Imputing missing values in spatial-temporal traffic data is essential for intelligent transportation systems. Among advanced imputation methods, score-based diffusion models have demonstrated competitive performance. These models generate data by reversing a noising process, using observed values as conditional guidance. However, existing diffusion models typically apply a uniform guidance scale across both spatial and temporal dimensions, which is inadequate for nodes with high missing data rates. Sparse observations provide insufficient conditional guidance, causing the generative process to drift toward the learned prior distribution rather than closely following the conditional observations, resulting in suboptimal imputation performance. To address this, we propose FENCE, a spatial-temporal feedback diffusion guidance method designed to adaptively control guidance scales during imputation. First, FENCE introduces a dynamic feedback mechanism that adjusts the guidance scale based on the posterior likelihood approximations. The guidance scale is increased when generated values diverge from observations and reduced when alignment improves, preventing overcorrection. Second, because alignment to observations varies across nodes and denoising steps, a global guidance scale for all nodes is suboptimal. FENCE computes guidance scales at the cluster level by grouping nodes based on their attention scores, leveraging spatial-temporal correlations to provide more accurate guidance. Experimental results on real-world traffic datasets show that FENCE significantly enhances imputation accuracy.

In Location-Based Services (LBS), such as food delivery, a fundamental task is segmenting Areas of Interest (AOIs), aiming at partitioning the urban geographical spaces into non-overlapping regions. Traditional AOI segmentation algorithms primarily rely on road networks to partition urban areas. While promising in modeling the geo-semantics, road network-based models overlooked the service-semantic goals (e.g., workload equality) in LBS service. In this article, we point out that the AOI segmentation problem can be naturally formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), which gradually chooses a nearby AOI for each grid in the current AOI’s border. Based on the MDP, we present the first attempt to generalize Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for AOI segmentation, leading to a novel DRL-based framework called DRL4AOI. The DRL4AOI framework introduces different service-semantic goals in a flexible way by treating them as rewards that guide the AOI generation. To evaluate the effectiveness of DRL4AOI, we develop and release an AOI segmentation system. We also present a representative implementation of DRL4AOI—TrajRL4AOI—for AOI segmentation in the logistics service. It introduces a Double Deep Q-learning Network (DDQN) to gradually optimize the AOI generation for two specific semantic goals: (i) trajectory modularity, i.e., maximize tightness of the trajectory connections within an AOI and the sparsity of connections between AOIs, (ii) matchness with the road network, i.e., maximizing the matchness between AOIs and the road network. Quantitative and qualitative experiments conducted on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our method. The code and system is publicly available at https://github.com/Kogler7/AoiOpt .

Spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation are important for real-world intelligent systems. Most existing methods are tailored for individual forecasting or imputation tasks but are not designed for both. Additionally, they are less effective for zero-shot and few-shot learning. While pre-trained language model (PLM) have exhibited strong pattern recognition and reasoning abilities across various tasks, including few-shot and zero-shot learning, their applications in spatial-temporal data understanding has been constrained by insufficient modeling of complex correlations such as the temporal correlations, spatial connectivity, non-pairwise and high-order spatial-temporal correlations within data. In this paper, we propose STD-PLM for understanding both spatial and temporal properties of Spatial-Temporal Data with PLM, which is capable of implementing both spatial-temporal forecasting and imputation tasks. STD-PLM understands spatial-temporal correlations via explicitly designed spatial and temporal tokenizers. Topology-aware node embeddings are designed for PLM to comprehend and exploit the topology structure of data in inductive manner. Furthermore, to mitigate the efficiency issues introduced by the PLM, we design a sandglass attention module(SGA) combined with a specific constrained loss function, which significantly improves the model's efficiency while ensuring performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that STD-PLM exhibits competitive performance and generalization capabilities across the forecasting and imputation tasks on various datasets. Moreover, STD-PLM achieves promising results on both few-shot and zero-shot tasks.

Uncertainty quantification in travel time estimation (TTE) aims to estimate the confidence interval for travel time, given the origin (O), destination (D), and departure time (T). Accurately quantifying this uncertainty requires generating the most likely path and assessing travel time uncertainty along the path. This involves two main challenges: 1) Predicting a path that aligns with the ground truth, and 2) modeling the impact of travel time in each segment on overall uncertainty under varying conditions. We propose DutyTTE to address these challenges. For the first challenge, we introduce a deep reinforcement learning method to improve alignment between the predicted path and the ground truth, providing more accurate travel time information from road segments to improve TTE. For the second challenge, we propose a mixture of experts guided uncertainty quantification mechanism to better capture travel time uncertainty for each segment under varying contexts. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed method.

Traffic signal control (TSC) plays a crucial role in the intelligent transportation system. Among existing TSC approaches, Proactive Traffic Signal Control (PTSC) predicts future traffic states at intersections and proactively adjusts control policies. It is evident that PTSC methods are highly effective in alleviating both current and future traffic congestion at intersections. However, existing PTSC methods focus on point estimation prediction while neglecting prediction reliability. Additionally, they fail to adaptively coordinate between current and future traffic states for optimal control. To address these limitations, we propose an innovative Proactive-Plugin that can be combined with existing TSC methods to enhance the accuracy and robustness of traffic signal control policies. This plugin enhances two critical aspects: 1) Prediction reliability is achieved through Fine-grained Traffic Uncertainty Quantification. This module generates probabilistic forecasts along with confidence intervals to explicitly indicate the credibility of the predictions. 2) Coordination adaptiveness is enabled by a Current-Future Tradeoff Integration mechanism. This mechanism dynamically adjusts the relative influence of current traffic states and probabilistic forecasts on control policies. To further ensure robustness, we design a multi-task joint optimization to reduce the negative impact of inaccurate predictions during training. Experimental results on six real-world datasets demonstrate consistent improvements in traffic efficiency, validating the effectiveness of our approach.

Real-world last-mile express datasets are crucial for research in logistics, supply chain management, and spatio-temporal data mining. Despite a plethora of algorithms developed to date, no widely accepted, publicly available last-mile express dataset exists to support research in this field. In this paper, we introduce LaDe, the first publicly available last-mile express dataset with millions of packages from the industry. LaDe has three unique characteristics: (1)Large-scale. It involves 10,677k packages of 21k couriers over 6 months of real-world operation. (2)Comprehensive information. It offers original package information, task-event information, as well as couriers' detailed trajecotries and road networks. (3)Diversity. The dataset includes data from various scenarios, including package pick-up and delivery, and from multiple cities, each with its unique spatio-temporal patterns due to their distinct characteristics such as populations. We verify LaDe on three tasks by running several classical baseline models per task. We believe that the large-scale, comprehensive, diverse feature of LaDe can offer unparalleled opportunities to researchers in the supply chain community, data mining community, and beyond. The dataset and code is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Cainiao-AI/LaDe.

The application of reinforcement learning in traffic signal control (TSC) has been extensively researched and yielded notable achievements. However, most existing works for TSC assume that traffic data from all surrounding intersections is fully and continuously available through sensors. In real-world applications, this assumption often fails due to sensor malfunctions or data loss, making TSC with missing data a critical challenge. To meet the needs of practical applications, we introduce DiffLight, a novel conditional diffusion model for TSC under data-missing scenarios in the offline setting. Specifically, we integrate two essential sub-tasks, i.e., traffic data imputation and decision-making, by leveraging a Partial Rewards Conditioned Diffusion (PRCD) model to prevent missing rewards from interfering with the learning process. Meanwhile, to effectively capture the spatial-temporal dependencies among intersections, we design a Spatial-Temporal transFormer (STFormer) architecture. In addition, we propose a Diffusion Communication Mechanism (DCM) to promote better communication and control performance under data-missing scenarios. Extensive experiments on five datasets with various data-missing scenarios demonstrate that DiffLight is an effective controller to address TSC with missing data. The code of DiffLight is released at https://github.com/lokol5579/DiffLight-release.

Instant delivery services, such as food delivery and package delivery, have achieved explosive growth in recent years by providing customers with daily-life convenience. An emerging research area within these services is service Route&Time Prediction (RTP), which aims to estimate the future service route as well as the arrival time of a given worker. As one of the most crucial tasks in those service platforms, RTP stands central to enhancing user satisfaction and trimming operational expenditures on these platforms. Despite a plethora of algorithms developed to date, there is no systematic, comprehensive survey to guide researchers in this domain. To fill this gap, our work presents the first comprehensive survey that methodically categorizes recent advances in service route and time prediction. We start by defining the RTP challenge and then delve into the metrics that are often employed. Following that, we scrutinize the existing RTP methodologies, presenting a novel taxonomy of them. We categorize these methods based on three criteria: (i) type of task, subdivided into only-route prediction, only-time prediction, and joint route&time prediction; (ii) model architecture, which encompasses sequence-based and graph-based models; and (iii) learning paradigm, including Supervised Learning (SL) and Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL). Conclusively, we highlight the limitations of current research and suggest prospective avenues. We believe that the taxonomy, progress, and prospects introduced in this paper can significantly promote the development of this field.

In the logistics network, accurately estimating packages' Travel Time Distribution (TTD) given the routes greatly benefits both consumers and platforms. Although recent works perform well in predicting an expected time or a time distribution in a road network, they could not be well applied to estimate TTD in logistics networks. Because TTD prediction in the logistics network requires modeling packages' multimodal TTD (MTTD, i.e., there can be more than one likely output with a given input) while leveraging the complex correlations in the logistics network. To this end, this work opens appealing research opportunities in studying MTTD learning conditioned on graph-structure data by investigating packages' travel time distribution in the logistics network. We propose a Graph-based Mixture Density Network, named GMDNet, which takes the benefits of both graph neural network and mixture density network for estimating MTTD conditioned on graph-structure data (i.e., the logistics network). Furthermore, we adopt the Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework in the training process to guarantee local convergence and thus obtain more stable results than gradient descent. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

Last-mile delivery, which refers to delivering packages from the depot to customers, is a crucial step for logistics service. The Route and Time Prediction (RTP) in last-mile package delivery is beneficial to improve customers’ experience and supervise couriers’ behavior. However, the limited raw information brings great challenges to accurately predict the route and delivery time. In this paper, we propose a deep model named I2RTP, which explores the heterogeneous representation of the package’s community to help predict the delivery route and estimate the arrival time of each package. Specifically, for the entire delivery route prediction, we model the inter- and intra-community information to learn the route features from global and local perspectives. Besides, by integrating the community representation with package features, our model could make more accurate predictions of the next-delivery package and its time duration. Experiments on the offline dataset and the online deployment on Cainiao’s Delivery System demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, as well as validate the rationality of the global and local prediction pipeline.

Pick-up and Delivery Route Prediction (PDRP), which aims to estimate the future service route of a worker given his current task pool, has received rising attention in recent years. Deep neural networks based on supervised learning have emerged as the dominant model for the task because of their powerful ability to capture workers' behavior patterns from massive historical data. Though promising, they fail to introduce the non-differentiable test criteria into the training process, leading to a mismatch in training and test criteria. Which considerably trims down their performance when applied in practical systems. To tackle the above issue, we present the first attempt to generalize Reinforcement Learning (RL) to the route prediction task, leading to a novel RL-based framework called DRL4Route. It combines the behavior-learning abilities of previous deep learning models with the non-differentiable objective optimization ability of reinforcement learning. DRL4Route can serve as a plug-and-play component to boost the existing deep learning models. Based on the framework, we further implement a model named DRL4Route-GAE for PDRP in logistic service. It follows the actor-critic architecture which is equipped with a Generalized Advantage Estimator that can balance the bias and variance of the policy gradient estimates, thus achieving a more optimal policy. Extensive offline experiments and the online deployment show that DRL4Route-GAE improves Location Square Deviation (LSD) by 0.9%-2.7%, and Accuracy@3 (ACC@3) by 2.4%-3.2% over existing methods on the real-world dataset.

Pick-up and delivery (P&D) services such as food delivery have achieved explosive growth in recent years by providing customers with daily-life convenience. Though many service providers have invested considerably in routing tools, more and more practitioners realize that significant deviations exist between workers' actual routes and planned ones. So it is not wise to feed "optimal routes" as workers' actual service routes into downstream tasks (e.g., arrival-time prediction and order dispatching), whose performances count on the accuracy of route prediction, i.e., to predict the future service route of a worker's unfinished tasks. Therefore, to meet the rising calling for route prediction models that can capture workers' future routing behaviors, in this paper, we formulate the Pick-up and Delivery Route Prediction task (PDRP task for short) from the graph perspective for the first time, then propose a dynamic spatial-temporal graph-based model, named Graph2Route. Unlike previous sequence-based models, our model leverages the underlying graph structure and features into the encoding and decoding process. Moreover, the dynamic graph-based nature can spontaneously describe the evolving relationship between different problem instances. As a result, abundant decision context information and various spatial-temporal information of node/edge can be fully utilized in Graph2Route to improve the prediction performance. Offline experiments over two real-world industry-scale datasets under different P&D services (i.e., food delivery and package pick-up) and online A/B test demonstrate the superiority of our proposed model.

The ACM SIGSPATIAL GIS CUP 2021 focuses on Estimated Time of Arrival (ETA) prediction, which is important to the travel scheduling and decision-making of ride-hailing platforms. Accurate ETA prediction is very challenging since ETA is affected by many heterogeneous influencing factors, including static features (e.g., number of links) and dynamic features (e.g., real-time road conditions). Meanwhile, ETA can also be affected by complex spatial-temporal dependencies between links and crosses in the route. To tackle the above challenges, we propose a deep learning method based on the Wide-Deep-Recurrent (WDR) architecture while modeling the interactions between links and crosses. We adopt Neural Factorization Machines (NFM) to memorize the historical patterns and a multiple layer perceptron (MLP) to integrate various heterogeneous influencing factors. We also model links and crosses jointly to learn their spatial-temporal dependencies in the route. Extensive experiments conducted on a real dataset show that our method achieves a high prediction accuracy. The source code is available at: https://github.com/wanhuaiyu/WDR-LC.