We study the problem of monitoring machine learning models under gradual distribution shifts, where circumstances change slowly over time, often leading to unnoticed yet significant declines in accuracy. To address this, we propose Incremental Uncertainty-aware Performance Monitoring (IUPM), a novel label-free method that estimates performance changes by modeling gradual shifts using optimal transport. In addition, IUPM quantifies the uncertainty in the performance prediction and introduces an active labeling procedure to restore a reliable estimate under a limited labeling budget. Our experiments show that IUPM outperforms existing performance estimation baselines in various gradual shift scenarios and that its uncertainty awareness guides label acquisition more effectively compared to other strategies.

To ensure the trustworthiness and interpretability of AI systems, it is essential to align machine learning models with human domain knowledge. This can be a challenging and time-consuming endeavor that requires close communication between data scientists and domain experts. Recent leaps in the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) can help alleviate this burden. In this paper, we propose a Mixture of Rule Experts guided by a Large Language Model (MoRE-LLM) which combines a data-driven black-box model with knowledge extracted from an LLM to enable domain knowledge-aligned and transparent predictions. While the introduced Mixture of Rule Experts (MoRE) steers the discovery of local rule-based surrogates during training and their utilization for the classification task, the LLM is responsible for enhancing the domain knowledge alignment of the rules by correcting and contextualizing them. Importantly, our method does not rely on access to the LLM during test time and ensures interpretability while not being prone to LLM-based confabulations. We evaluate our method on several tabular data sets and compare its performance with interpretable and non-interpretable baselines. Besides performance, we evaluate our grey-box method with respect to the utilization of interpretable rules. In addition to our quantitative evaluation, we shed light on how the LLM can provide additional context to strengthen the comprehensibility and trustworthiness of the model's reasoning process.

Monitoring and maintaining machine learning models are among the most critical challenges in translating recent advances in the field into real-world applications. However, current monitoring methods lack the capability of provide actionable insights answering the question of why the performance of a particular model really degraded. In this work, we propose a novel approach to explain the behavior of a black-box model under feature shifts by attributing an estimated performance change to interpretable input characteristics. We refer to our method that combines concepts from Optimal Transport and Shapley Values as Explanatory Performance Estimation (XPE). We analyze the underlying assumptions and demonstrate the superiority of our approach over several baselines on different data sets across various data modalities such as images, audio, and tabular data. We also indicate how the generated results can lead to valuable insights, enabling explanatory model monitoring by revealing potential root causes for model deterioration and guiding toward actionable countermeasures.

Most latent feature methods for recommender systems learn to encode user preferences and item characteristics based on past user-item interactions. While such approaches work well for standalone items (e.g., books, movies), they are not as well suited for dealing with composite systems. For example, in the context of industrial purchasing systems for engineering solutions, items can no longer be considered standalone. Thus, latent representation needs to encode the functionality and technical features of the engineering solutions that result from combining the individual components. To capture these dependencies, expressive and context-aware recommender systems are required. In this paper, we propose NECTR , a novel recommender system based on two components: a tensor factorization model and an autoencoder-like neural network. In the tensor factorization component, context information of the items is structured in a multi-relational knowledge base encoded as a tensor and latent representations of items are extracted via tensor factorization. Simultaneously, an autoencoder-like component captures the non-linear interactions among configured items. We couple both components such that our model can be trained end-to-end. To demonstrate the real-world applicability of NECTR , we conduct extensive experiments on an industrial dataset concerned with automation solutions. Based on the results, we find that NECTR outperforms state-of-the-art methods by approximately 50% with respect to a set of standard performance metrics.

Abstract Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. This paper investigates how classical inference and learning tasks known from the graphical model community can be tackled for probabilistic logic programs. Several such tasks, such as computing the marginals, given evidence and learning from (partial) interpretations, have not really been addressed for probabilistic logic programs before. The first contribution of this paper is a suite of efficient algorithms for various inference tasks. It is based on the conversion of the program and the queries and evidence to a weighted Boolean formula. This allows us to reduce inference tasks to well-studied tasks, such as weighted model counting, which can be solved using state-of-the-art methods known from the graphical model and knowledge compilation literature. The second contribution is an algorithm for parameter estimation in the learning from interpretations setting. The algorithm employs expectation-maximization, and is built on top of the developed inference algorithms. The proposed approach is experimentally evaluated. The results show that the inference algorithms improve upon the state of the art in probabilistic logic programming, and that it is indeed possible to learn the parameters of a probabilistic logic program from interpretations.

Abstract Today, there exist many different probabilistic programming languages as well as more inference mechanisms for these languages. Still, most logic programming-based languages use backward reasoning based on Selective Linear Definite resolution for inference. While these methods are typically computationally efficient, they often can neither handle infinite and/or continuous distributions nor evidence. To overcome these limitations, we introduce distributional clauses, a variation and extension of Sato's distribution semantics. We also contribute a novel approximate inference method that integrates forward reasoning with importance sampling, a well-known technique for probabilistic inference. In order to achieve efficiency, we integrate two logic programming techniques to direct forward sampling. Magic sets are used to focus on relevant parts of the program, while the integration of backward reasoning allows one to identify and avoid regions of the sample space that are inconsistent with the evidence.

We introduce DTProbLog, a decision-theoretic extension of Prolog and its probabilistic variant ProbLog. DTProbLog is a simple but expressive probabilistic programming language that allows the modeling of a wide variety of domains, such as viral marketing. In DTProbLog, the utility of a strategy (a particular choice of actions) is defined as the expected reward for its execution in the presence of probabilistic effects. The key contribution of this paper is the introduction of exact, as well as approximate, solvers to compute the optimal strategy for a DTProbLog program and the decision problem it represents, by making use of binary and algebraic decision diagrams. We also report on experimental results that show the effectiveness and the practical usefulness of the approach.