In this era of digital politics, understanding the factors that influence the supply of political information is important. This study investigates the relationship between socio-economic status and the political information supplied on Wikipedia. To this end, it employs a dataset of politicians who ran for local elections in Japan over approximately 20 years and discovers that the creation and revisions of local politicians' pages are associated with socio-economic factors such as the employment ratio by industry and age distribution. We find that the majority of the suppliers of politicians' information are unregistered and primarily interested in politicians' pages compared to registered users. Additional analysis reveals that users who supply information about politicians before and after an election are more active on Wikipedia than the average user. The findings presented imply that the information supply on Wikipedia, which relies on voluntary contributions, may reflect regional socio-economic disparities.

Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns according to their chances of winning. Leading candidates, for example, do not behave the same as fringe candidates in their elections, and vice versa. We, however, know little about this difference in social media political campaign strategies according to their odds in elections. We tackle this problem by analyzing candidates' tweets in terms of users, topics, and sentiment of replies. Our study finds that, as their chances of winning increase, candidates narrow the targets they communicate with, from people in general to the electrical districts and specific persons (verified accounts or accounts with many followers). Our study brings new insights into the candidates' campaign strategies through the analysis based on the novel perspective of the candidate's electoral situation.

In display ad auctions of Real-Time Bidding (RTB), a typical Demand-Side Platform (DSP) bids based on the predicted probability of click and conversion right after an ad impression. Recent studies find such a strategy is suboptimal and propose a better bidding strategy named lift-based bidding. Lift-based bidding simply bids the price according to the lift effect of the ad impression and achieves maximization of target metrics such as sales. Despite its superiority, lift-based bidding has not yet been widely accepted in the avertising industry. For one reason, lift-based bidding is less profitable f or DSP providers under the current billing rule. Second, the practical usefulness of lift-based bidding is not widely understood in the online advertising industry due to the lack of a comprehensive investigation of its impact.We here propose a practically-implementable lift-based bidding system that perfectly fits the current billing rules. We conduct extensive experiments using a real-world advertising campaign and examine the performance under various settings. We find that lift-based bidding, especially unbiased lift-based bidding is most profitable for both DSP providers and advertisers. Our ablation study highlights that lift-based bidding has a good property for currently dominant first price auctions. The results will motivate the online advertising industry to consider lift-based advertising.

Forecasting of geopolitical events is a notoriously difficult task, with experts failing to significantly outperform a random baseline across many types of forecasting events. One successful way to increase the performance of forecasting tasks is to turn to crowdsourcing: leveraging many forecasts from non-expert users. Simultaneously, advances in machine learning have led to models that can produce reasonable, although not perfect, forecasts for many tasks. Recent efforts have shown that forecasts can be further improved by ``hybridizing'' human forecasters: pairing them with the machine models in an effort to combine the unique advantages of both. In this demonstration, we present Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events (SAGE), a platform for human/computer interaction that facilitates human reasoning with machine models.

According to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, hundreds of thousands initiate smoking each year, and millions live with smoking-related diseases in the United States. Many tobacco users discuss their opinions, habits and preferences on social media. This work conceptualizes a framework for targeted health interventions to inform tobacco users about the consequences of tobacco use. We designed a Twitter bot named Notobot (short for No-Tobacco Bot) that leverages machine learning to identify users posting pro-tobacco tweets and select individualized interventions to curb their tobacco use. We searched the Twitter feed for tobacco-related keywords and phrases, and trained a convolutional neural network using over 4,000 tweets manually labeled as either pro-tobacco or not pro-tobacco. This model achieved a 90% accuracy rate on the training set and 74% on test data. Users posting protobacco tweets were matched with former smokers with similar interests who posted anti-tobacco tweets. Algorithmic matching, leveraging the power of peer influence, allows for the systematic delivery of personalized interventions based on real anti-tobacco tweets from former smokers. Experimental evaluation suggested that our system would perform well if deployed.