Weather forecasting is essential but remains computationally intensive and physically incomplete in traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods.Deep learning (DL) models offer efficiency and accuracy but often ignore physical laws, limiting interpretability and generalization.We propose PhyDL-NWP, a physicsguided deep learning framework that integrates physical equations with latent force parameterization into data-driven models.It predicts weather variables from arbitrary spatiotemporal coordinates, computes physical terms via automatic differentiation, and uses a physics-informed loss to align predictions with governing dynamics.PhyDL-NWP enables resolution-free downscaling by modeling weather as a continuous function and fine-tunes pre-trained models with minimal overhead, achieving up to 170× faster inference with only 55K parameters.Experiments show that PhyDL-NWP improves both forecasting performance and physical consistency.

Sequential recommendation systems are integral to discerning temporal user preferences. Yet, the task of learning from abbreviated user interaction sequences poses a notable challenge. Data augmentation has been identified as a potent strategy to enhance the informational richness of these sequences. Traditional augmentation techniques, such as item randomization, may disrupt the inherent temporal dynamics. Although recent advancements in reverse chronological pseudo-item generation have shown promise, they can introduce temporal discrepancies when assessed in a natural chronological context. In response, we introduce a sophisticated approach, Bidirectional temporal data Augmentation with pre-training (BARec). Our approach leverages bidirectional temporal augmentation and knowledge-enhanced fine-tuning to synthesize authentic pseudo-prior items thatretain user preferences and capture deeper item semantic correlations, thus boosting the model’s expressive power. Our comprehensive experimental analysis on five benchmark datasets confirms the superiority of BARec across both short and elongated sequence contexts. Moreover, theoretical examination and case study offer further insight into the model’s logical processes and interpretability.

Interpretable policy learning seeks to estimate intelligible decision policies from observed actions; however, existing models force a tradeoff between accuracy and interpretability, limiting data-driven interpretations of human decision-making processes. Fundamentally, existing approaches are burdened by this tradeoff because they represent the underlying decision process as a universal policy, when in fact human decisions are dynamic and can change drastically under different contexts. Thus, we develop Contextualized Policy Recovery (CPR), which re-frames the problem of modeling complex decision processes as a multi-task learning problem, where each context poses a unique task and complex decision policies can be constructed piece-wise from many simple context-specific policies. CPR models each context-specific policy as a linear map, and generates new policy models on-demand as contexts are updated with new observations. We provide two flavors of the CPR framework: one focusing on exact local interpretability, and one retaining full global interpretability. We assess CPR through studies on simulated and real data, achieving state-of-the-art performance on predicting antibiotic prescription in intensive care units ($+22$% AUROC vs. previous SOTA) and predicting MRI prescription for Alzheimer’s patients ($+7.7$% AUROC vs. previous SOTA). With this improvement, CPR closes the accuracy gap between interpretable and black-box methods, allowing high-resolution exploration and analysis of context-specific decision models.

In real-world scenarios such as traffic and energy management, we frequently encounter large volumes of time-series data characterized by missing values, noise, and irregular sampling patterns. While numerous imputation methods have been proposed, the majority tend to operate within a local horizon, which involves dividing long sequences into batches of fixed-length segments for model training. This local horizon often leads to the overlooking of global trends and periodic patterns. More importantly, most methods assume the observations are sampled at regular timestamps, and fail to handle complex irregular sampled time series in various applications. Additionally, most existing methods are learned in an offline manner. Thus, it is not suitable for applications with rapidly arriving streaming data. To address these challenges, we propose BayOTIDE: Bayesian Online Multivariate Time series Imputation with functional decomposition. Our method conceptualizes multivariate time series as the weighted combination of groups of low-rank temporal factors with different patterns. We employ a suite of Gaussian Processes (GPs),each with a unique kernel, as functional priors to model these factors. For computational efficiency, we further convert the GPs into a state-space prior by constructing an equivalent stochastic differential equation (SDE), and developing a scalable algorithm for online inference. The proposed method can not only handle imputation over arbitrary timestamps, but also offer uncertainty quantification and interpretability for the downstream application. We evaluate our method on both synthetic and real-world datasets. We release the code at https://github.com/xuangu-fang/BayOTIDE.

Diffusion models learn to denoise data and the trained denoiser is then used to generate new samples from the data distribution. In this paper, we revisit the diffusion sampling process and identify a fundamental cause of sample quality degradation: the denoiser is poorly estimated in regions that are far Outside Of the training Distribution (OOD), and the sampling process inevitably evaluates in these OOD regions. This can become problematic for all sampling methods, especially when we move to parallel sampling which requires us to initialize and update the entire sample trajectory of dynamics in parallel, leading to many OOD evaluations. To address this problem, we introduce a new self-supervised training objective that differentiates the levels of noise added to a sample, leading to improved OOD denoising performance. The approach is based on our observation that diffusion models implicitly define a log-likelihood ratio that distinguishes distributions with different amounts of noise, and this expression depends on denoiser performance outside the standard training distribution. We show by diverse experiments that the proposed contrastive diffusion training is effective for both sequential and parallel settings, and it improves the performance and speed of parallel samplers significantly. Code for our paper can be found at https://github.com/yunshuwu/ContrastiveDiffusionLoss

Sequential recommendation (SR) aims to model users' dynamic preferences from a series of interactions. A pivotal challenge in user modeling for SR lies in the inherent variability of user preferences. An effective SR model is expected to capture both the long-term and short-term preferences exhibited by users, wherein the former can offer a comprehensive understanding of stable interests that impact the latter. To more effectively capture such information, we incorporate locality inductive bias into the Transformer by amalgamating its global attention mechanism with a local convolutional filter, and adaptively ascertain the mixing importance on a personalized basis through layer-aware adaptive mixture units, termed as AdaMCT. Moreover, as users may repeatedly browse potential purchases, it is expected to consider multiple relevant items concurrently in long-/short-term preferences modeling. Given that softmax-based attention may promote unimodal activation, we propose the Squeeze-Excitation Attention (with sigmoid activation) into SR models to capture multiple pertinent items (keys) simultaneously. Extensive experiments on three widely employed benchmarks substantiate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach. Source code is available at https://github.com/juyongjiang/AdaMCT.

Partial differential equations (PDEs) that fit scientific data can represent physical laws with explainable mechanisms for various mathematically-oriented subjects, such as physics and finance. The data-driven discovery of PDEs from scientific data thrives as a new attempt to model complex phenomena in nature, but the effectiveness of current practice is typically limited by the scarcity of data and the complexity of phenomena. Especially, the discovery of PDEs with highly nonlinear coefficients from low-quality data remains largely under-addressed. To deal with this challenge, we propose a novel physics-guided learning method, which can not only encode observation knowledge such as initial and boundary conditions but also incorporate the basic physical principles and laws to guide the model optimization. We theoretically show that our proposed method strictly reduces the coefficient estimation error of existing baselines, and is also robust against noise. Extensive experiments show that the proposed method is more robust against data noise, and can reduce the estimation error by a large margin. Moreover, all the PDEs in the experiments are correctly discovered, and for the first time we are able to discover three-dimensional PDEs with highly nonlinear coefficients.

Graph Structure Learning (GSL) has recently garnered considerable attention due to its ability to optimize both the parameters of Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) and the computation graph structure simultaneously. Despite the proliferation of GSL methods developed in recent years, there is no standard experimental setting or fair comparison for performance evaluation, which creates a great obstacle to understanding the progress in this field. To fill this gap, we systematically analyze the performance of GSL in different scenarios and develop a comprehensive Graph Structure Learning Benchmark (GSLB) curated from 20 diverse graph datasets and 16 distinct GSL algorithms. Specifically, GSLB systematically investigates the characteristics of GSL in terms of three dimensions: effectiveness, robustness, and complexity. We comprehensively evaluate state-of-the-art GSL algorithms in node- and graph-level tasks, and analyze their performance in robust learning and model complexity. Further, to facilitate reproducible research, we have developed an easy-to-use library for training, evaluating, and visualizing different GSL methods. Empirical results of our extensive experiments demonstrate the ability of GSL and reveal its potential benefits on various downstream tasks, offering insights and opportunities for future research. The code of GSLB is available at: https://github.com/GSL-Benchmark/GSLB.

In financial credit scoring, loan applications may be approved or rejected. We can only observe default/non-default labels for approved samples but have no observations for rejected samples, which leads to missing-not-at-random selection bias. Machine learning models trained on such biased data are inevitably unreliable. In this work, we find that the default/non-default classification task and the rejection/approval classification task are highly correlated, according to both real-world data study and theoretical analysis. Consequently, the learning of default/non-default can benefit from rejection/approval. Accordingly, we for the first time propose to model the biased credit scoring data with Multi-Task Learning (MTL). Specifically, we propose a novel Reject-aware Multi-Task Network (RMT-Net), which learns the task weights that control the information sharing from the rejection/approval task to the default/non-default task by a gating network based on rejection probabilities. RMT-Net leverages the relation between the two tasks that the larger the rejection probability, the more the default/non-default task needs to learn from the rejection/approval task. Furthermore, we extend RMT-Net to RMT-Net++ for modeling scenarios with multiple rejection/approval strategies. Extensive experiments are conducted on several datasets, and strongly verifies the effectiveness of RMT-Net on both approved and rejected samples. In addition, RMT-Net++ further improves RMT-Net's performances.

Deep learning models have achieved promising disease prediction performance of the Electronic Health Records (EHR) of patients. However, most models developed under the I.I.D. hypothesis fail to consider the agnostic distribution shifts, diminishing the generalization ability of deep learning models to Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) data. In this setting, spurious statistical correlations between procedures and diagnoses that may change in different environments will be exploited, which can cause sub-optimal performances of deep learning models and spurious correlation between historical EHR and future diagnosis. To address this problem, we propose to use a causal representation learning method called Causal Healthcare Embedding (CHE). CHE aims at eliminating the spurious statistical relationship by removing the dependencies between diagnoses and procedures. We introduce the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC) to measure the degree of independence between the embedded diagnosis and procedure features. Based on causal view analyses, we perform the sample weighting technique to get rid of such spurious relationship for the stable learning of EHR across different environments. Moreover, our proposed CHE method can be used as a flexible plug-and-play module to enhance existing deep learning models on EHR. Extensive experiments on two public datasets and five state-of-the-art baselines unequivocally show that CHE can improve the prediction accuracy of deep learning models on out-of-distribution data by a large margin. In addition, the interpretability study shows that CHE could successfully leverage causal structures to reflect a more reasonable contribution of historical records for predictions.

Modeling sequential patterns from data is at the core of various time series forecasting tasks. Deep learning models have greatly outperformed many traditional models, but these black-box models generally lack explainability in prediction and decision making. To reveal the underlying trend with understandable mathematical expressions, scientists and economists tend to use partial differential equations (PDEs) to explain the highly nonlinear dynamics of sequential patterns. However, it usually requires domain expert knowledge and a series of simplified assumptions, which is not always practical and can deviate from the ever-changing world. Is it possible to learn the differential relations from data dynamically to explain the time-evolving dynamics? In this work, we propose an learning framework that can automatically obtain interpretable PDE models from sequential data. Particularly, this framework is comprised of learnable differential blocks, named P-blocks, which is proved to be able to approximate any time-evolving complex continuous functions in theory. Moreover, to capture the dynamics shift, this framework introduces a meta-learning controller to dynamically optimize the hyper-parameters of a hybrid PDE model. Extensive experiments on times series forecasting of financial, engineering, and health data show that our model can provide valuable interpretability and achieve comparable performance to state-of-the-art models. From empirical studies, we find that learning a few differential operators may capture the major trend of sequential dynamics without massive computational complexity.

The next location recommendation is at the core of various location-based applications. Current state-of-the-art models have attempted to solve spatial sparsity with hierarchical gridding and model temporal relation with explicit time intervals, while some vital questions remain unsolved. Non-adjacent locations and non-consecutive visits provide non-trivial correlations for understanding a user’s behavior but were rarely considered. To aggregate all relevant visits from user trajectory and recall the most plausible candidates from weighted representations, here we propose a Spatio-Temporal Attention Network (STAN) for location recommendation. STAN explicitly exploits relative spatiotemporal information of all the check-ins with self-attention layers along the trajectory. This improvement allows a point-to-point interaction between non-adjacent locations and non-consecutive check-ins with explicit spatio-temporal effect. STAN uses a bi-layer attention architecture that firstly aggregates spatiotemporal correlation within user trajectory and then recalls the target with consideration of personalized item frequency (PIF). By visualization, we show that STAN is in line with the above intuition. Experimental results unequivocally show that our model outperforms the existing state-of-the-art methods by 9-17%.