Non-linear mixed-effects models are a powerful tool for studying heterogeneous populations in various fields, including biology, medicine, economics, and engineering. Here, the aim is to find a distribution over the parameters that describe the whole population using a model that can generate simulations for an individual of that population. However, fitting these distributions to data is computationally challenging if the description of individuals is complex and the population is large. To address this issue, we propose a novel machine learning-based approach: We exploit neural density estimation based on conditional normalizing flows to approximate individual-specific posterior distributions in an amortized fashion, thereby allowing for efficient inference of population parameters. Applying this approach to problems from cell biology and pharmacology, we demonstrate its unseen flexibility and scalability to large data sets compared to established methods.

Amortized simulation-based neural posterior estimation provides a novel machine learning based approach for solving parameter estimation problems. It has been shown to be computationally efficient and able to handle complex models and data sets. Yet, the available approach cannot handle the in experimental studies ubiquitous case of missing data, and might provide incorrect posterior estimates. In this work, we discuss various ways of encoding missing data and integrate them into the training and inference process. We implement the approaches in the BayesFlow methodology, an amortized estimation framework based on invertible neural networks, and evaluate their performance on multiple test problems. We find that an approach in which the data vector is augmented with binary indicators of presence or absence of values performs the most robustly. Indeed, it improved the performance also for the simpler problem of data sets with variable length. Accordingly, we demonstrate that amortized simulation-based inference approaches are applicable even with missing data, and we provide a guideline for their handling, which is relevant for a broad spectrum of applications.

MOTIVATION: Biological tissues are dynamic and highly organized. Multi-scale models are helpful tools to analyse and understand the processes determining tissue dynamics. These models usually depend on parameters that need to be inferred from experimental data to achieve a quantitative understanding, to predict the response to perturbations, and to evaluate competing hypotheses. However, even advanced inference approaches such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are difficult to apply due to the computational complexity of the simulation of multi-scale models. Thus, there is a need for a scalable pipeline for modeling, simulating, and parameterizing multi-scale models of multi-cellular processes. RESULTS: Here, we present FitMultiCell, a computationally efficient and user-friendly open-source pipeline that can handle the full workflow of modeling, simulating, and parameterizing for multi-scale models of multi-cellular processes. The pipeline is modular and integrates the modeling and simulation tool Morpheus and the statistical inference tool pyABC. The easy integration of high-performance infrastructure allows to scale to computationally expensive problems. The introduction of a novel standard for the formulation of parameter inference problems for multi-scale models additionally ensures reproducibility and reusability. By applying the pipeline to multiple biological problems, we demonstrate its broad applicability, which will benefit in particular image-based systems biology. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FitMultiCell is available open-source at https://gitlab.com/fitmulticell/fit.

SUMMARY: Mechanistic models are important tools to describe and understand biological processes. However, they typically rely on unknown parameters, the estimation of which can be challenging for large and complex systems. pyPESTO is a modular framework for systematic parameter estimation, with scalable algorithms for optimization and uncertainty quantification. While tailored to ordinary differential equation problems, pyPESTO is broadly applicable to black-box parameter estimation problems. Besides own implementations, it provides a unified interface to various popular simulation and inference methods. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: pyPESTO is implemented in Python, open-source under a 3-Clause BSD license. Code and documentation are available on GitHub (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pypesto).

Ordinary differential equation models facilitate the understanding of cellular signal transduction and other biological processes. However, for large and comprehensive models, the computational cost of simulating or calibrating can be limiting. AMICI is a modular toolbox implemented in C++/Python/MATLAB that provides efficient simulation and sensitivity analysis routines tailored for scalable, gradient-based parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. AMICI is published under the permissive BSD-3-Clause license with source code publicly available on https://github.com/AMICI-dev/AMICI. Citeable releases are archived on Zenodo.

Reproducibility and reusability of the results of data-based modeling studies are essential. Yet, there has been-so far-no broadly supported format for the specification of parameter estimation problems in systems biology. Here, we introduce PEtab, a format which facilitates the specification of parameter estimation problems using Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) models and a set of tab-separated value files describing the observation model and experimental data as well as parameters to be estimated. We already implemented PEtab support into eight well-established model simulation and parameter estimation toolboxes with hundreds of users in total. We provide a Python library for validation and modification of a PEtab problem and currently 20 example parameter estimation problems based on recent studies.

MOTIVATION: Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an increasingly popular method for likelihood-free parameter inference in systems biology and other fields of research, as it allows analyzing complex stochastic models. However, the introduced approximation error is often not clear. It has been shown that ABC actually gives exact inference under the implicit assumption of a measurement noise model. Noise being common in biological systems, it is intriguing to exploit this insight. But this is difficult in practice, as ABC is in general highly computationally demanding. Thus, the question we want to answer here is how to efficiently account for measurement noise in ABC. RESULTS: We illustrate exemplarily how ABC yields erroneous parameter estimates when neglecting measurement noise. Then, we discuss practical ways of correctly including the measurement noise in the analysis. We present an efficient adaptive sequential importance sampling-based algorithm applicable to various model types and noise models. We test and compare it on several models, including ordinary and stochastic differential equations, Markov jump processes and stochastically interacting agents, and noise models including normal, Laplace and Poisson noise. We conclude that the proposed algorithm could improve the accuracy of parameter estimates for a broad spectrum of applications. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The developed algorithms are made publicly available as part of the open-source python toolbox pyABC (https://github.com/icb-dcm/pyabc). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

MOTIVATION: Mechanistic models of biochemical reaction networks facilitate the quantitative understanding of biological processes and the integration of heterogeneous datasets. However, some biological processes require the consideration of comprehensive reaction networks and therefore large-scale models. Parameter estimation for such models poses great challenges, in particular when the data are on a relative scale. RESULTS: Here, we propose a novel hierarchical approach combining (i) the efficient analytic evaluation of optimal scaling, offset and error model parameters with (ii) the scalable evaluation of objective function gradients using adjoint sensitivity analysis. We evaluate the properties of the methods by parameterizing a pan-cancer ordinary differential equation model (>1000 state variables, >4000 parameters) using relative protein, phosphoprotein and viability measurements. The hierarchical formulation improves optimizer performance considerably. Furthermore, we show that this approach allows estimating error model parameters with negligible computational overhead when no experimental estimates are available, providing an unbiased way to weight heterogeneous data. Overall, our hierarchical formulation is applicable to a wide range of models, and allows for the efficient parameterization of large-scale models based on heterogeneous relative measurements. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Supplementary code and data are available online at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3254429 and http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3254441. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.