The traditional two-stage approach to causal inference first identifies a \emph{single} causal model (or equivalence class of models), which is then used to answer causal queries. However, this neglects any epistemic model uncertainty. In contrast, \emph{Bayesian} causal inference does incorporate epistemic uncertainty into query estimates via Bayesian marginalisation (posterior averaging) over \emph{all} causal models. While principled, this marginalisation over entire causal models, i.e., both causal structures (graphs) and mechanisms, poses a tremendous computational challenge. In this work, we address this challenge by decomposing structure marginalisation into the marginalisation over (i) causal orders and (ii) directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) given an order. We can marginalise the latter in closed form by limiting the number of parents per variable and utilising Gaussian Processes to model mechanisms. To marginalise over orders, we use a sampling-based approximation, for which we devise a novel auto-regressive distribution over causal orders (ARCO). Our method outperforms state-of-the-art in structure learning on simulated non-linear additive noise benchmarks, and yields competitive results on real-world data. Furthermore, we can accurately infer interventional distributions and average causal effects.

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

Detecting weaknesses in cryptographic algorithms is of utmost importance for designing secure information systems. The state-of-the-art *soft analytical side-channel attack* (SASCA) uses physical leakage information to make probabilistic predictions about intermediate computations and combines these "guesses" with the known algorithmic logic to compute the posterior distribution over the key. This attack is commonly performed via loopy belief propagation, which, however, lacks guarantees in terms of convergence and inference quality. In this paper, we develop a fast and exact inference method for SASCA, denoted as ExSASCA, by leveraging knowledge compilation and tractable probabilistic circuits. When attacking the *Advanced Encryption Standard* (AES), the most widely used encryption algorithm to date, ExSASCA outperforms SASCA by more than 31% top-1 success rate absolute. By leveraging sparse belief messages, this performance is achieved with little more computational cost than SASCA, and about 3 orders of magnitude less than exact inference via exhaustive enumeration. Even with dense belief messages, ExSASCA still uses 6 times less computations than exhaustive inference.

While machine learning is traditionally a resource intensive task, embedded systems, autonomous navigation, and the vision of the Internet of Things fuel the interest in resource-efficient approaches. These approaches aim for a carefully chosen trade-off between performance and resource consumption in terms of computation and energy. The development of such approaches is among the major challenges in current machine learning research and key to ensure a smooth transition of machine learning technology from a scientific environment with virtually unlimited computing resources into everyday's applications. In this article, we provide an overview of the current state of the art of machine learning techniques facilitating these real-world requirements. In particular, we focus on resource-efficient inference based on deep neural networks (DNNs), the predominant machine learning models of the past decade. We give a comprehensive overview of the vast literature that can be mainly split into three non-mutually exclusive categories: (i) quantized neural networks, (ii) network pruning, and (iii) structural efficiency. These techniques can be applied during training or as post-processing, and they are widely used to reduce the computational demands in terms of memory footprint, inference speed, and energy efficiency. We also briefly discuss different concepts of embedded hardware for DNNs and their compatibility with machine learning techniques as well as potential for energy and latency reduction. We substantiate our discussion with experiments on well-known benchmark data sets using compression techniques (quantization, pruning) for a set of resource-constrained embedded systems, such as CPUs, GPUs and FPGAs. The obtained results highlight the difficulty of finding good trade-offs between resource efficiency and prediction quality.

Probabilistic models based on continuous latent spaces, such as variational autoencoders, can be understood as uncountable mixture models where components depend continuously on the latent code. They have proven to be expressive tools for generative and probabilistic modelling, but are at odds with tractable probabilistic inference, that is, computing marginals and conditionals of the represented probability distribution. Meanwhile, tractable probabilistic models such as probabilistic circuits (PCs) can be understood as hierarchical discrete mixture models, and thus are capable of performing exact inference efficiently but often show subpar performance in comparison to continuous latent-space models. In this paper, we investigate a hybrid approach, namely continuous mixtures of tractable models with a small latent dimension. While these models are analytically intractable, they are well amenable to numerical integration schemes based on a finite set of integration points. With a large enough number of integration points the approximation becomes de-facto exact. Moreover, for a finite set of integration points, the integration method effectively compiles the continuous mixture into a standard PC. In experiments, we show that this simple scheme proves remarkably effective, as PCs learnt this way set new state of the art for tractable models on many standard density estimation benchmarks.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a prominent representation of probability distributions with tractable inference. While parameter learning in PCs is rigorously studied, structure learning is often more based on heuristics than on principled objectives. In this paper, we develop Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, i.e., the structure likelihood with parameters marginalized out, which are well known as rigorous objectives for structure learning in probabilistic graphical models. When used within a greedy cutset algorithm, our scores effectively protect against overfitting and yield a fast and almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner, distinguishing it from previous approaches. In experiments, we achieve good trade-offs between training time and model fit in terms of log-likelihood. Moreover, the principled nature of Bayesian scores unlocks PCs for accommodating frameworks such as structural expectation-maximization.

Some of the most successful knowledge graph embedding (KGE) models for link prediction – CP, RESCAL, TuckER, ComplEx – can be interpreted as energy-based models. Under this perspective they are not amenable for exact maximum-likelihood estimation (MLE), sampling and struggle to integrate logical constraints. This work re-interprets the score functions of these KGEs as circuits – constrained computational graphs allowing efficient marginalisation. Then, we design two recipes to obtain efficient generative circuit models by either restricting their activations to be non-negative or squaring their outputs. Our interpretation comes with little or no loss of performance for link prediction, while the circuits framework unlocks exact learning by MLE, efficient sampling of new triples, and guarantee that logical constraints are satisfied by design. Furthermore, our models scale more gracefully than the original KGEs on graphs with millions of entities.

Causal discovery and causal reasoning are classically treated as separate and consecutive tasks: one first infers the causal graph, and then uses it to estimate causal effects of interventions. However, such a two-stage approach is uneconomical, especially in terms of actively collected interventional data, since the causal query of interest may not require a fully-specified causal model. From a Bayesian perspective, it is also unnatural, since a causal query (e.g., the causal graph or some causal effect) can be viewed as a latent quantity subject to posterior inference—quantities that are not of direct interest ought to be marginalized out in this process, thus contributing to our overall uncertainty. In this work, we propose Active Bayesian Causal Inference (ABCI), a fully-Bayesian active learning framework for integrated causal discovery and reasoning, i.e., for jointly inferring a posterior over causal models and queries of interest. In our approach to ABCI, we focus on the class of causally-sufficient nonlinear additive Gaussian noise models, which we model using Gaussian processes. To capture the space of causal graphs, we use a continuous latent graph representation, allowing our approach to scale to practically relevant problem sizes. We sequentially design experiments that are maximally informative about our target causal query, collect the corresponding interventional data, update our beliefs, and repeat. Through simulations, we demonstrate that our approach is more data-efficient than existing methods that only focus on learning the full causal graph. This allows us to accurately learn downstream causal queries from fewer samples, while providing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates of the quantities of interest.

While probabilistic graphical models are a central tool for reasoning under uncertainty in AI, they are in general not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions and ensure tractable inference, but still lack the expressive power of intractable models based on deep neural networks. In this paper, we introduce conditional SPNs (CSPNs)—conditional density estimators for multivariate and potentially hybrid domains—and develop a structure-learning approach that derives both the structure and parameters of CSPNs from data. To harness the expressive power of deep neural networks (DNNs), we also show how to realize CSPNs by conditioning the parameters of vanilla SPNs on the input using DNNs as gate functions. In contrast to SPNs whose high-level structure can not be explicitly manipulated, CSPNs can naturally be used as tractable building blocks of deep probabilistic models whose modular structure maintains high-level interpretability. In experiments, we demonstrate that CSPNs are competitive with other probabilistic models and yield superior performance on structured prediction, conditional density estimation, auto-regressive image modeling, and multilabel image classification. In particular, we show that employing CSPNs as encoders and decoders within variational autoencoders can help to relax the commonly used mean field assumption and in turn improve performance.

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference is frequently employed, where a prominent class of approximation techniques is based on local GP experts. However, local-expert techniques proposed so far are either not well-principled, come with limited approximation guarantees, or lead to intractable models. In this paper, we introduce deep structured mixtures of GP experts, a stochastic process model which i) allows exact posterior inference, ii) has attractive computational and memory costs, and iii) when used as GP approximation, captures predictive uncertainties consistently better than previous expert-based approximations. In a variety of experiments, we show that deep structured mixtures have a low approximation error and often perform competitive or outperform prior work.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a promising avenue for probabilistic modeling, as they permit a wide range of exact and efficient inference routines. Recent “deep-learning-style” implementations of PCs strive for a better scalability, but are still difficult to train on real-world data, due to their sparsely connected computational graphs. In this paper, we propose Einsum Networks (EiNets), a novel implementation design for PCs, improving prior art in several regards. At their core, EiNets combine a large number of arithmetic operations in a single monolithic einsum-operation, leading to speedups and memory savings of up to two orders of magnitude, in comparison to previous implementations. As an algorithmic contribution, we show that the implementation of Expectation-Maximization (EM) can be simplified for PCs, by leveraging automatic differentiation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that EiNets scale well to datasets which were previously out of reach, such as SVHN and CelebA, and that they can be used as faithful generative image models.

Decision Trees (DTs) and Random Forests (RFs) are powerful discriminative learners and tools of central importance to the everyday machine learning practitioner and data scientist. Due to their discriminative nature, however, they lack principled methods to process inputs with missing features or to detect outliers, which requires pairing them with imputation techniques or a separate generative model. In this paper, we demonstrate that DTs and RFs can naturally be interpreted as generative models, by drawing a connection to Probabilistic Circuits, a prominent class of tractable probabilistic models. This reinterpretation equips them with a full joint distribution over the feature space and leads to Generative Decision Trees (GeDTs) and Generative Forests (GeFs), a family of novel hybrid generative-discriminative models. This family of models retains the overall characteristics of DTs and RFs while additionally being able to handle missing features by means of marginalisation. Under certain assumptions, frequently made for Bayes consistency results, we show that consistency in GeDTs and GeFs extend to any pattern of missing input features, if missing at random. Empirically, we show that our models often outperform common routines to treat missing data, such as K-nearest neighbour imputation, and moreover, that our models can naturally detect outliers by monitoring the marginal probability of input features.

Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for exploratory data analysis are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing, corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.

The recent Attend-Infer-Repeat (AIR) framework marks a milestone in structured probabilistic modeling, as it tackles the challenging problem of unsupervised scene understanding via Bayesian inference. AIR expresses the composition of visual scenes from individual objects, and uses variational autoencoders to model the appearance of those objects. However, inference in the overall model is highly intractable, which hampers its learning speed and makes it prone to suboptimal solutions. In this paper, we show that the speed and robustness of learning in AIR can be considerably improved by replacing the intractable object representations with tractable probabilistic models. In particular, we opt for sum-product networks (SPNs), expressive deep probabilistic models with a rich set of tractable inference routines. The resulting model, called SuPAIR, learns an order of magnitude faster than AIR, treats object occlusions in a consistent manner, and allows for the inclusion of a background noise model, improving the robustness of Bayesian scene understanding.

Variational autoencoders (VAEs) have received considerable attention, since they allow us to learn expressive neural density estimators effectively and efficiently. However, learning and inference in VAEs is still problematic due to the sensitive interplay between the generative model and the inference network. Since these problems become generally more severe in high dimensions, we propose a novel hierarchical mixture model over low-dimensional VAE experts. Our model decomposes the overall learning problem into many smaller problems, which are coordinated by the hierarchical mixture, represented by a sum-product network. In experiments we show that our models outperform classical VAEs on almost all of our experimental benchmarks. Moreover, we show that our model is highly data efficient and degrades very gracefully in extremely low data regimes.ow data regimes.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning. First, we decompose the problem into i) laying out a computational graph, and ii) learning the so-called scope function over the graph. The first is rather unproblematic and akin to neural network architecture validation. The second represents the effective structure of the SPN and needs to respect the usual structural constraints in SPN, i.e. completeness and decomposability. While representing and learning the scope function is somewhat involved in general, in this paper, we propose a natural parametrisation for an important and widely used special case of SPNs. These structural parameters are incorporated into a Bayesian model, such that simultaneous structure and parameter learning is cast into monolithic Bayesian posterior inference. In various experiments, our Bayesian SPNs often improve test likelihoods over greedy SPN learners. Further, since the Bayesian framework protects against overfitting, we can evaluate hyper-parameters directly on the Bayesian model score, waiving the need for a separate validation set, which is especially beneficial in low data regimes. Bayesian SPNs can be applied to heterogeneous domains and can easily be extended to nonparametric formulations. Moreover, our Bayesian approach is the first, which consistently and robustly learns SPN structures under missing data.

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are a deep probabilistic architecture that up to now has been successfully employed for tractable inference. Here, we extend their scope towards unsupervised representation learning: we encode samples into continuous and categorical embeddings and show that they can also be decoded back into the original input space by leveraging MPE inference. We characterize when this Sum-Product Autoencoding (SPAE) leads to equivalent reconstructions and extend it towards dealing with missing embedding information. Our experimental results on several multi-label classification problems demonstrate that SPAE is competitive with state-of-the-art autoencoder architectures, even if the SPNs were never trained to reconstruct their inputs.

One of the central themes in Sum-Product networks (SPNs) is the interpretation of sum nodes as marginalized latent variables (LVs). This interpretation yields an increased syntactic or semantic structure, allows the application of the EM algorithm and to efficiently perform MPE inference. In literature, the LV interpretation was justified by explicitly introducing the indicator variables corresponding to the LVs' states. However, as pointed out in this paper, this approach is in conflict with the completeness condition in SPNs and does not fully specify the probabilistic model. We propose a remedy for this problem by modifying the original approach for introducing the LVs, which we call SPN augmentation. We discuss conditional independencies in augmented SPNs, formally establish the probabilistic interpretation of the sum-weights and give an interpretation of augmented SPNs as Bayesian networks. Based on these results, we find a sound derivation of the EM algorithm for SPNs. Furthermore, the Viterbi-style algorithm for MPE proposed in literature was never proven to be correct. We show that this is indeed a correct algorithm, when applied to selective SPNs, and in particular when applied to augmented SPNs. Our theoretical results are confirmed in experiments on synthetic data and 103 real-world datasets.

In recent years, voice activity detection has been a highly researched field, due to its importance as input stage in many real-world applications. Automated detection of vocalisations in the very first year of life is still a stepchild of this field. On our quest defining acoustic parameters in pre-linguistic vocalisations as markers for neuro(mal)development, we are confronted with the challenge of manually segmenting and annotating hours of variable quality home video material for sequences of infant voice/vocalisations. While in total our corpus comprises video footage of typically developing infants and infants with various neurodevelopmental disorders of more than a year running time, only a small proportion has been processed so far. This calls for automated assistance tools for detecting and/or segmenting infant utterances from real-live video recordings. In this paper, we investigated several approaches of infant voice detection and segmentation, including a rule-based voice activity detector, hidden Markov models with Gaussian mixture observation models, support vector machines, and random forests. Results indicate that the applied methods could be well applied in a semi-automated retrieval of infant utterances from highly non-standardised footage. At the same time, our results show that, a fully automated approach for this problem is yet to come.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are a promising avenue for probabilistic modeling and have been successfully applied to various tasks. However, some theoretic properties about SPNs are not yet well understood. In this paper we fill some gaps in the theoretic foundation of SPNs. First, we show that the weights of any complete and consistent SPN can be transformed into locally normalized weights without changing the SPN distribution. Second, we show that consistent SPNs cannot model distributions significantly (exponentially) more compactly than decomposable SPNs. As a third contribution, we extend the inference mechanisms known for SPNs with finite states to generalized SPNs with arbitrary input distributions.

Recently, sum-product networks (SPNs) showed convincing results on the ill-posed task of artificial bandwidth extension (ABE). However, SPNs are just one type of many architectures which can be summarized as representational models. In this paper, using ABE as benchmark task, we perform a comparative study of Gauss Bernoulli restricted Boltzmann machines, conditional restricted Boltzmann machines, higher order contractive autoencoders, SPNs and generative stochastic networks (GSNs). Especially the latter ones are promising architectures in terms of its reconstruction capabilities. Our experiments show impressive results of GSNs, achieving on average an improvement of 3.90dB and 4.08dB in segmental SNR on a speaker dependent (SD) and speaker independent (SI) scenario compared to SPNs, respectively.

In this paper, we use deep representation learning for model-based single-channel source separation (SCSS) and artificial bandwidth extension (ABE). Both tasks are ill-posed and source-specific prior knowledge is required. In addition to well-known generative models such as restricted Boltzmann machines and higher order contractive autoencoders two recently introduced deep models, namely generative stochastic networks (GSNs) and sum-product networks (SPNs), are used for learning spectrogram representations. For SCSS we evaluate the deep architectures on data of the 2ndCHiME speech separation challenge and provide results for a speaker dependent, a speaker independent, a matched noise condition and an unmatched noise condition task. GSNs obtain the best PESQ and overall perceptual score on average in all four tasks. Similarly, frame-wise GSNs are able to reconstruct the missing frequency bands in ABE best, measured in frequency-domain segmental SNR. They outperform SPNs embedded in hidden Markov models and the other representation models significantly.

Sum-product networks (SPNs) are a recently proposed type of probabilistic graphical models allowing complex variable interactions while still granting efficient inference. In this paper we demonstrate the suitability of SPNs for modeling log-spectra of speech signals using the application of artificial bandwidth extension, i.e. artificially replacing the high-frequency content which is lost in telephone signals. We use SPNs as observation models in hidden Markov models (HMMs), which model the temporal evolution of log short-time spectra. Missing frequency bins are replaced by the SPNs using most-probable-explanation inference, where the state-dependent reconstructions are weighted with the HMM state posterior. According to subjective listening and objective evaluation, our system consistently and significantly improves the state of the art.

Although discriminative learning in graphical models generally improves classification results, the generative semantics of the model are compromised. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach of hybrid generative-discriminative learning for Bayesian networks. We use an SVM-type large margin formulation for discriminative training, introducing a likelihood-weighted \ell^1-norm for the SVM-norm-penalization. This simultaneously optimizes the data likelihood and therefore partly maintains the generative character of the model. For many network structures, our method can be formulated as a convex problem, guaranteeing a globally optimal solution. In terms of classification, the resulting models outperform state-of-the art generative and discriminative learning methods for Bayesian networks, and are comparable with linear and kernelized SVMs. Furthermore, the models achieve likelihoods close to the maximum likelihood solution and show robust behavior in classification experiments with missing features.

For model-based single channel source separation, one typically assumes a linear interaction model, i.e. that the mixture magnitude spectrogram is the sum of the individual source magnitude spectrograms. In the log-domain, the MIXMAX interaction model is the corresponding approximation for the linear model. Hence, one would expect similar performance for both approaches. However, in this paper we empirically show that this is not the case for vector-quantizer-based (VQ) single channel source separation. We propose factorial linear-VQ, the linear counterpart to factorial max-VQ, and compare the two methods in systematic source separation experiments. Linear-VQ performs significantly better than max-VQ for comparable code-book sizes and behaves more robustly in the presence of additive white noise. Furthermore, we compare resynthesis properties of binary and continuous time-frequency masks. While binary masks achieve a higher interference suppression, the use of continuous masks results in a consistently better signal quality.

Although nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) favors a sparse and part-based representation of nonnegative data, there is no guarantee for this behavior. Several authors proposed NMF methods which enforce sparseness by constraining or penalizing the [Formula: see text] of the factor matrices. On the other hand, little work has been done using a more natural sparseness measure, the [Formula: see text]. In this paper, we propose a framework for approximate NMF which constrains the [Formula: see text] of the basis matrix, or the coefficient matrix, respectively. For this purpose, techniques for unconstrained NMF can be easily incorporated, such as multiplicative update rules, or the alternating nonnegative least-squares scheme. In experiments we demonstrate the benefits of our methods, which compare to, or outperform existing approaches.

While nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) has successfully been applied for gain-robust multi-pitch detection, a method to track pitch values over time was not provided. We embed NMF-based pitch detection into a recently proposed pitch-tracking system, based on a factorial hidden Markov model (FHMM). The original system models speech spectra with Gaussian mixture models, which is sensitive to a gain mismatch between training and test data. We therefore combine the advantages of these two approaches and derive a gain-adaptive observation model for the FHMM. As training algorithm we use a modification of ℓ0-sparse NMF, which represents the short-time spectrum with scalable basis vectors. In experiments we show that the new approach significantly increases the gain-robustness of the original tracking system.

We significantly improve the computational efficiency of a probabilistic approach for multiple pitch tracking. This method is based on a factorial hidden Markov model and two alternative interaction models for magnitude and log-magnitude spectra, respectively. The main computational bottleneck comprises the determination of observation likelihoods. However, we show that up to 99.5% of the smallest likelihood values can be discarded at each time frame with out affecting the overall tracking accuracy. For both interaction models, we present a heuristic to efficiently find the largest likelihood values. Experiments on the GRID database show that the proposed methods result in a major speedup without significantly changing tracking accuracy.

We propose a probabilistic factorial sparse coder model for single channel source separation in the magnitude spectrogram domain. The mixture spectrogram is assumed to be the sum of the sources, which are assumed to be generated frame-wise as the output of sparse coders plus noise. For dictionary training we use an algorithm which can be described as non-negative matrix factorization with ℓ0 sparseness constraints. In order to infer likely source spectrogram candidates, we approximate the intractable exact inference by maximizing the posterior over a plausible subset of solutions. We compare our system to the factorial-max vector quantization model, where the proposed method shows a superior performance in terms of signal-to-interference ratio. Finally, the low computational requirements of the algorithm allows close to real time applications. © 2010 ISCA.