Professional networks provide invaluable entree to opportunity through referrals and introductions. A rich literature shows they also serve to entrench and even exacerbate a status quo of privilege and disadvantage. Hiring platforms, equipped with the ability to nudge link formation, provide a tantalizing opening for beneficial structural change. We anticipate that key to this prospect will be the ability to estimate the likelihood of edge formation in an evolving graph. Outcome-indistinguishable prediction algorithms ensure that the modeled world is indistinguishable from the real world by a family of statistical tests. Omnipredictors ensure that predictions can be post-processed to yield loss minimization competitive with respect to a benchmark class of predictors for many losses simultaneously, with appropriate post-processing. We begin by observing that, by combining a slightly modified form of the online K29* algorithm of Vovk (2007) with basic facts from the theory of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces, one can derive simple and efficient online algorithms satisfying outcome indistinguishability and omniprediction, with guarantees that improve upon, or are complementary to, those currently known. This is of independent interest; for example, we obtain efficient outcome indistinguishability for some interesting infinite collections of tests, as well as for any bounded function — including those computable by deep (graph) neural networks. We apply these techniques to evolving graphs by designing efficient kernel functions that capture socially meaningful features of nodes and their neighborhoods. We obtain online outcome-indistinguishable omnipredictors for rich — possibly infinite — sets of distinguishers yielding, inter alia, multicalibrated predictions of edge formation with respect to pairs of demographic groups, and the ability to simultaneously optimize loss as measured by a variety of social welfare functions.

Researchers and practitioners often wish to measure treatment effects in settings where units interact via markets and recommendation systems. In these settings, units are affected by certain *shared states*, like prices, algorithmic recommendations or social signals. We formalize this structure, calling it shared-state interference, and argue that our formulation captures many relevant applied settings. Our key modeling assumption is that individuals' potential outcomes are independent conditional on the shared state. We then prove an extension of a double machine learning (DML) theorem providing conditions for achieving efficient inference under shared-state interference. We also instantiate our general theorem in several models of interest where it is possible to efficiently estimate the average direct effect (ADE) or global average treatment effect (GATE).

Professional networks --- the social networks among people in a given line of work --- can serve as a conduit for job prospects and other opportunities. Here we propose a model for the formation of such networks and the transfer of opportunities within them. In our theoretical model, individuals strategically connect with others to maximize the probability that they receive opportunities from them. We explore how professional networks balance connectivity, where connections facilitate opportunity transfers to those who did not get them from outside sources, and congestion, where some individuals receive too many opportunities from their connections and waste some of them.

We study the impact of content moderation policies in online communities. In our theoretical model, a platform chooses a content moderation policy and individuals choose whether or not to participate in the community according to the fraction of user content that aligns with their preferences. The effects of content moderation, at first blush, might seem obvious: platform speech is restricted. However, when user participation decisions are taken into account, its effects can be more subtle --- and counter-intuitive. For example, our model can straightforwardly demonstrate how moderation policies mayincrease participation and/ordiversify content available on the platform. In our analysis, we explore a rich set of interconnected phenomena related to content moderation in online communities. We first characterize the effectiveness of a natural class of moderation policies for creating and sustaining communities. Building on this, we explore how resource-limited or ideological platforms might set policies, how communities are affected by differing levels of personalization, and competition between platforms. Our model provides a vocabulary and mathematically tractable framework for analyzing platform decisions about content moderation.

Accurate bot detection is necessary for the safety and integrity of online platforms. It is also crucial for research on the influence of bots in elections, the spread of misinformation, and financial market manipulation. Platforms deploy infrastructure to flag or remove automated accounts, but their tools and data are not publicly available. Thus, the public must rely on third-party bot detection. These tools employ machine learning and often achieve near-perfect performance for classification on existing datasets, suggesting bot detection is accurate, reliable and fit for use in downstream applications. We provide evidence that this is not the case and show that high performance is attributable to limitations in dataset collection and labeling rather than sophistication of the tools. Specifically, we show that simple decision rules — shallow decision trees trained on a small number of features — achieve near-state-of-the-art performance on most available datasets and that bot detection datasets, even when combined together, do not generalize well to out-of-sample datasets. Our findings reveal that predictions are highly dependent on each dataset’s collection and labeling procedures rather than fundamental differences between bots and humans. These results have important implications for both transparency in sampling and labeling procedures and potential biases in research using existing bot detection tools for pre-processing.