In this paper, we present structural abstraction refinement, a novel framework for verifying the threshold problem of probabilistic programs. Our approach represents the structure of a Probabilistic Control-Flow Automaton (PCFA) as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) by abstracting away statement semantics. The maximum reachability of the MDP naturally provides a proper upper bound of the violation probability, termed the structural upper bound . This introduces a fresh “structural” characterization of the relationship between PCFA and MDP, contrasting with the traditional “semantical” view, where the MDP reflects semantics. The method uniquely features a clean separation of concerns between probability and computational semantics that the abstraction focuses solely on probabilistic computation and the refinement handles only the semantics aspect, where the latter allows non-random program verification techniques to be employed without modification. Building upon this feature, we propose a general counterexample-guided abstraction refinement (CEGAR) framework, capable of leveraging established non-probabilistic techniques for probabilistic verification. We explore its instantiations using trace abstraction. Our method was evaluated on a diverse set of examples against state-of-the-art tools, and the experimental results highlight its versatility and ability to handle more flexible structures swiftly.

In Bayesian probabilistic programming, a central problem is to estimate the normalised posterior distribution (NPD) of a probabilistic program with conditioning via score (a.k.a. observe ) statements. Most previous approaches address this problem by Markov Chain Monte Carlo and variational inference, and therefore could not generate guaranteed outcomes within a finite time limit. Moreover, existing methods for exact inference either impose syntactic restrictions or cannot guarantee successful inference in general. In this work, we propose a novel automated approach to derive guaranteed bounds for NPD via polynomial solving. We first establish a fixed-point theorem for the wide class of score-at-end Bayesian probabilistic programs that terminate almost-surely and have a single bounded score statement at program termination. Then, we propose a multiplicative variant of Optional Stopping Theorem (OST) to address score-recursive Bayesian programs where score statements with weights greater than one could appear inside a loop. Bayesian nonparametric models, enjoying a renaissance in statistics and machine learning, can be represented by score-recursive Bayesian programs and are difficult to handle due to an integrability issue. Finally, we use polynomial solving to implement our fixed-point theorem and OST variant. To improve the accuracy of the polynomial solving, we further propose a truncation operation and the synthesis of multiple bounds over various program inputs. Our approach can handle Bayesian probabilistic programs with unbounded while loops and continuous distributions with infinite supports. Experiments over a wide range of benchmarks show that compared with the most relevant approach (Beutner et al. , PLDI 2022) for guaranteed NPD analysis via recursion unrolling, our approach is more time efficient and derives comparable or even tighter NPD bounds. Furthermore, our approach can handle score-recursive programs which previous approaches could not.

Probabilistic pushdown automata (recursive state machines) are a widely known model of probabilistic computation associated with many decidable problems concerning termination (time) and linear-time model checking. Higher-order recursion schemes (HORS) are a prominent formalism for the analysis of higher-order computation.