Practical Bayes filters often assume the state distribution of each time step to be Gaussian for computational tractability, resulting in the so-called Gaussian filters. When facing nonlinear systems, Gaussian filters such as extended Kalman filter (EKF) or unscented Kalman filter (UKF) typically rely on certain linearization techniques, which can introduce large estimation errors. To address this issue, this paper reconstructs the prediction and update steps of Gaussian filtering as solutions to two distinct optimization problems, whose optimal conditions are found to have analytical forms from Stein's lemma. It is observed that the stationary point for the prediction step requires calculating the first two moments of the prior distribution, which is equivalent to that step in existing moment-matching filters. In the update step, instead of linearizing the model to approximate the stationary points, we propose an iterative approach to directly minimize the update step's objective to avoid linearization errors. For the purpose of performing the steepest descent on the Gaussian manifold, we derive its natural gradient that leverages Fisher information matrix to adjust the gradient direction, accounting for the curvature of the parameter space. Combining this update step with moment matching in the prediction step, we introduce a new iterative filter for nonlinear systems called Natural Gradient Gaussian Approximation filter, or NANO filter for short. We prove that NANO filter locally converges to the optimal Gaussian approximation at each time step. Furthermore, the estimation error is proven exponentially bounded for nearly linear measurement equation and low noise levels through constructing a supermartingale-like property across consecutive time steps. Real-world experiments demonstrate that, compared to popular Gaussian filters such as EKF, UKF, iterated EKF, and posterior linearization filter, NANO filter reduces the average root mean square error by approximately 45% while maintaining a comparable computational burden.

Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, $\textbf{LLM-Filter}$, which leverages large language models (LLMs) for state estimation by embedding noisy observations with text prototypes. In a number of experiments for classical dynamical systems, we find that first, state estimation can significantly benefit from the knowledge embedded in pre-trained LLMs. By achieving proper modality alignment with the frozen LLM, LLM-Filter outperforms the state-of-the-art learning-based approaches. Second, we carefully design the prompt structure, System-as-Prompt (SaP), incorporating task instructions that enable LLMs to understand tasks and adapt to specific systems. Guided by these prompts, LLM-Filter exhibits exceptional generalization, capable of performing filtering tasks accurately in changed or even unseen environments. We further observe a scaling-law behavior in LLM-Filter, where accuracy improves with larger model sizes and longer training times. These findings make LLM-Filter a promising foundation model of filtering.

Integral reinforcement learning (IntRL) demands the precise computation of the utility function's integral at its policy evaluation (PEV) stage. This is achieved through quadrature rules, which are weighted sums of utility functions evaluated from state samples obtained in discrete time. Our research reveals a critical yet underexplored phenomenon: the choice of the computational method -- in this case, the quadrature rule -- can significantly impact control performance. This impact is traced back to the fact that computational errors introduced in the PEV stage can affect the policy iteration's convergence behavior, which in turn affects the learned controller. To elucidate how computation impacts control, we draw a parallel between IntRL's policy iteration and Newton's method applied to the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. In this light, computational error in PEV manifests as an extra error term in each iteration of Newton's method, with its upper bound proportional to the computational error. Further, we demonstrate that when the utility function resides in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS), the optimal quadrature is achievable by employing Bayesian quadrature with the RKHS-inducing kernel function. We prove that the local convergence rates for IntRL using the trapezoidal rule and Bayesian quadrature with a Matérn kernel to be $O(N^{-2})$ and $O(N^{-b})$, where $N$ is the number of evenly-spaced samples and $b$ is the Matérn kernel's smoothness parameter. These theoretical findings are finally validated by two canonical control tasks.