Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of both linearly and nonlinearly coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with problems other than initial condition, including boundary interaction, butterfly effect, and our inherent lack of physical understanding. At present, existing benchmarks tend to have shorter forecasting range of up-to 15 days, do not include a wide range of operational baselines, and lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a challenging benchmark to extend the predictability range of data-driven weather emulators to S2S timescale. First, ChaosBench is comprised of variables beyond the typical surface-atmospheric ERA5 to also include ocean, ice, and land reanalysis products that span over 45 years to allow for full Earth system emulation that respects boundary conditions. We also propose physics-based, in addition to deterministic and probabilistic metrics, to ensure a physically-consistent ensemble that accounts for butterfly effect. Furthermore, we evaluate on a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from four national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart such as ViT/ClimaX, PanguWeather, GraphCast, and FourCastNetV2. Overall, we find methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fail on S2S task: their performance simply collapse to an unskilled climatology. Nonetheless, we outline and demonstrate several strategies that can extend the predictability range of existing weather emulators, including the use of ensembles, robust control of error propagation, and the use of physics-informed models. Our benchmark, datasets, and instructions are available at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

Nature-based carbon sequestration solution have the potential to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it in vegetation biomass or soil. Forests are covering around 30% of Earth’s land surface and combined with forest longevity, trees/soil have the potential to store carbon from decades to centuries. One key challenge is to develop methodologies for high-resolution measurements of carbon sequestered and assess year to year change. Here, we use deep neural network to generate a wall-to-wall map of AGB within the Continental USA (CONUS) with 30-meter spatial resolution for the year 2021. We combine radar and optical multispectral imagery, with a physical climate parameter of Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF)-based Growth Primary Production (GPP). Validation results show that a masked variation of UNet has the lowest validation RMSE of 37.93 ± 1.36 Mg C/ha, as compared to 81.95 ± 0.01 Mg C/ha (linear regressor), 53.37 ± 0.05 Mg C/ha (gradient boosting), and 52.30 ± 0.03 Mg C/ha for random forest algorithm. Furthermore, models that learn from SIF-based GPP in addition to radar and optical imagery reduce validation RMSE by almost 10% and the standard deviation by 40%.

Nature-based carbon sequestration is currently the most viable solutions to extract CO2from the atmosphere and convert it into carbon. Oceans, soils and forests have the potential to capture and store large amount of carbon for decades. There is an ongoing debate about the permanence of the carbon sequestered by nature-based processes and the precise techniques required to monitor these carbon pools. Remote sensing plays a crucial role in the large scale observations of the Earth surface and provides a scalable method to monitor land use that can affect carbon sequestration. Optical spectral information and radar signals are the best candidates as proxy data to quantify and monitor the change in carbon sequestered. Here we outline the design of an AI enabled framework to monitor, verify, and quantify carbon sequestration in nature-based carbon sequestration processes.

A robust Origin-Destination (OD) prediction is key to urban mobility. A good forecasting model can reduce operational risks and improve service availability, among many other upsides. Here, we examine the use of Graph Convolutional Net-work (GCN) and its hybrid Markov-Chain (GCN-MC) variant to perform a context-aware OD prediction based on a large-scale public transportation dataset in Singapore. Compared with the baseline Markov-Chain algorithm and GCN, the proposed hybrid GCN-MC model improves the prediction accuracy by 37% and 12% respectively. Lastly, the addition of temporal and historical contextual information further improves the performance of the proposed hybrid model by 4 –12%.