The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed. However, SCM faces challenges in accurately predicting post-intervention potential outcomes had, contrary to fact, the treatment been withheld, when the pre-intervention period is short or the post-intervention period is long. To address these issues, we propose a novel method that leverages post-intervention information, specifically time-varying correlates of the causal effect called "surrogates", within the synthetic control framework. We establish conditions for identifying model parameters using the proximal inference framework and apply the generalized method of moments (GMM) approach for estimation and inference about the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT). Interestingly, we uncover specific conditions under which exclusively using post-intervention data suffices for estimation within our framework. Through a synthetic experiment and a real-world application, we demonstrate that our method can outperform other synthetic control methods in estimating both short-term and long-term effects, yielding more accurate inferences.

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental obstacle to establishing valid causal conclusions from observational data. Two complementary types of approaches have been developed to address this obstacle: obtaining identification using fortuitous external aids, such as instrumental variables or proxies, or by means of the ID algorithm, using Markov restrictions on the full data distribution encoded in graphical causal models. In this paper we aim to develop a synthesis of the former and latter approaches to identification in causal inference to yield the most general identification algorithm in multivariate systems currently known -- the proximal ID algorithm. In addition to being able to obtain nonparametric identification in all cases where the ID algorithm succeeds, our approach allows us to systematically exploit proxies to adjust for the presence of unobserved confounders that would have otherwise prevented identification. In addition, we outline a class of estimation strategies for causal parameters identified by our method in an important special case. We illustrate our approach by simulation studies and a data application.

Robins et al. (2008) introduced a class of influence functions (IFs) which could be used to obtain doubly robust moment functions for the corresponding parameters. However, that class does not include the IF of parameters for which the nuisance functions are solutions to integral equations. Such parameters are particularly important in the field of causal inference, specifically in the recently proposed proximal causal inference framework of Tchetgen Tchetgen et al. (2020), which allows for estimating the causal effect in the presence of latent confounders. In this paper, we first extend the class of Robins et al. to include doubly robust IFs in which the nuisance functions are solutions to integral equations. Then we demonstrate that the double robustness property of these IFs can be leveraged to construct estimating equations for the nuisance functions, which enables us to solve the integral equations without resorting to parametric models. We frame the estimation of the nuisance functions as a minimax optimization problem. We provide convergence rates for the nuisance functions and conditions required for asymptotic linearity of the estimator of the parameter of interest. The experiment results demonstrate that our proposed methodology leads to robust and high-performance estimators for average causal effect in the proximal causal inference framework.

We study the problem of observational causal inference with continuous treatment. We focus on the challenge of estimating the causal response curve for infrequently-observed treatment values. We design a new algorithm based on the framework of entropy balancing which learns weights that directly maximize causal inference accuracy using end-to-end optimization. Our weights can be customized for different datasets and causal inference algorithms. We propose a new theory for consistency of entropy balancing for continuous treatments. Using synthetic and real-world data, we show that our proposed algorithm outperforms the entropy balancing in terms of causal inference accuracy.

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have emerged for causal inference under unconfoundedness conditions given pre-treatment covariates, including propensity score-based methods, prognostic score-based methods, and doubly robust methods. Unfortunately for applied researchers, there is no ‘one-size-fits-all’ causal method that can perform optimally universally. In practice, causal methods are primarily evaluated quantitatively on handcrafted simulated data. Such data-generative procedures can be of limited value because they are typically stylized models of reality. They are simplified for tractability and lack the complexities of real-world data. For applied researchers, it is critical to understand how well a method performs for the data at hand. Our work introduces a deep generative model-based framework, Credence, to validate causal inference methods. The framework’s novelty stems from its ability to generate synthetic data anchored at the empirical distribution for the observed sample, and therefore virtually indistinguishable from the latter. The approach allows the user to specify ground truth for the form and magnitude of causal effects and confounding bias as functions of covariates. Thus simulated data sets are used to evaluate the potential performance of various causal estimation methods when applied to data similar to the observed sample. We demonstrate Credence’s ability to accurately assess the relative performance of causal estimation techniques in an extensive simulation study and two real-world data applications from Lalonde and Project STAR studies.

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure $\surd{n}$-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce new criteria for selective machine learning which leverage the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

We provide general adaptive upper bounds for estimating nonparametric functionals based on second-order U-statistics arising from finite-dimensional approximation of the infinite-dimensional models. We then provide examples of functionals for which the theory produces rate optimally matching adaptive upper and lower bounds. Our results are automatically adaptive in both parametric and nonparametric regimes of estimation and are automatically adaptive and semiparametric efficient in the regime of parametric convergence rate.