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Arnaud Delaunoy

dblp:277/5958 · DBLP profile ↗
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2ranked-venue papers
1as first author
2since 2021 · last 2023
—ORCID · none

Domains — the database's venue-derived domains; a paper can count in several

Artificial intelligence and machine learning · 2 · 1 first-author · 2 since 2021

Expertise — from the expertise taxonomy: the topics of the expert's papers under the CCF categories. A weight counts papers with recency: 1 for a paper about the topic, 0.3 when the topic is its context, halved every five years.

Artificial intelligence
2 papers
Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning · 79% Trustworthy machine learning · 21%

Topics — the 3 heaviest of 4, each with the papers that count most for it

TopicWeightPapersLastEvidence papers
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference › approximate bayesian inference
simulation-based inference
1.222023
Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability · NeurIPS 2023
Towards Reliable Simulation-Based Inference with Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation · NeurIPS 2022
Machine learning › Probabilistic and Bayesian machine learning › statistical inference › bayesian inference
posterior calibration
0.712023
Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability · NeurIPS 2023
Machine learning › Trustworthy machine learning
uncertainty estimation
0.712023
Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability · NeurIPS 2023

Methods — techniques the papers use, named apart from their topics

differentiable calibration loss · 0.7backpropagation · 0.7amortized inference · 0.7neural ratio estimation · 0.6bayesian inference · 0.6
YearPublicationVenuePosition
2023 Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability
abstract
Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a simulator posing the need for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, the existing algorithms can yield overconfident posteriors (Hermans *et al.*, 2022) defeating the whole purpose of credibility if the uncertainty quantification is inaccurate. We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model in selected amortized SBI techniques. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation. The proposed method is not tied to any particular neural model and brings moderate computational overhead compared to the profits it introduces. It is directly applicable to existing computational pipelines allowing reliable black-box posterior inference. We empirically show on six benchmark problems that the proposed method achieves competitive or better results in terms of coverage and expected posterior density than the previously existing approaches.
Maciej Falkiewicz, Naoya Takeishi, Imahn Shekhzadeh, Antoine Wehenkel, Arnaud Delaunoy, Gilles Louppe, Alexandros Kalousis
NeurIPS5
2022 Towards Reliable Simulation-Based Inference with Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation
abstract
Modern approaches for simulation-based inference build upon deep learning surrogates to enable approximate Bayesian inference with computer simulators. In practice, the estimated posteriors' computational faithfulness is, however, rarely guaranteed. For example, Hermans et al., 2021 have shown that current simulation-based inference algorithms can produce posteriors that are overconfident, hence risking false inferences. In this work, we introduce Balanced Neural Ratio Estimation (BNRE), a variation of the NRE algorithm designed to produce posterior approximations that tend to be more conservative, hence improving their reliability, while sharing the same Bayes optimal solution. We achieve this by enforcing a balancing condition that increases the quantified uncertainty in low simulation budget regimes while still converging to the exact posterior as the budget increases. We provide theoretical arguments showing that BNRE tends to produce posterior surrogates that are more conservative than NRE's. We evaluate BNRE on a wide variety of tasks and show that it produces conservative posterior surrogates on all tested benchmarks and simulation budgets. Finally, we emphasize that BNRE is straightforward to implement over NRE and does not introduce any computational overhead.
Arnaud Delaunoy, Joeri Hermans, François Rozet, Antoine Wehenkel, Gilles Louppe
NeurIPS1