Probability calibration transforms raw output of a classification model into empirically interpretable probability. When the model is purposed to detect rare event and only a small expensive data source has clean labels, it becomes extraordinarily challenging to obtain accurate probability calibration. Utilizing an additional large cheap data source is very helpful, however, such data sources oftentimes suffer from biased labels. To this end, we introduce an approximate expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to extract useful information from the large data sources. For a family of calibration methods based on the logistic likelihood, we derive closed-form updates and call the resulting iterative algorithm CalEM. We show that CalEM inherits convergence guarantees from the approximate EM algorithm. We test the proposed model in simulation and on the real marketing datasets, where it shows significant performance increases.

Self-supervised representation learning methods have achieved significant success in computer vision and natural language processing (NLP), where data samples exhibit explicit spatial or semantic dependencies. However, applying these methods to tabular data is challenging due to the less pronounced dependencies among data samples. In this paper, we address this limitation by introducing SwitchTab, a novel self-supervised method specifically designed to capture latent dependencies in tabular data. SwitchTab leverages an asymmetric encoder-decoder framework to decouple mutual and salient features among data pairs, resulting in more representative embeddings. These embeddings, in turn, contribute to better decision boundaries and lead to improved results in downstream tasks. To validate the effectiveness of SwitchTab, we conduct extensive experiments across various domains involving tabular data. The results showcase superior performance in end-to-end prediction tasks with fine-tuning. Moreover, we demonstrate that pre-trained salient embeddings can be utilized as plug-and-play features to enhance the performance of various traditional classification methods (e.g., Logistic Regression, XGBoost, etc.). Lastly, we highlight the capability of SwitchTab to create explainable representations through visualization of decoupled mutual and salient features in the latent space.

The rising rates of diabetes necessitate innovative methods for its management. Continuous glucose monitors (CGM) are small medical devices that measure blood glucose levels at regular intervals providing insights into daily patterns of glucose variation. Forecasting of glucose trajectories based on CGM data holds the potential to substantially improve diabetes management, by both refining artificial pancreas systems and enabling individuals to make adjustments based on predictions to maintain optimal glycemic range. Despite numerous methods proposed for CGM-based glucose trajectory prediction, these methods are typically evaluated on small, private datasets, impeding reproducibility, further research, and practical adoption. The absence of standardized prediction tasks and systematic comparisons between methods has led to uncoordinated research efforts, obstructing the identification of optimal tools for tackling specific challenges. As a result, only a limited number of prediction methods have been implemented in clinical practice. To address these challenges, we present a comprehensive resource that provides (1) a consolidated repository of curated publicly available CGM datasets to foster reproducibility and accessibility; (2) a standardized task list to unify research objectives and facilitate coordinated efforts; (3) a set of benchmark models with established baseline performance, enabling the research community to objectively gauge new methods' efficacy; and (4) a detailed analysis of performance-influencing factors for model development. We anticipate these resources to propel collaborative research endeavors in the critical domain of CGM-based glucose predictions. Our code is available online at github.com/IrinaStatsLab/GlucoBench.

Deep learning models achieve state-of-the art results in predicting blood glucose trajectories, with a wide range of architectures being proposed. However, the adaptation of such models in clinical practice is slow, largely due to the lack of uncertainty quantification of provided predictions. In this work, we propose to model the future glucose trajectory conditioned on the past as an infinite mixture of basis distributions (i.e., Gaussian, Laplace, etc.). This change allows us to learn the uncertainty and predict more accurately in the cases when the trajectory has a heterogeneous or multi-modal distribution. To estimate the parameters of the predictive distribution, we utilize the Transformer architecture. We empirically demonstrate the superiority of our method over existing state-of-the-art techniques both in terms of accuracy and uncertainty on the synthetic and benchmark glucose data sets.