Probabilistic circuits are a unifying representation of functions as computation graphs of weighted sums and products. Their primary application is in probabilistic modeling, where circuits with non-negative weights (monotone circuits) can be used to represent and learn density/mass functions, with tractable marginal inference. Recently, it was proposed to instead represent densities as the square of the circuit function (squared circuits); this allows the use of negative weights while retaining tractability, and can be exponentially more expressive efficient than monotone circuits. Unfortunately, we show the reverse also holds, meaning that monotone circuits and squared circuits are incomparable in general. This raises the question of whether we can reconcile, and indeed improve upon the two modeling approaches. We answer in the positive by proposing Inception PCs, a novel type of circuit that naturally encompasses both monotone circuits and squared circuits as special cases, and employs complex parameters. Empirically, we validate that Inception PCs can outperform both monotone and squared circuits on a range of tabular and image datasets.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a unifying representation for probabilistic models that support tractable inference. Numerous applications of PCs like controllable text generation depend on the ability to efficiently multiply two circuits. Existing multiplication algorithms require that the circuits respect the same structure, i.e. variable scopes decomposes according to the same vtree. In this work, we propose and study the task of restructuring structured(-decomposable) PCs, that is, transforming a structured PC such that it conforms to a target vtree. We propose a generic approach for this problem and show that it leads to novel polynomial-time algorithms for multiplying circuits respecting different vtrees, as well as a practical depth-reduction algorithm that preserves structured decomposibility. Our work opens up new avenues for tractable PC inference, suggesting the possibility of training with less restrictive PC structures while enabling efficient inference by changing their structures at inference time.

As large language models (LMs) advance, there is an increasing need to control their outputs to align with human values (e.g., detoxification) or desired attributes (e.g., personalization, topic). However, autoregressive models focus on next-token predictions and struggle with global properties that require looking ahead. Existing solutions either post-train LMs for each new attribute—expensive and inflexible—or approximate the Expected Attribute Probability (EAP) of future sequences by sampling or training, which is slow and unreliable for rare attributes. We introduce **TRACE** (Tractable Probabilistic Reasoning for Adaptable Controllable gEneration), a novel framework that efficiently computes EAP and adapts to new attributes through tractable *probabilistic* reasoning and lightweight *control*. TRACE distills a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) from an LM and pairs it with a small classifier to estimate attribute probabilities, enabling exact EAP computation over the HMM’s predicted futures. This EAP is then used to reweigh the LM’s next-token probabilities for globally compliant continuations. Empirically, TRACE achieves state-of-the-art detoxification results with only 20% decoding overhead, yields 76 low-resource personalized LMs within seconds, and seamlessly extends to composite attributes.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable representations of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. Recent advancements have improved the scalability of PCs either by leveraging their sparse properties or through the use of tensorized operations for better hardware utilization. However, no existing method fully exploits both aspects simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a novel sparse and structured parameterization for the sum blocks in PCs. By replacing dense matrices with sparse Monarch matrices, we significantly reduce the memory and computation costs, enabling unprecedented scaling of PCs. From a theory perspective, our construction arises naturally from circuit multiplication; from a practical perspective, compared to previous efforts on scaling up tractable probabilistic models, our approach not only achieves state-of-the-art generative modeling performance on challenging benchmarks like Text8, LM1B and ImageNet, but also demonstrates superior scaling behavior, achieving the same performance with substantially less compute as measured by the number of floating-point operations (FLOPs) during training.

Most methods for neural network verification focus on bounding the image, i.e., set of outputs for a given input set. This can be used to, for example, check the robustness of neural network predictions to bounded perturbations of an input. However, verifying properties concerning the preimage, i.e., the set of inputs satisfying an output property, requires abstractions in the input space. We present a general framework for preimage abstraction that produces under- and over-approximations of any polyhedral output set. Our framework employs cheap parameterised linear relaxations of the neural network, together with an anytime refinement procedure that iteratively partitions the input region by splitting on input features and neurons. The effectiveness of our approach relies on carefully designed heuristics and optimisation objectives to achieve rapid improvements in the approximation volume. We evaluate our method on a range of tasks, demonstrating significant improvement in efficiency and scalability to high-input-dimensional image classification tasks compared to state-of-the-art techniques. Further, we showcase the application to quantitative verification and robustness analysis, presenting a sound and complete algorithm for the former and providing sound quantitative results for the latter.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are typically shipped with tokenizers that deterministically encode text into so-called canonical token sequences, to which the LLMs assign probability values.One common assumption is that the probability of a piece of text is the probability of its canonical token sequence.However, the tokenization of a string is not unique: e.g., the Llama2 tokenizer encodes Tokens as [Tok,ens], but [Tok,en,s] also represents the same text.In this paper, we study noncanonical tokenizations.We prove that, given a string, it is computationally hard to find the most likely tokenization for an autoregressive LLM, as well as to compute the marginal probability over all possible tokenizations.We then show how the marginal is, in most cases, indistinguishable from the canonical probability.Surprisingly, we then empirically demonstrate the existence of a significant amount of signal hidden within tokenization space.Notably, by simply aggregating the probabilities of noncanonical tokenizations, we achieve improvements across a range of LLM evaluation benchmarks for a variety of architectures, including transformers and state space models.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Circuits based on sum-product structure have become a ubiquitous representation to compactly encode knowledge, from Boolean functions to probability distributions. By imposing constraints on the structure of such circuits, certain inference queries become tractable, such as model counting and most probable configuration. Recent works have explored analyzing probabilistic and causal inference queries as compositions of basic operators to derive tractability conditions. In this paper, we take an algebraic perspective for compositional inference, and show that a large class of queries—including marginal MAP, probabilistic answer set programming inference, and causal backdoor adjustment—correspond to a combination of basic operators over semirings: aggregation, product, and elementwise mapping. Using this framework, we uncover simple and general sufficient conditions for tractable composition of these operators, in terms of circuit properties (e.g., marginal determinism, compatibility) and conditions on the elementwise mappings. Applying our analysis, we derive novel tractability conditions for many such compositional queries. Our results unify tractability conditions for existing problems on circuits, while providing a blueprint for analysing novel compositional inference queries.

Abstract Neural network verification mainly focuses on local robustness properties, which can be checked by bounding the image (set of outputs) of a given input set. However, often it is important to know whether a given property holds globally for the input domain, and if not then for what proportion of the input the property is true. To analyze such properties requires computing preimage abstractions of neural networks. In this work, we propose an efficient anytime algorithm for generating symbolic under-approximations of the preimage of any polyhedron output set for neural networks. Our algorithm combines a novel technique for cheaply computing polytope preimage under-approximations using linear relaxation, with a carefully-designed refinement procedure that iteratively partitions the input region into subregions using input and ReLU splitting in order to improve the approximation. Empirically, we validate the efficacy of our method across a range of domains, including a high-dimensional MNIST classification task beyond the reach of existing preimage computation methods. Finally, as use cases, we showcase the application to quantitative verification and robustness analysis. We present a sound and complete algorithm for the former, which exploits our disjoint union of polytopes representation to provide formal guarantees. For the latter, we find that our method can provide useful quantitative information even when standard verifiers cannot verify a robustness property.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models, which admit efficient inference routines depending on their structural properties. In this paper, we introduce md-vtrees, a novel structural formulation of (marginal) determinism in structured decomposable PCs, which generalizes previously proposed classes such as probabilistic sentential decision diagrams. Crucially, we show how md-vtrees can be used to derive tractability conditions and efficient algorithms for advanced inference queries expressed as arbitrary compositions of basic probabilistic operations, such as marginalization, multiplication and reciprocals, in a sound and generalizable manner. In particular, we derive the first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries such as backdoor adjustment on PCs. As a practical instantiation of the framework, we propose MDNets, a novel PC architecture using md-vtrees, and empirically demonstrate their application to causal inference.

Bayesian structure learning allows one to capture uncertainty over the causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) responsible for generating given data. In this work, we present Tractable Uncertainty for STructure learning (TRUST), a framework for approximate posterior inference that relies on probabilistic circuits as a representation of our posterior belief. In contrast to sample-based posterior approximations, our representation can capture a much richer space of DAGs, while being able to tractably answer a range of useful inference queries. We empirically demonstrate how probabilistic circuits can be used to as an augmented representation for structure learning methods, leading to improvement in both the quality of inferred structures and posterior uncertainty. Experimental results also demonstrate the improved representational capacity of TRUST, outperforming competing methods on conditional query answering.

In many domains, worst-case guarantees on the performance (e.g. prediction accuracy) of a decision function subject to distributional shifts and uncertainty about the environment are crucial. In this work we develop a method to quantify the robustness of decision functions with respect to credal Bayesian networks, formal parametric models of the environment where uncertainty is expressed through credal sets on the parameters. In particular, we address the maximum marginal probability (MARmax) problem, that is, determining the greatest probability of an event (such as misclassification) obtainable for parameters in the credal set. We develop a method to faithfully transfer the problem into a constrained optimization problem on a probabilistic circuit. By performing a simple constraint relaxation, we show how to obtain a guaranteed upper bound on MARmax in linear time in the size of the circuit. We further theoretically characterize this constraint relaxation in terms of the original Bayesian network structure, which yields insight into the tightness of the bound. We implement the method and provide experimental evidence that the upper bound is often near tight and demonstrates improved scalability compared to other methods.

Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical) changes in the data-generating process, whether due to natural reasons or by the action of an adversary. We consider causal Bayesian networks and formally define the interventional robustness problem, a novel model-based notion of robustness for decision functions that measures worst-case performance with respect to a set of interventions that denote changes to parameters and/or causal influences. By relying on a tractable representation of Bayesian networks as arithmetic circuits, we provide efficient algorithms for computing guaranteed upper and lower bounds on the interventional robustness probabilities. Experimental results demonstrate that the methods yield useful and interpretable bounds for a range of practical networks, paving the way towards provably causally robust decision-making systems.

Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being generated by an explicit adversary, while the poor train–test generalization of adversarial metrics can limit their usage to simple problems. Motivated by this, we develop a probabilistic robust risk framework, the statistically robust risk (SRR), which considers pointwise corruption distributions, as opposed to worst-case adversaries. The SRR provides a distinct and complementary measure of robust performance, compared to natural and adversarial risk. We show that the SRR admits estimation and training schemes which are as simple and efficient as for the natural risk: these simply require noising the inputs, but with a principled derivation for exactly how and why this should be done. Furthermore, we demonstrate both theoretically and experimentally that it can provide superior generalization performance compared with adversarial risks, enabling application to high-dimensional datasets.