The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a \emph{single} causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In contrast, \emph{Bayesian} causal inference does incorporate epistemic uncertainty into query estimates via Bayesian marginalisation (posterior averaging) over \emph{all} causal models. While principled, this marginalisation over entire causal models, i.e., both causal structures (graphs) and mechanisms, poses a tremendous computational challenge. In this work, we address this challenge by decomposing structure marginalisation into the marginalisation over (i) causal orders and (ii) directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) given an order. We can marginalise the latter in closed form by limiting the number of parents per variable and utilising Gaussian Processes to model mechanisms. To marginalise over orders, we use a sampling-based approximation, for which we devise a novel auto-regressive distribution over causal orders (ARCO). Our method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning on simulated non-linear additive noise benchmarks, and yields competitive results on real-world data. Furthermore, we can accurately infer interventional distributions and average causal effects.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference—quantities that are not of direct interest ought to be marginalized out in this process, thus contributing to our overall uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, i.e., for jointly inferring a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient nonlinear additive Gaussian noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. To capture the space of causal graphs, we use a continuous latent graph representation, allowing our approach to scale to practically relevant problem sizes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, update our beliefs, and repeat. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than existing methods that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples, while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates of the quantities of interest.

Abstract Complex systems, abstractly represented as networks, are ubiquitous in everyday life. Analyzing and understanding these systems requires, among others, tools for community detection. As no single best community detection algorithm can exist, robustness across a wide variety of problem settings is desirable. In this work, we present Synwalk, a random walk-based community detection method. Synwalk builds upon a solid theoretical basis and detects communities by synthesizing the random walk induced by the given network from a class of candidate random walks. We thoroughly validate the effectiveness of our approach on synthetic and empirical networks, respectively, and compare Synwalk’s performance with the performance of Infomap and Walktrap (also random walk-based), Louvain (based on modularity maximization) and stochastic block model inference. Our results indicate that Synwalk performs robustly on networks with varying mixing parameters and degree distributions. We outperform Infomap on networks with high mixing parameter, and Infomap and Walktrap on networks with many small communities and low average degree. Our work has a potential to inspire further development of community detection via synthesis of random walks and we provide concrete ideas for future research.