A fundamental computational task in probabilistic programming is to infer a program’s output (posterior) distribution from a given initial (prior) distribution. This problem is challenging, especially for expressive languages that feature loops or unbounded recursion. While most of the existing literature focuses on statistical approximation, in this paper we address the problem of mathematically exact inference. To achieve this for programs with loops, we rely on a relatively underexplored type of probabilistic loop invariant, which is linked to a loop’s so-called occupation measure . The occupation measure associates program states with their expected number of visits, given the initial distribution. Based on this, we derive the notion of an occupation invariant . Such invariants are essentially dual to probabilistic martingales, the predominant technique for formal probabilistic loop analysis in the literature. A key feature of occupation invariants is that they can take the initial distribution into account and often yield a proof of positive almost sure termination as a by-product. Finally, we present an automatic, template-based invariant synthesis approach for occupation invariants by encoding them as generating functions . The approach is implemented and evaluated on a set of benchmarks.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for inferring posterior distributions encoded by probabilistic programs featuring possibly unbounded loops . Our method is built on a denotational semantics represented by probability generating functions , which resolves semantic intricacies induced by intertwining discrete probabilistic loops with conditioning (for encoding posterior observations). We implement our method in a tool called Prodigy; it augments existing computer algebra systems with the theory of generating functions for the (semi-)automatic inference and quantitative verification of conditioned probabilistic programs. Experimental results show that Prodigy can handle various infinite-state loopy programs and exhibits comparable performance to state-of-the-art exact inference tools over loop-free benchmarks.

Abstract We study discrete probabilistic programs with potentially unbounded looping behaviors over an infinite state space. We present, to the best of our knowledge,the first decidability result for the problem of determining whether such a program generates exactly a specified distribution over its outputs(provided the program terminates almost-surely). The class of distributions that can be specified in our formalism consists of standard distributions (geometric, uniform, etc.) and finite convolutions thereof. Our method relies on representing these (possibly infinite-support) distributions asprobability generating functionswhich admit effective arithmetic operations. We have automated our techniques in a tool called $$\textsc {Prodigy}$$ PRODIGY , which supports automatic invariance checking, compositional reasoning of nested loops, and efficient queries to the output distribution, as demonstrated by experiments.