Forecasting time series data is an integral component for management, planning and decision making. Following the Big Data trend, large amounts of time series data are available from many heterogeneous data sources in more and more applications domains. The highly dynamic and often fluctuating character of these domains in combination with the logistic problems of collecting such data from a variety of sources, imposes new challenges to forecasting. Traditional approaches heavily rely on extensive and complete historical data to build time series models and are thus no longer applicable if time series are short or, even more important, intermittent. In addition, large numbers of time series have to be forecasted on different aggregation levels with preferably low latency, while forecast accuracy should remain high. This is almost impossible, when keeping the traditional focus on creating one forecast model for each individual time series. In this paper we tackle these challenges by presenting a novel forecasting approach called cross-sectional forecasting. This method is especially designed for Big Data sets with a multitude of time series. Our approach breaks with existing concepts by creating only one model for a whole set of time series and requiring only a fraction of the available data to provide accurate forecasts. By utilizing available data from all time series of a data set, missing values can be compensated and accurate forecasting results can be calculated quickly on arbitrary aggregation levels.

Forecasts are important to decision-making and risk assessment in many domains. Since current database systems do not provide integrated support for forecasting, it is usually done outside the database system by specially trained experts using forecast models. However, integrating model-based forecasting as a first-class citizen inside a DBMS speeds up the forecasting process by avoiding exporting the data and by applying database-related optimizations like reusing created forecast models. It especially allows subsequent processing of forecast results inside the database. In this demo, we present our prototype F2DB based on PostgreSQL, which allows for transparent processing of forecast queries. Our system automatically takes care of model maintenance when the underlying dataset changes. In addition, we offer optimizations to save maintenance costs and increase accuracy by using derivation schemes for multidimensional data. Our approach reduces the required expert knowledge by enabling arbitrary users to apply forecasting in a declarative way.

Time series forecasting is challenging as sophisticated forecast models are computationally expensive to build. Recent research has addressed the integration of forecasting inside a DBMS. One main benefit is that models can be created once and then repeatedly used to answer forecast queries. Often forecast queries are submitted on higher aggregation levels, e. g., forecasts of sales over all locations. To answer such a forecast query, we have two possibilities. First, we can aggregate all base time series (sales in Austria, sales in Belgium...) and create only one model for the aggregate time series. Second, we can create models for all base time series and aggregate the base forecast values. The second possibility might lead to a higher accuracy but it is usually too expensive due to a high number of base time series. However, we actually do not need all base models to achieve a high accuracy, a sample of base models is enough. With this approach, we still achieve a better accuracy than an aggregate model, very similar to using all models, but we need less models to create and maintain in the database. We further improve this approach if new actual values of the base time series arrive at different points in time. With each new actual value we can refine the aggregate forecast and eventually converge towards the real actual value. Our experimental evaluation using several real-world data sets, shows a high accuracy of our approaches and a fast convergence towards the optimal value with increasing sample sizes and increasing number of actual values respectively.

Forecasts are important to decision-making and risk assessment in many domains. There has been recent interest in integrating forecast queries inside a DBMS. Answering a forecast query requires the creation of forecast models. Creating a forecast model is an expensive process and may require several scans over the base data as well as expensive operations to estimate model parameters. However, if forecast queries are issued repeatedly, answer times can be reduced significantly if forecast models are reused. Due to the possibly high number of forecast queries, existing models need to be found quickly. Therefore, we propose a model index that efficiently stores forecast models and allows for the efficient reuse of existing ones. Our experiments illustrate that the model index shows a negligible overhead for update transactions, but it yields significant improvements during query execution.

The topic of managing uncertain data has been explored in many ways. Different methodologies for data storage and query processing have been proposed. As the availability of management systems grows, the research on analytics of uncertain data is gaining in importance. Similar to the challenges faced in the field of data management, algorithms for uncertain data mining also have a high performance degradation compared to their certain algorithms. To overcome the problem of performance degradation, the MCDB approach was developed for uncertain data management based on the possible world scenario. As this methodology shows significant performance and scalability enhancement, we adopt this method for the field of mining on uncertain data. In this paper, we introduce a clustering methodology for uncertain data and illustrate current issues with this approach within the field of clustering uncertain data.

Quality control using scalar quality measures is standard practice in manufacturing. However, there are also quality measures that are determined at a large number of positions on a product, since the spatial distribution is important. We denote such a mapping of local coordinates on the product to values of a measure as a measurement map. In this paper, we examine how measurement maps can be clustered according to a novel notion of similarity - mapscape similarity - that considers the overall course of the measure on the map. We present a class of synopses called global slope change that uses the profile of the measure along several lines from a reference point to different points on the borders to represent a measurement map. We conduct an evaluation of global slope change using a real-world data set from manufacturing and demonstrate its superiority over other synopses.