertainty is via Bayesian inference, which averages over a posterior distribution on possible causal structures and functional mechanisms. Unfortunately, the number of causal structures grows super-exponentially with the number of nodes in the graph, making computations intractable. We propose to circumvent these challenges by using meta-learning to create an end-to-end model: the Model-Averaged Causal Estimation Transformer Neural Process (MACE-TNP). The model is trained to predict the Bayesian model-averaged interventional posterior distribution, and its end-to-end nature bypasses the need for expensive calculations. Empirically, we demonstrate that MACE-TNP outperforms strong Bayesian baselines. Our work established meta-learning as a flexible and scalable paradigm for approximating complex Bayesian causal inference, that can be scaled to increasingly challenging settings in the future.

Much of the causal discovery literature prioritises guaranteeing the identifiability of causal direction in statistical models. For structures within a Markov equivalence class, this requires strong assumptions which may not hold in real-world datasets, ultimately limiting the usability of these methods. Building on previous attempts, we show how to incorporate causal assumptions within the Bayesian framework. Identifying causal direction then becomes a Bayesian model selection problem. This enables us to construct models with realistic assumptions, and consequently allows for the differentiation between Markov equivalent causal structures. We analyse why Bayesian model selection works in situations where methods based on maximum likelihood fail. To demonstrate our approach, we construct a Bayesian non-parametric model that can flexibly model the joint distribution. We then outperform previous methods on a wide range of benchmark datasets with varying data generating assumptions.

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based on the assumption that all variables have been jointly measured in a single dataset. In many cases this assumption fails. Previous approaches to overcoming this shortcoming devised algorithms that returned all joint causal structures consistent with the conditional independence information contained in each individual dataset. But, as conditional independence tests only determine causal structure up to Markov equivalence, the number of consistent joint structures returned by these approaches can be quite large. The last decade has seen the development of elegant algorithms for discovering causal relations beyond conditional independence, which can distinguish among Markov equivalent structures. In this work we adapt and extend these so-called bivariate causal discovery algorithms to the problem of learning consistent causal structures from multiple datasets with overlapping variables belonging to the same generating process, providing a sound and complete algorithm that outperforms previous approaches on synthetic and real data.