In probabilistic program analysis, quantitative analysis aims at deriving tight numerical bounds for probabilistic properties such as expectation and assertion probability. Most previous works consider numerical bounds over the whole program state space monolithically and do not consider piecewise bounds. Not surprisingly, monolithic bounds are either conservative, or not expressive and succinct enough in general. To derive better bounds, we propose a novel approach for synthesizing piecewise bounds over probabilistic programs. First, we show how to extract useful piecewise information from latticed 𝑘-induction operators, and combine the piecewise information with Optional Stopping Theorem to obtain a general approach to derive piecewise bounds over probabilistic programs. Second, we develop algorithms to synthesize piecewise polynomial bounds, and show that the synthesis can be reduced to bilinear programming in the linear case, and soundly relaxed to semidefinite programming in the polynomial case. Experimental results show that our approach generates tight piecewise bounds for a wide range of benchmarks when compared with the state of the art.

In Bayesian probabilistic programming, a central problem is to estimate the normalised posterior distribution (NPD) of a probabilistic program with conditioning via score (a.k.a. observe ) statements. Most previous approaches address this problem by Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational inference, and therefore could not generate guaranteed outcomes within a finite time limit. Moreover, existing methods for exact inference either impose syntactic restrictions or cannot guarantee successful inference in general. In this work, we propose a novel automated approach to derive guaranteed bounds for NPD via polynomial solving. We first establish a fixed-point theorem for the wide class of score-at-end Bayesian probabilistic programs that terminate almost-surely and have a single bounded score statement at program termination. Then, we propose a multiplicative variant of Optional Stopping Theorem (OST) to address score-recursive Bayesian programs where score statements with weights greater than one could appear inside a loop. Bayesian nonparametric models, enjoying a renaissance in statistics and machine learning, can be represented by score-recursive Bayesian programs and are difficult to handle due to an integrability issue. Finally, we use polynomial solving to implement our fixed-point theorem and OST variant. To improve the accuracy of the polynomial solving, we further propose a truncation operation and the synthesis of multiple bounds over various program inputs. Our approach can handle Bayesian probabilistic programs with unbounded while loops and continuous distributions with infinite supports. Experiments over a wide range of benchmarks show that compared with the most relevant approach (Beutner et al. , PLDI 2022) for guaranteed NPD analysis via recursion unrolling, our approach is more time efficient and derives comparable or even tighter NPD bounds. Furthermore, our approach can handle score-recursive programs which previous approaches could not.