We measure the out-of-domain uncertainty in the prediction of Neural Networks using a statistical notion called "Lens Depth'' (LD) combined with Fermat Distance, which is able to capture precisely the "depth'' of a point with respect to a distribution in feature space, without any distributional assumption. Our method also has no trainable parameter. The method is applied directly in the feature space at test time and does not intervene in training process. As such, it does not impact the performance of the original model. The proposed method gives excellent qualitative results on toy datasets and can give competitive or better uncertainty estimation on standard deep learning datasets compared to strong baseline methods.

Gradient descent during the learning process of a neural network can be subject to many instabilities. The spectral density of the Jacobian is a key component for analyzing stability. Following the works of Pennington et al., such Jacobians are modeled using free multiplicative convolutions from Free Probability Theory (FPT).We present a reliable and very fast method for computing the associated spectral densities, for given architecture and initialization. This method has a controlled and proven convergence. Our technique is based on an homotopy method: it is an adaptative Newton-Raphson scheme which chains basins of attraction. We find contiguous lilypad-like basins and step from one to the next, heading towards the objective.In order to demonstrate the relevance of our method we show that the relevant FPT metrics computed before training are highly correlated to final test losses – up to 85%. We also give evidence that a very desirable feature for neural networks is the hyperbolicity of their Jacobian at initialization, while remaining at the edge of chaos.