The recovery of coarsely sampled trajectories considering the road network topology characteristics is a crucial task for many downstream applications in intelligent transportation systems. Existing approaches in this domain primarily focus on extracting spatio-temporal correlations for the observed trajectory points but neglect the critical role of road network topology characteristics in making the recovery results more accurate and realistic. In addition, too many road segments in cities undermine the model inference performance. To address these challenges, we propose a novel Map-informed Adaptive Spatio-Temporal Autoencoder, which follows an encoder-decoder architecture for trajectory recovery. Specifically, we utilize a pre-trained attributed network embedding module to incorporate the road segment characteristics into the input data to make it easier for the model to extract the spatio-temporal dependencies from coarse trajectories. Furthermore, we construct a novel adaptive mask inference module that contains a distance-based mask matrix and a learnable adaptive mask matrix to assist the model in making segment inferences by weighting each candidate segment adaptively in the recovery process. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, we conduct a series of comprehensive case studies on two representative real-world trajectory datasets. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model consistently outperforms state-of-the-art approaches.

Generating trajectory data is among promising solutions to addressing privacy concerns, collection costs, and proprietary restrictions usually associated with human mobility analyses. However, existing trajectory generation methods are still in their infancy due to the inherent diversity and unpredictability of human activities, grappling with issues such as fidelity, flexibility, and generalizability. To overcome these obstacles, we propose ControlTraj, a Controllable Trajectory generation framework with the topology-constrained diffusion model. Distinct from prior approaches, ControlTraj utilizes a diffusion model to generate high-fidelity trajectories while integrating the structural constraints of road network topology to guide the geographical outcomes. Specifically, we develop a novel road segment autoencoder to extract fine-grained road segment embedding. The encoded features, along with trip attributes, are subsequently merged into the proposed geographic denoising UNet architecture, named GeoUNet, to synthesize geographic trajectories from white noise. Through experimentation across three real-world data settings, ControlTraj demonstrates its ability to produce human-directed, high-fidelity trajectory generation with adaptability to unexplored geographical contexts.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a dominant approach for developing traffic forecasting models. These models are typically trained to minimize error on averaged test cases and produce a single-point prediction, such as a scalar value for traffic speed or travel time. However, single-point predictions fail to account for prediction uncertainty that is critical for many transportation management scenarios, such as determining the best-or worst-case arrival time. We present, a generic framework to enhance the capability of an arbitrary DNN model for uncertainty modeling. requires little human involvement and does not change the base DNN architecture during deployment. Instead, it automatically learns a standard quantile function during the DNN model training to produce a prediction interval for the single-point prediction. The prediction interval defines a range where the true value of the traffic prediction is likely to fall. Furthermore, develops an adaptive scheme that dynamically adjusts the prediction interval based on the location and prediction window of the test input. We evaluated by applying it to five representative DNN models for traffic forecasting across seven public datasets. We then compared against six uncertainty quantification methods. Compared to the baseline uncertainty modeling techniques, with base DNN architectures delivers consistently better and more robust performance than the existing ones on the reported datasets.

Urban mobility analysis has been extensively studied in the past decade using a vast amount of GPS trajectory data, which reveals hidden patterns in movement and human activity within urban landscapes. Despite its significant value, the availability of such datasets often faces limitations due to privacy concerns, proprietary barriers, and quality inconsistencies. To address these challenges, this paper presents a synthetic trajectory dataset with high fidelity, offering a general solution to these data accessibility issues. Specifically, the proposed dataset adopts a diffusion model as its synthesizer, with the primary aim of accurately emulating the spatial-temporal behavior of the original trajectory data. These synthesized data can retain the geo-distribution and statistical properties characteristic of real-world datasets. Through rigorous analysis and case studies, we validate the high similarity and utility between the proposed synthetic trajectory dataset and real-world counterparts. Such validation underscores the practicality of synthetic datasets for urban mobility analysis and advocates for its wider acceptance within the research community. Finally, we publicly release the trajectory synthesizer and datasets, aiming to enhance the quality and availability of synthetic trajectory datasets and encourage continued contributions to this rapidly evolving field. The dataset is released for public online availability https://github.com/Applied-Machine-Learning-Lab/SynMob.

Pervasive integration of GPS-enabled devices and data acquisition technologies has led to an exponential increase in GPS trajectory data, fostering advancements in spatial-temporal data mining research. Nonetheless, GPS trajectories contain personal geolocation information, rendering serious privacy concerns when working with raw data. A promising approach to address this issue is trajectory generation, which involves replacing original data with generated, privacy-free alternatives. Despite the potential of trajectory generation, the complex nature of human behavior and its inherent stochastic characteristics pose challenges in generating high-quality trajectories. In this work, we propose a spatial-temporal diffusion probabilistic model for trajectory generation (DiffTraj). This model effectively combines the generative abilities of diffusion models with the spatial-temporal features derived from real trajectories. The core idea is to reconstruct and synthesize geographic trajectories from white noise through a reverse trajectory denoising process. Furthermore, we propose a Trajectory UNet (Traj-UNet) deep neural network to embed conditional information and accurately estimate noise levels during the reverse process. Experiments on two real-world datasets show that DiffTraj can be intuitively applied to generate high-fidelity trajectories while retaining the original distributions. Moreover, the generated results can support downstream trajectory analysis tasks and significantly outperform other methods in terms of geo-distribution evaluations.

Traffic speed prediction based on real-world traffic data is a classical problem in intelligent transportation systems (ITS). Most existing traffic speed prediction models are proposed based on the hypothesis that traffic data are complete or have rare missing values. However, such data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to various human and natural factors. Although this problem can be solved by first estimating the missing values with an imputation model and then applying a prediction model, the former potentially breaks critical latent features and further leads to the error accumulation issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a graph-based spatio-temporal autoencoder that follows an encoder-decoder structure for spatio-temporal traffic speed prediction with missing values. Specifically, we regard the imputation and prediction as two parallel tasks and train them sequentially to eliminate the negative impact of imputation on raw data for prediction and accelerate the model training process. Furthermore, we utilize graph convolutional layers with a self-adaptive adjacency matrix for spatial dependencies modeling and apply gated recurrent units for temporal learning. To evaluate the proposed model, we conduct comprehensive case studies on two real-world traffic datasets with two different missing patterns and a wide and practical missing rate range from 20% to 80%. Experimental results demonstrate that the model consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art traffic prediction with missing values methods and achieves steady performance in the investigated missing scenarios and prediction horizons.

Estimated time of arrival (ETA) is one of the critical services offered by navigation and hailing providers. The majority of existing solutions approach ETA as a regression problem and leverage GPS trajectories for estimation. However, the travel time fluctuates greatly between different trips, making simple regression methods skewed. Additionally, these methods are incapable of conducting estimation in practice because the trajectories of future trips are unknown. To jointly tackle these problems, we propose a novel Categorical approximate method to Estimate Time of Arrival (CatETA). Specifically, we formulate the ETA problem as a classification problem and label it with the average time of each category. To eliminate bias in categorical labeling, we approximate travel time using the weighted average of different classes in the testing stage. Then, we design a network structure that extracts the spatio-temporal features of link sequences and integrates a set of global information. Furthermore, we merge link sequences according to network topology and graph embedding to alleviate the computational burden associated with large-scale link networks. Comprehensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that CatETA considerably improves the estimation performance and significantly reduces computational effort.

Along with urbanization and the deployment of GPS sensors in vehicles and mobile phones, massive amounts of trajectory data have been generated for city areas. The analysis of these data has substantially contributed to research and advancements of travel time estimation. However, existing work focuses on estimating travel time inside a particular area, and cross-area travel time estimation has privacy security challenges due to data exchange issues among areas. Meanwhile, the majority of methods estimate a deterministic travel time for a given trajectory, which does not account for complex traffic situations and user requirements. To address these problems, we propose a cross-area travel time uncertainty estimation algorithm for estimating the uncertainty of travel times while preserving privacy among different areas. Specifically, we design a comprehensive cross-area privacy-preserving solution that trains a tailor-made neural network travel time estimator in each area by local data, and incorporates federated learning for training. Furthermore, we employ Bayesian deep learning principles and adopt Monte-Carlo dropout to quantify the uncertainty associated with travel time. To evaluate the proposed approach, we conduct a series of comprehensive case studies with two real-world trajectory datasets. Extensive results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach compared to baselines in the context of the cross-area setting.