The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by sequential variant-specific waves shaped by viral, individual human and population factors. SARS-CoV-2 variants are defined by their unique combinations of mutations and there has been a clear adaptation to more efficient human infection since the emergence of this new human coronavirus in late 2019. Here, we use machine learning models to identify shared signatures, i.e., common underlying mutational processes and link these to the subset of mutations that define the variants of concern (VOCs). First, we examined the global SARS-CoV-2 genomes and associated metadata to determine how viral properties and public health measures have influenced the magnitude of waves, as measured by the number of infection cases, in different geographic locations using regression models. This analysis showed that, as expected, both public health measures and virus properties were associated with the waves of regional SARS-CoV-2 reported infection numbers and this impact varies geographically. We attribute this to intrinsic differences such as vaccine coverage, testing and sequencing capacity and the effectiveness of government stringency. To assess underlying evolutionary change, we used non-negative matrix factorisation and observed three distinct mutational signatures, unique in their substitution patterns and exposures from the SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Signatures 1, 2 and 3 were biased to C→T, T→C/A→G and G→T point mutations. We hypothesise assignments of these mutational signatures to the host antiviral molecules APOBEC, ADAR and ROS respectively. We observe a shift amidst the pandemic in relative mutational signature activity from predominantly Signature 1 changes to an increasingly high proportion of changes consistent with Signature 2. This could represent changes in how the virus and the host immune response interact and indicates how SARS-CoV-2 may continue to generate variation in the future. Linkage of the detected mutational signatures to the VOC-defining amino acids substitutions indicates the majority of SARS-CoV-2's evolutionary capacity is likely to be associated with the action of host antiviral molecules rather than virus replication errors.

SUMMARY: Here, we present an automated pipeline for Download Of NCBI Entries (DONE) and continuous updating of a local sequence database based on user-specified queries. The database can be created with either protein or nucleotide sequences containing all entries or complete genomes only. The pipeline can automatically clean the database by removing entries with matches to a database of user-specified sequence contaminants. The default contamination entries include sequences from the UniVec database of plasmids, marker genes and sequencing adapters from NCBI, an E.coli genome, rRNA sequences, vectors and satellite sequences. Furthermore, duplicates are removed and the database is automatically screened for sequences from green fluorescent protein, luciferase and antibiotic resistance genes that might be present in some GenBank viral entries, and could lead to false positives in virus identification. For utilizing the database, we present a useful opportunity for dealing with possible human contamination. We show the applicability of DONE by downloading a virus database comprising 37 virus families. We observed an average increase of 16 776 new entries downloaded per month for the 37 families. In addition, we demonstrate the utility of a custom database compared to a standard reference database for classifying both simulated and real sequence data. AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION: The DONE pipeline for downloading and cleaning is deposited in a publicly available repository (https://bitbucket.org/genomicepidemiology/done/src/master/). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.