What property of the data distribution determines the excess risk of principal component analysis? In this paper, we provide a precise answer to this question. We establish a central limit theorem for the error of the principal subspace estimated by PCA, and derive the asymptotic distribution of its excess risk under the reconstruction loss. We obtain a non-asymptotic upper bound on the excess risk of PCA that recovers, in the large sample limit, our asymptotic characterization. Underlying our contributions is the following result: we prove that the negative block Rayleigh quotient, defined on the Grassmannian, is generalized self-concordant along geodesics emanating from its minimizer of maximum rotation less than $\pi/4$.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the \emph{exact} minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the lower bounds obtained by Lecue and Mendelson (2016) and Mendelson (2017) for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the procedure proposed by Lecue and Lerasle (2020), thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all $p$-th power error functions for $p \in (2, \infty)$. Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

Given a collection of feature maps indexed by a set $\mathcal{T}$, we study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) on regression problems with square loss over the union of the linear classes induced by these feature maps. This setup aims at capturing the simplest instance of feature learning, where the model is expected to jointly learn from the data an appropriate feature map and a linear predictor. We start by studying the asymptotic quantiles of the excess risk of sequences of empirical risk minimizers. Remarkably, we show that when the set $\mathcal{T}$ is not too large and when there is a unique optimal feature map, these quantiles coincide, up to a factor of two, with those of the excess risk of the oracle procedure, which knows a priori this optimal feature map and deterministically outputs an empirical risk minimizer from the associated optimal linear class. We complement this asymptotic result with a non-asymptotic analysis that quantifies the decaying effect of the global complexity of the set $\mathcal{T}$ on the excess risk of ERM, and relates it to the size of the sublevel sets of the suboptimality of the feature maps. As an application of our results, we characterize the performance of the best subset selection procedure in sparse linear regression under general assumptions.

We study the performance of empirical risk minimization on the $p$-norm linear regression problem for $p \in (1, \infty)$. We show that, in the realizable case, under no moment assumptions, and up to a distribution-dependent constant, $O(d)$ samples are enough to exactly recover the target. Otherwise, for $p \in [2, \infty)$, and under weak moment assumptions on the target and the covariates, we prove a high probability excess risk bound on the empirical risk minimizer whose leading term matches, up to a constant that depends only on $p$, the asymptotically exact rate. We extend this result to the case $p \in (1, 2)$ under mild assumptions that guarantee the existence of the Hessian of the risk at its minimizer.

Importance sampling is a promising strategy for improving the convergence rate of stochastic gradient methods. It is typically used to precondition the optimization problem, but it can also be used to reduce the variance of the gradient estimator. Unfortunately, this latter point of view has yet to lead to practical methods that provably improve the asymptotic error of stochastic gradient methods. In this work, we propose stochastic reweighted gradient descent (SRG), a stochastic gradient method based solely on importance sampling that can reduce the variance of the gradient estimator and improve on the asymptotic error of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) in the strongly convex and smooth case. We show that SRG can be extended to combine the benefits of both importance-sampling-based preconditioning and variance reduction. When compared to SGD, the resulting algorithm can simultaneously reduce the condition number and the asymptotic error, both by up to a factor equal to the number of component functions. We demonstrate improved convergence in practice on regularized logistic regression problems.

Reducing the variance of the gradient estimator is known to improve the convergence rate of stochastic gradient-based optimization and sampling algorithms. One way of achieving variance reduction is to design importance sampling strategies. Recently, the problem of designing such schemes was formulated as an online learning problem with bandit feedback, and algorithms with sub-linear static regret were designed. In this work, we build on this framework and propose a simple and efficient algorithm for adaptive importance sampling for finite-sum optimization and sampling with decreasing step-sizes. Under standard technical conditions, we show that our proposed algorithm achieves O(T^{2/3}) and O(T^{5/6}) dynamic regret for SGD and SGLD respectively when run with O(1/t) step sizes. We achieve this dynamic regret bound by leveraging our knowledge of the dynamics defined by the algorithm, and combining ideas from online learning and variance-reduced stochastic optimization. We validate empirically the performance of our algorithm and identify settings in which it leads to significant improvements.