Explaining stock predictions is generally a difficult task for traditional non-generative deep learning models, where explanations are limited to visualizing the attention weights on important texts. Today, Large Language Models (LLMs) present a solution to this problem, given their known capabilities to generate human-readable explanations for their decision-making process. However, the task of stock prediction remains challenging for LLMs, as it requires the ability to weigh the varying impacts of chaotic social texts on stock prices. The problem gets progressively harder with the introduction of the explanation component, which requires LLMs to explain verbally why certain factors are more important than the others. On the other hand, to fine-tune LLMs for such a task, one would need expert-annotated samples of explanation for every stock movement in the training set, which is expensive and impractical to scale.

Multi-step stock price prediction over a long-term horizon is crucial for forecasting its volatility, allowing financial institutions to price and hedge derivatives, and banks to quantify the risk in their trading books. Additionally, most financial regulators also require a liquidity horizon of several days for institutional investors to exit their risky assets, in order to not materially affect market prices. However, the task of multi-step stock price prediction is challenging, given the highly stochastic nature of stock data. Current solutions to tackle this problem are mostly designed for single-step, classification-based predictions, and are limited to low representation expressiveness. The problem also gets progressively harder with the introduction of the target price sequence, which also contains stochastic noise and reduces generalizability at test-time.

The financial markets are moved by events such as the issuance of administrative orders. The participants in financial markets (e.g., traders) thus pay constant attention to financial news relevant to the financial asset (e.g., oil) of interest. Due to the large scale of news stream, it is time and labor intensive to manually identify influential events that can move the price of the financial asset, pushing the financial participants to embrace automatic financial event ranking, which has received relatively little scrutiny to date. In this work, we formulate the financial event ranking task, which aims to score financial news (document) according to its influence to the given asset (query). To solve this task, we propose a Hybrid News Ranking framework that, from the asset perspective, evaluates the influence of news articles by comparing their contents; and from the event perspective, accesses the influence over all query assets. Moreover, we resolve the dilemma between the essential requirement of sufficient labels for training the framework and the unaffordable cost of hiring domain experts for labeling the news. In particular, we design a cost-friendly system for news labeling that leverages the knowledge within published financial analyst reports. In this way, we construct three financial event ranking datasets. Extensive experiments on the datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed framework and the rationality of solving financial event ranking through learning to rank.