This work introduces a framework to diagnose the strengths and shortcomings of Autonomous Vehicle (AV) collision avoidance technology with synthetic yet realistic potential collision scenarios adapted from real-world, collision-free data. Our framework generates counterfactual collisions with diverse crash properties, e.g., crash angle and velocity, between an adversary and a target vehicle by adding perturbations to the adversary's predicted trajectory from a learned AV behavior model. Our main contribution is to ground these adversarial perturbations in realistic behavior as defined through the lens of data-alignment in the behavior model's parameter space. Then, we cluster these synthetic counterfactuals to identify plausible and representative collision scenarios to form the basis of a test suite for downstream AV system evaluation. We demonstrate our framework using two state-of-the-art behavior prediction models as sources of realistic adversarial perturbations, and show that our scenario clustering evokes interpretable failure modes from a baseline AV policy under evaluation.

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