Abstract Forecasting players in sports has grown in popularity due to the potential for a tactical advantage and the applicability of such research to multi-agent interaction systems. Team sports contain a significant social component that influences interactions between teammates and opponents. However, it still needs to be fully exploited. In this work, we hypothesize that each participant has a specific function in each action and that role-based interaction is critical for predicting players’ future moves. We create RolFor, a novel end-to-end model for Role-based Forecasting. RolFor uses a new module we developed called Ordering Neural Networks (OrderNN) to permute the order of the players such that each player is assigned to a latent role. The latent role is then modeled with a RoleGCN. Thanks to its graph representation, it provides a fully learnable adjacency matrix that captures the relationships between roles and is subsequently used to forecast the players’ future trajectories. Extensive experiments on a challenging NBA basketball dataset back up the importance of roles and justify our goal of modeling them using optimizable models. When an oracle provides roles, the proposed RolFor compares favorably to the current state-of-the-art (it ranks first in terms of ADE and second in terms of FDE errors). However, training the end-to-end RolFor incurs the issues of differentiability of permutation methods, which we experimentally review. Finally, this work restates differentiable ranking as a difficult open problem and its great potential in conjunction with graph-based interaction models.

Correlation Clustering is an important clustering problem with many applications. We study the reconstruction version of this problem, in which one seeks to reconstruct a latent clustering that has been corrupted by random noise and adversarial modifications. Concerning the latter, there is a standard "post-adversarial" model in the literature, in which adversarial modifications come after the noise. Here, we introduce and analyse a "pre-adversarial" model, in which adversarial modifications come before the noise. Given an input coming from such a semi-adversarial generative model, the goal is to approximately reconstruct with high probability the latent clustering. We focus on the case where the hidden clusters have nearly equal size and show the following. In the pre-adversarial setting, spectral algorithms are optimal, in the sense that they reconstruct all the way to the information-theoretic threshold beyond which no reconstruction is possible. This is in contrast to the post-adversarial setting, in which their ability to restore the hidden clusters stops before the threshold, but the gap is optimally filled by SDP-based algorithms. These results highlight a heretofore unknown robustness of spectral algorithms, showing them less brittle than previously thought.

Clustering problems and clustering algorithms are often overly sensitive to the presence of outliers: even a handful of points can greatly affect the structure of the optimal solution and its cost. This is why many algorithms for robust clustering problems have been formulated in recent years. These algorithms discard some points as outliers, excluding them from the clustering. However, outlier selection can be unfair: some categories of input points may be disproportionately affected by the outlier removal algorithm.

Clustering is a central topic in unsupervised learning and its online formulation has received a lot of attention in recent years. In this paper, we study the classic facility location problem in the presence of multiple machine-learned advice. We design an algorithm with provable performance guarantees such that, if the advice is good, it outperforms the best-known online algorithms for the problem, and if it is bad it still matches their performance.We complement our theoretical analysis with an in-depth study of the performance of our algorithm, showing its effectiveness on synthetic and real-world data sets.

Understanding information dynamics and their resulting cascades is a central topic in social network analysis. In a recent seminal work, Cheng et al. analyzed multiples cascades on Facebook over several months, and noticed that many of them exhibit a recurring behaviour. They tend to have multiple peaks of popularity, with periods of quiescence in between.