Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric Data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the US Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and larger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use, especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

The problem of sample complexity of online reinforcement learning is often studied in the literature without taking into account any partial knowledge about the system dynamics that could potentially accelerate the learning process. In this paper, we study the sample complexity of online Q-learning methods when some prior knowledge about the dynamics is available or can be learned efficiently. We focus on systems that evolve according to an additive disturbance model of the form S_{h+1} = ƒ(S_h, A_h) + W_h, where ƒ represents the underlying system dynamics, and W_h are unknown disturbances independent of states and actions. In the setting of finite episodic Markov decision processes with S states, A actions, and episode length H, we present an optimistic Q-learning algorithm that achieves Õ(Poly(H)√T) regret under perfect knowledge of ƒ, where T is the total number of interactions with the system. This is in contrast to the typical Õ(Poly(H)√SAT) regret for existing Q-learning methods. Further, if only a noisy estimate ƒ_hat of ƒ is available, our method can learn an approximately optimal policy in a number of samples that is independent of the cardinalities of state and action spaces. The sub-optimality gap depends on the approximation error ƒ_hat − ƒ, as well as the Lipschitz constant of the corresponding optimal value function. Our approach does not require modeling of the transition probabilities and enjoys the same memory complexity as model-free methods.

We study the problem of approximating the joint spectral radius (JSR) of a finite set of matrices. Our approach is based on the analysis of the underlying switched linear system via inequalities imposed between multiple Lyapunov functions associated to a labeled directed graph. Inspired by concepts in automata theory and symbolic dynamics, we define a class of graphs called path-complete graphs, and show that any such graph gives rise to a method for proving stability of the switched system. This enables us to derive several asymptotically tight hierarchies of semidefinite programming relaxations that unify and generalize many existing techniques such as common quadratic, common sum of squares, maximum/minimum-of-quadratics Lyapunov functions. We characterize all path-complete graphs consisting of two nodes on an alphabet of two matrices and compare their performance. For the general case of any set of n x n matrices we propose semidefinite programs of modest size that approximate the JSR within a multiplicative factor of 1/4√n of the true value. We establish a notion of duality among path-complete graphs and a constructive converse Lyapunov theorem for maximum/minimum-of-quadratics Lyapunov functions.