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Martin Nikoltchev

dblp:271/8458 · DBLP profile ↗
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1ranked-venue papers
0as first author
0since 2021 · last 2020
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 1

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Interdisciplinary, comprehensive, and emerging computing
1 paper
Medical and health informatics · 100%
Artificial intelligence
1 paper
Trustworthy machine learning · 100%

Topics — the 4 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Medical and health informatics › public health › public health informatics
COVID-19 forecasting
0.412020
Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting · NeurIPS 2020
Medical and health informatics
epidemic modeling
0.412020
Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting · NeurIPS 2020
Machine learning › Trustworthy machine learning › interpretability › explainable AI
explainable prediction
0.112020
Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting · NeurIPS 2020
Machine learning › Trustworthy machine learning
interpretability
0.112020
Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting · NeurIPS 2020

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

interpretable encoder · 0.9SEIR model · 0.9
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2020 Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting
abstract
We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling (e.g., SEIR) to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts compared to the alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights.
Sercan Ö. Arik, Chun-Liang Li, Jinsung Yoon, Rajarishi Sinha, Arkady Epshteyn, Long T. Le, Vikas Menon, Shashank Singh 0005, Leyou Zhang, Martin Nikoltchev, Yash Sonthalia, Hootan Nakhost, Elli Kanal, Tomas Pfister
NeurIPS10